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MNI Europe Pi Update: Gilt Longs Re-Emerging Ahead Of ECB (And BoE)

BONDS

Heading into the ECB decision Thursday (and BoE the following week), European bond futures positioning has mostly moved in a cautious direction.

  • Over the most recent week (the 5 sessions to Jul 25), OI and price data is suggestive of short covering in Buxl and OAT, and some longs closed in Bobl and Bund. Schatz saw some fresh short-setting, while BTP and Gilt stand out with longs set over the past week.
  • Yesterday saw longs reduced across all contracts apart from Schatz and Gilt which saw shorts set.
  • Versus our Jul 17 Pi update, Schatz structural positioning now reads flat (vs "short" previously), Bobl and Bund remain "very short", with Buxl drifting into slightly "short" territory (vs "flat" previously). OAT and BTP positioning remains short and flat, respectively. There are nacent longs seen in Gilt (vs flat previously), where it had last been in early May, and for most of Q2 (and as noted above, we saw Gilt longs set over the past week).
  • Our next full Pi positioning update will be published Monday Jul 31.

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