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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Resurgent Divergence

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Resurgent Divergence

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Resurgent Divergence

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The past two weeks have seen divergent movements in structural positioning across European bond futures positioning.
  • While the past week has mostly seen long-setting and short cover, Gilts have overall moved away from long territory, with Schatz increasingly short.

Full PDF Analysis:

MNIPi18Jan2023.pdf

  • GERMANY: Schatz remains the most short contract structurally in Europe, with some short covering in the most recent week of trade doing little to change that. However, Bobl and Buxl have moved from "very short" to merely "short" (with short cover in Bobl and long-setting in Buxl in the past week), while Bund has moved from short to flat (longs set last week).
  • OAT: Positioning is has shifted to flat, having sequentially moved from short and very short in our previous two updates. Longs were set in the most recent week of trade.
  • GILT: Positioning has moved away from the cusp of long territory to flat, with some short covering in the past week.
  • BTP: Positioning remains short, though that comes after a brief dip into "very short" territory. Longs were set in the most recent week.

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