MNI European Morning Commodities Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI European Commodities Technical Analysis report

- https://tinyurl.com/qcogf49

     ICE BRENT: (F18) Triangle Base Gives Way

*RES 4: $65.45 Aug 31 high 2015

*RES 3: $64.65 Nov 7 high

*RES 2: $64.27 Nov 10 high

*RES 1: $63.88 Hourly base Nov 10, now resistance

*PRICE: $63.13 @0118GMT                                    

*SUP 1: $62.61 Nov 13 low

*SUP 2: $62.32 50 % Fibo of $60.00-$64.65

*SUP 3: $61.70 Nov 1 high, now support

*SUP 4: $60.92 38.2% Fibo of $54.85-$64.65

*COMMENTARY: After making fresh highs for the year, the recent rally has finally

encountered resistance from the Nov 7 high at $64.65. Spent most of last week

attempting to break higher, the triangular consolidation above $62.95 support

has now been lost. Below the latter suggests we have likely seen a 5 wave rise

complete since the early Oct low at $54.85. This sees support next from

$62.32-$61.70, ahead of stronger $60.92 level. Resistance $63.88-$64.27.

     ICE GASOIL: (Z17) $561.00-$557.75 Becomes Support

*RES 4: $596.55 76.4% Fibo of $671.25-$354.75

*RES 3: $586.40 Daily bull channel top

*RES 2: $583.75 August 2015 high

*RES 1: $571.00 Nov 9 high

*PRICE: $564.25 @0130GMT                                   

*SUP 1: $561.00 Nov 9 low

*SUP 2: $557.75 Nov 8 low

*SUP 3: $554.00 Nov 3 high, now support

*SUP 4: $550.45 61.8% Fibo of $537.75-$571.00

*COMMENTARY: The $571.00 area has proved difficult to break above this month and

near term focus has switched to $561.00 support. Ideally any setbacks are held

above here, if the rally is to continue at this stage and avoid a deeper

correction of the gains seen since the Nov 2 low at $537.75. This would suggest

scope for a $557.75 fall where next questions are asked. Above $571.00 and

attention will switch to $583.75-$586.40 next.

     NYMEX HO: (Z17) Nov 9 Low At $1.9178 Becomes The Focus

*RES 4: $1.9785 50% Fibo of $2.7514-$1.2055

*RES 3: $1.9627 Weekly bull channel top

*RES 2: $1.9561 Nov 10 high

*RES 1: $1.9446 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.9321 @0135GMT                                   

*SUP 1: $1.9277 Nov 10 low

*SUP 2: $1.9178 Nov 9 low

*SUP 3: $1.9048 Nov 8 low

*SUP 4: $1.9020 Nov 1 high, now support

*COMMENTARY: The rally faltered at $1.9561 last week, suggesting that we may be

close to completing a 5 wave rise since the mid June low at $1.4154. Eyes are

now on the Nov 9 low at $1.9178. A loss here would be the first sign of weakness

and put pressure back on the Nov 8 low at $1.9048. In the interim, any recovery

has to deal with $1.9446 resistance before the way becomes clear for another

upside challenge to $1.9561 and perhaps the bull channel top.

     NYMEX RBOB: (Z17) $1.8070 Loss Swings Bias Lower

*RES 4: $1.8402 Nov 8 high

*RES 3: $1.8291 Nov 13 high

*RES 2: $1.8185 Congestion area Nov 9-10

*RES 1: $1.8070 Nov 10 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1.7847 @0150GMT                                   

*SUP 1: $1.7829 Nov 13 low

*SUP 2: $1.7767 Nov 6 low

*SUP 3: $1.7687/92 Nov 3 low, 1.618 swing of $1.7963-$1.8402

*SUP 4: $1.7587 76.4% Fibo of $1.7335-$1.8402

*COMMENTARY: A high of $1.8402 last week before succumbing to some overbought

conditions. The subsequent pullback has now lost key hourly support from

$1.8070, which disturbs recent upside momentum. Loss would suggest that we are

ready for some correction, possibly of the gains accrued since the Oct 9 low at

$1.5275. Initial support now from above $1.7767 and then more importantly

$1.7692-$1.7687. Resistance now from that $1.8070 and then $1.8185.

     NYMEX WTI: (Z17) Correction Risk Continues

*RES 4: $58.44 Jan 2 high

*RES 3: $57.92 Nov 8 high

*RES 2: $57.53 Nov 9 high

*RES 1: $57.15 Nov 13 high

*PRICE: $56.73 @0200GMT                                   

*SUP 1: $56.30 Nov 13 low

*SUP 2: $55.90 50% Fibo of $53.89-$57.92

*SUP 3: $55.43 61.8% Fibo of $53.89-$57.92

*SUP 4: $55.22 Nov 1 high, now support

*COMMENTARY: Still suffering as a result of the bearish outside day last

Wednesday. In this respect, the loss of firstly $56.51 support and then the Nov

8 low at $56.41 has increased the risk for a downside correction. A low of

$56.30 so far, as we head toward next $55.90-$55.43 supports. In the meantime,

$57.15-$57.53 provides near term resistance against any recovery.

     GOLD TECHS: Eyes Now On $1271.8 Support

*RES 4: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 2: $1289.9 61.8% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 1: $1282.7 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1277.0 @0203GMT

*SUP 1: $1271.8 Nov 7 low

*SUP 2: $1265.5 Nov 3 low

*SUP 3: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: $1260.7 Oct 2 low

*COMMENTARY* After trying at the back end of last week, the rally was unable to

challenge and clear $1289.9 Fibo resistance. As a result, we have seen a swift

retreat, to close the week just above the Nov 7 low at $1271.8. Will need to

remain above this latter level, if the upside momentum gained since the $1265.5

low at the beginning of the month, is to survive. Resistance falls in the

meantime, $1282.7 now the bar to any upside renaissance.

     SILVER TECHS: Key Support Remains From The $16.610-$16.604 Area

*RES 4: $17.274 76.4% Fibo of $17.479-$16.610

*RES 3: $17.266 Nov 6 high

*RES 2: $17.105 Nov 10 high

*RES 1: $17.076 Nov 13 high

*PRICE: $17.026 @0215GMT                                   

*SUP 1: $16.860 Hourly support 

*SUP 2: $16.782 Nov 3 low

*SUP 3: $16.610 Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: $16.604 76.4% Fibo of $16.334-$17.479

*COMMENTARY: The recent consolidation over the course of the last month,

highlights the prominence of the 76.4% Fibo retrace level, on occasions such as

these. In the bigger picture, we now await a break out of the $17.274-$16.604

range, before we can acquire any sense of direction. Within the range

$17.076-$17.105 provides resistance and $16.860-$16.782 support.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com