MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

16 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) 164.25 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 164.79 Low June 21 now resistance

*RES 3: 164.64 High Aug 10

*RES 2: 164.25 Hourly resistance Aug 14

*RES 1: 163.91 Hourly resistance Aug 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.78

*SUP 1: 163.45 Low Aug 15

*SUP 2: 163.33 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 163.18 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 162.82 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction from Friday's high continues with correcting O/B

daily studies adding weight to the bearish case. Layers of resistance are

building with bulls needing a close above 164.25 to gain breathing room and

above 164.79 to confirm focus on 165.44-55. While 164.25 caps bears remain

focused on 162.50-163.33 where key DMAs are situated. Bears look for a close

below 162.50 to end bullish hopes, initially targeting 161.37.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) Bears Focused On 132.17-50

*RES 4: 132.95 High June 21 

*RES 3: 132.87 High Aug 11 

*RES 2: 132.79 Hourly resistance Aug 14 

*RES 1: 132.65 Hourly resistance Aug 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.62

*SUP 1: 132.50 Hourly support Aug 9

*SUP 2: 132.46 High Aug 8 now support

*SUP 3: 132.45 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 132.34 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation now sees pressure back on layers of support

132.17-50 where key DMAs are situated. Bears need a close below 132.17 to end

bullish hopes, initially targeting 131.82 with overall focus shifting to 131.30

July lows. Correcting O/B studies are now weighing. Initial resistance is noted

at 132.65 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room. Above 132.79

is needed to return focus to 132.87-95.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) Double Daily Top, 112.100-130 Support Key

*RES 4: 112.230 Monthly High June 12 

*RES 3: 112.200 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 112.190 High Aug 11 & 14 

*RES 1: 112.165 Hourly resistance Aug 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.160

*SUP 1: 112.140 21-WMA 

*SUP 2: 112.130 High Aug 1 

*SUP 3: 112.100 Hourly support Aug 9, Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: 112.070 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation left a double daily top in place as resistance

layers begin to accumulate. The Bollinger top remains the key concern having

recently limited follow through. Bears look for a close below 112.130 to confirm

an easing of bullish pressure and below 112.100 to shift focus back to

112.020-070 where key DMAs are situated. Bulls now need a close above 112.190

ease pressure on support layers and retain focus on 112.230 June highs.

GILT TECHS: (U17) 127.87 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 129.01 High June 15 

*RES 3: 128.68 High June 21 

*RES 2: 128.24 High Aug 11 

*RES 1: 127.87 High Aug 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 127.40

*SUP 1: 127.33 Low Aug 15 

*SUP 2: 127.06 Low Aug 9 

*SUP 3: 126.76 Hourly resistance Aug 7 now support 

*SUP 4: 126.50 Hourly support Aug 3

*COMMENTARY: Lower daily highs and lows are a concern for bulls as daily studies

correcting from O/B add weight to the case for a decent correction. Layers of

support remain 162.54-127.06 where key DMAs are situated. Bears need a close

below 126.54 to end bullish hopes, initially targeting 125.62 with overall focus

shifting to 124.71-95. The 127.87 resistance is key today with a close above

needed to return focus to 128.24-68.

SHORT-STERING TECHS: (Z17) 99.620 & 99.650 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 3: 99.683 Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.655 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.650 High June 21 & Aug 11, 14 & 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.640

*SUP 1: 99.630 Low Aug 11, 14 & 15

*SUP 2: 99.620 Low Aug 8 & 9

*SUP 3: 99.603 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.600 Low Aug 4

*COMMENTARY: The 99.650 resistance continues to cap attempts to break for a

fresh leg higher targeting 99.690 2017 highs. Initial support is noted at 99.630

but bears look for a close below 99.620 to gain breathing room and below 99.600

now needed to shift focus to 55 & 100-DMAs 99.588-590. The Bollinger top

(99.656) remains the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow

through.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.275-300 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.310 - 2017 High Aug 11 - 15

*RES 1: 100.308 - Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305

*SUP 1: 100.300 - Low Aug 11 - 15

*SUP 2: 100.293 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.282 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.275 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The support at 100.285 provided the base for a rally and fresh 2017

& 10mth highs with bullish focus now on the 100.330-360 region last seen in Oct

2016. Initial support remains at 100.300 with bears needing a close below to

gain breathing room and shift focus back to 100.275-293. Overall bears need a

close below 100.275 to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to 100.245-265

where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 125-290 Support Key

*RES 4: 127-030 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 126-290 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 126-220 - Hourly resistance Aug 14 

*RES 1: 126-140 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: 126-040 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 125-300 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 2: 125-290 - Low Aug 8

*SUP 3: 125-210 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 125-200 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: U17 remains heavy having closed marginally below 21 (126-050) & 55

(126-040) DMAs. Immediate focus is now on 125-290/300 where the daily bull

channel base is noted. Bears need a close below 125-290 to end bullish hopes

with below 125-150 targeting 124-210/250. The 126-140/220 resistance is now key.

Bulls need a close above 126-140 to ease bearish pressure and above 126-220 to

shift focus back to 126-290/127-080.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Immediate Focus On 2.289

*RES 4: 2.337 - High July 25

*RES 3: 2.328 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: 2.323 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: 2.289 - High Aug 4 & 8

*PRICE: 2.271 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.250 - Hourly support Aug 15 

*SUP 2: 2.229 - High Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.203 - Hourly support Aug 14 

*SUP 4: 2.177 - High June 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus is now on the 2.289 resistance with bulls needing a

close above to confirm focus on tests of 2.323-2.337 where the 200-DMA and bear

channel top are situated. Above 2.337 is now needed to hint at a move back to

2017 highs with above 2.398 confirming. The 2.229-250 support region is key.

Bears need a close below 2.229 to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to

2.175-177 where the 55-WMA is noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3424.81-3435.22 Support Region Key 

*RES 4: 3507.67 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 3490.49 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 2: 3474.71 Hourly resistance July 9 

*RES 1: 3471.96 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3461.91

*SUP 1: 3435.22 Hourly support Aug 14 

*SUP 2: 3424.81 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 3390.49 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 3386.93 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalize on Monday's sell-off with the index

bouncing from ahead of the 200-DMA and bear channel base, easing immediate

bearish pressure and returning focus to 3490.49-3539.48 where the 55 & 100-DMAs

and bear channel top are situated. The 3424.81-3435.22 support remains key.

Bears need a close below 3424.81 to return focus to 3355.40-3390.49 where the

200-DMA is located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]