MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

7 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) 162.50-63 Support Region Remains Key

*RES 4: 164.43 Low June 19 now resistance

*RES 3: 164.13 Low June 16 now resistance

*RES 2: 163.51 High Aug 4

*RES 1: 163.26 Hourly support Aug 4 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.17

*SUP 1: 162.89 Low Aug 4

*SUP 2: 162.63 Low Aug 2

*SUP 3: 162.50 High July 27 now support

*SUP 4: 162.07 Hourly support Aug 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls are struggling to gain traction above 55 (163.13) & 100

(163.14) DMAs with Friday's dip less than ideal. The 162.50-63 support region

remains key. Bears need a close below 162.50 to shift focus back to

161.02-162.07 where the daily bull channel base and 21-DMA (161.90) are noted.

The 163.51 resistance is key with bulls needing a close above to retain initial

focus on 164.13-43. The Bollinger top 163.27 is the key concern for bulls.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) 132.23 & 132.48 Levels Key

*RES 4: 132.99 Falling daily TL 

*RES 3: 132.95 High June 21 

*RES 2: 132.85 High June 26 

*RES 1: 132.48 Low June 22 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.36

*SUP 1: 132.26 Low Aug 3

*SUP 2: 132.23 Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support

*SUP 3: 132.09 Hourly support July 28

*SUP 4: 132.01 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to flirt with the 100-DMA (132.40) with

bulls needing a close above the key 132.48 resistance to confirm breaks of 55

(132.34) & 100-DMAs, shifting focus to 132.85-99. O/B studies and the Bollinger

top (132.50) remain concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears need a close below

132.23 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to 131-82-90 where the

21-DMA and bull channel base are located.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: 112.180 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.150 55-WMA 

*RES 2: 112.140 21-WMA 

*RES 1: 112.110 High Aug 4

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.080

*SUP 1: 112.060 Low July 31 

*SUP 2: 112.050 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: 112.030 55-DMA, Daily bull channel base 

*SUP 4: 112.020 Low July 28

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-WMA is less than ideal for bulls with

daily studies at O/B levels & the Bollinger top (112.130) limiting follow

through. The contract remains heavy with bears now focused on layers of support

112.000-060 where key DMAs and the bull channel base are situated. Bulls now

need a close above 112.110 to gain breathing room and above the 55-WMA to

reconfirm a bullish bias targeting 112.180-230.

GILT TECHS: (U17) 128.18-35 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 128.68 High June 21 

*RES 3: 127.35 Low June 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 127.28 Low June 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: 127.18 Daily Bull channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 126.54

*SUP 1: 126.50 Hourly support Aug 3 

*SUP 2: 126.21 Hourly resistance Aug 2 now support 

*SUP 3: 125.95 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 125.78 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Time spent above 55 (126.91) & 100 (126.86) DMAs was brief with the

sell-off and bearish close a concern for bulls and seeing pressure back on

126.21-50. Bears look for a close below 126.50 to ease bullish pressure and

below 126.21 to shift focus back to 125.62-95. The 127.35 resistance remains key

this week. Bulls need a close above 127.35 to shift focus to 128.68-129.19 where

June highs are located.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) 55-DMA Support Key

*RES 4: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 3: 99.650 High June 21

*RES 2: 99.628 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.620 High Aug 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.610

*SUP 1: 99.587 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.567 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.560 Low July 20, Low Aug 3

*SUP 4: 99.540 200-DMA, Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA confirmed significance providing the base for an

aggressive rally that saw bulls regain control and focus back on 99.650-690. The

55-DMA is noted as initial support with bears needing a close below to ease

bullish pressure and shift focus back to 99.560-567. Below 99.560 is needed to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and pressure 99.540 where the bull channel base

and 200-DMA are situated.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below Channel Base

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.305 - 2017 High June 14 & 22 

*RES 1: 100.300 - High July 25, High Aug 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.295

*SUP 1: 100.285 - Low July 25 - 28

*SUP 2: 100.278 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.275 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 100.257 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite O/B daily studies correcting, bears failed to manage a

break of 100.285. Bears need a close below 100.285 to ease bullish pressure and

below the daily bull channel base to shift focus back to 100.244-257. While

100.285 supports bulls retain the upper hand and focus on a break of 100.305

needed to target the 100.330-360 region. The Bollinger top and O/B studies

remain the key concerns for bulls.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 126-200 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 126-160 - Low June 21 now resistance 

*RES 2: 126-090 - Hourly support Aug 4 now resistance 

*RES 1: 126-050 - Hourly resistance Aug 4

*PRICE: 126-010 @ 0140GMT

*SUP 1: 125-290 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support

*SUP 2: 125-280 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 125-150 - Low July 25, 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 125-070 - High July 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to test the 126-160 resistance Friday with the

sell-off leaving the contract looking a little heavy. Bears now need a close

below the 21-DMA to add weight to their case for a correction with below the

100-DMA (125-150) needed to shift focus back to 124-110/250. The 126-050/160

resistance region is now key. Bulls look for a close above 126-090 to gain

breathing room and above 126-160 to shift focus to 126-290/127-080.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14

*RES 3: 2.321 - High Aug 1

*RES 2: 2.312 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: 2.289 - High Aug 4

*PRICE: 2.269 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.257 - Hourly support Aug 4 

*SUP 2: 2.237 - Hourly resistance Aug 4 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.218 - Low Aug 3 

*SUP 4: 2.177 - High June 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rally Friday provided bulls breathing room but a close above

the 200-DMA is needed to confirm a return in focus to 2.237-396 where the daily

bear channel top (2.343) is noted. The 2.237-2.257 support region is now key.

Bears need a close below 2.237 to ease renewed bullish pressure and below 2.218

to reconfirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. The Bollinger base (2.211) is the key

concern for bears with potential to limit follow through.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Focus Back On Key Resistance Layers 

*RES 4: 3539.48 High July 13 

*RES 3: 3529.99 High July 20 

*RES 2: 3523.95 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 3522.57 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3507.41

*SUP 1: 3490.49 High Aug 1 now support 

*SUP 2: 3472.05 Hourly resistance Aug 4 now support 

*SUP 3: 3454.06 Hourly support Aug 3 

*SUP 4: 3438.15 Low Aug 4

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the range base and last week's low continued

Friday with the relatively bullish close seeing focus back on the

3522.87-3555.37 resistance region. Bulls look for a close above 3555.37 to

confirm a bullish bias and initially target 3615.06 with overall focus on 2017

highs. Layers of support remain with bears needing a close below 3490.49 to ease

bullish pressure and below 3472.06 to shift focus back to 3431.19-3438.15.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]