January 07, 2025 13:12 GMT
MNI Europe Pi: Starting Year Mixed
Bond futures positioning as of early January looks more tilted to the short side compared with the pre-holiday period.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- We last updated Europe Pi before the quarterly rolls in late November/early December - at the time, German contracts and OATs were tilting to flat/short, with Gilts and BTP in long territory.
- Positioning as of early January looks slightly more tilted to the short side since then, though keep in mind that the roll period plus holiday trade may distort the signal somewhat.
Full PDF Analysis:
- GERMANY: German contracts open 2025 in increasingly short structural positioning. Bobl remains the "shortest" contract at very short, while Buxl and Bund have shifted to short from flat previously. Schatz is now flat, but had been "long" in mid-Nov. Holiday period trade pointed to shorts being set.
- OAT: OAT is in short positioning, drifting away from the fluctuating flat/long pattern that started with July's elections. Trade in the most recent week was indicative of short setting.
- GILT: Gilt remains in long territory, though less extreme than the very long positioning in late Jul/early Aug. The most recent week saw trade indicative of long setting.
- BTP: BTP positioning is in long territory, maintaining its reversal from shorts in the summer. But it was "very long" in November and long reduction was seen in the most recent week.
Keep reading...Show less
197 words