MNI European Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Across the Atlantic, the US calendar gets underway at

0830ET, with the publication of the latest jobless claims data and the January

personal income numbers.

     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 4,000 to 226,000

in the February 24 week after a surprise decline of 7,000 in the previous week.

The four-week moving average would fall by only 1,000 in the coming week, as the

230,000 level in the January 27 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the

MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.

     Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in December, as payrolls rose

by 200,000, and hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, but the average weekly hours

slipped to 34.3 hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise by only 0.2% after

stronger gains in recent month, with durables spending soft due to a decline in

auto spending. Total retail sales fell by 0.3% in the month and were flat

excluding a 1.3% drop in motor vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos, gas,

building materials and food services also flat, indicating underlying weakness.

The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.3% increase in January

following a 0.2% gain in December, but the year/year rate would remain well

below 2.0%, rising modestly to 1.6%.

     Canadian Current account data is set for release at the same time.

     At 0945ET, the final US February Markit Manufacturing Index will be

published, followed by the ISM Manufacturing Index and construction spending at

1000ET.

     The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall further to a reading of

58.9 in February after dipping modestly to 59.1 in January. Regional conditions

data have been mixed.

     Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.3% in January. Housing

starts surged in the month, suggesting private residential building continued

its string of recent gains.

     Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers the second leg of his

semiannual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in

Washington, starting at 1000ET.

     The latest US Natural Gas Stocks data will be published at 1030ET. Late US

data sees the Fed's Weekly m2 Money Supply Data published at 1630ET.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com