MNI European Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Thursday is the last day of the month and throws up a full

data calendar on both sides of the Atlantic.

     The European calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the

German retail sales data and the ILO employment report.

     At 0645GMT, the French producer prices and harmonised consumer prices will

be released.

     Spanish retail sales data will cross the wire at 0700GMT, with German

unemployment numbers expected at 0755GMT and the German VDMA machine orders data

at 0800GMT.

     In the UK, at 0725GMT, Bank of England MPC member Michael Saunders is

expected to speak in Cardiff, with an audience/media Q&A to follow.

     The main Euro area releases are expected at 0900GMT, when the EMU consumer

inflation and unemployment numbers are published. Italian inflation numbers are

set for publication at the same time.

     Across the Atlantic, the US calendar gets underway at 1130GMT, with the

publication of the Challenger Monthly Layoff Intentions

     At 1230GMT, the latest Jobless Claims and the Personal Income data will be

released.

     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise and additional

2,000 to 236,000 in the August 26 week after a 2,000 increase in the previous

week. The four-week moving average, which has declined for four straight weeks,

would continue that streak, falling by 1,250 in the coming week as the 241,000

level in the July 29 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI

forecast is correct and there are no revisions.

     Personal income is expected to post a 0.3% increase in July, as payrolls

rose by 209,000, average weekly hours held steady at 34.5 hours, and hourly

earnings rose by 0.3%. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise by 0.4%, as retail

sales jumped 0.6% in the month and were still up 0.5% excluding a 1.2% gain in

motor vehicle sales. Core retail sales (also ex. gas) were up 0.5% in the month,

while sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and food services rose

0.6%, indicating underlying strength. The core PCE price index is expected to

post a 0.1% increase in July, which should keep the y/y measure well below 2%.

     Canadian Q2 GDP data will be released at the same time.

     At 1300GMT, the Milwaukee Manufacturing ISM index will cross the wire,

followed by the MNI Chicago PMI at 1345GMT.

     The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rise to a reading of 59.7 in August

after reversing to 58.9 in July. Other regional data already released suggest

solid expansion, particularly in the Empire State region.

     At 1400GMT, the NAR pending home sales data will be released, followed by

the DOE Natural Gas Stocks at 1430GMT.

     Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan will participate in a

moderated Q&A session at the North American Strategy for Competitiveness in

Farmers Branch, Texas, with audience Q&A, starting at 1530GMT.

     Late US data will see the release of the Fed's Weekly M2 Money Supply Data

at 2030GMT.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com