MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

18 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 164.08

*RES 4: 165.44 High June 26

*RES 3: 164.92 Falling daily TL

*RES 2: 164.79 Low June 21 now resistance

*RES 1: 164.64 High Aug 10

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 164.32

*SUP 1: 164.08 High Aug 15 now support

*SUP 2: 163.69 Hourly support Aug 16

*SUP 3: 163.59 Hourly resistance Aug 17 now support

*SUP 4: 163.51 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back to key DMAs and the bull channel base

has taken its toll with a close above the key 164.25 resistance that now sees

immediate focus on 164.64-92 where the Bollinger top (164.83) is noted. Above

164.92 is needed to shift focus to 165.44-55 where June highs are located. Bears

now need a close below 164.08 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below the

21-DMA (163.04) to hint at a decent correction with below 162.36 confirming.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) Remains Supported On Dips

*RES 4: 132.95 High June 21 

*RES 3: 132.87 High Aug 11 

*RES 2: 132.79 Hourly resistance Aug 14 

*RES 1: 132.75 High Aug 15 - 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.74

*SUP 1: 132.57 Hourly support Aug 16

*SUP 2: 132.49 Low Aug 16

*SUP 3: 132.46 High Aug 8 now support

*SUP 4: 132.33 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite daily studies correcting from O/B and weighing bulls take

comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA with bounces

retaining focus on 132.87-95. Bulls need a close above 132.95 to reconfirm a

bullish bias initially targeting 133.26. Layers of support are noted 132.12-57

with bears needing a close below the 100-DMA to add weight to their case and

below the bull channel base (132.12) to initially target 131.82.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) Above 112.190 Targets 112.230/270

*RES 4: 112.270 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.230 Monthly High June 12 

*RES 2: 112.200 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 112.190 High Aug 11 & 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.160

*SUP 1: 112.140 21-WMA 

*SUP 2: 112.130 High Aug 1 

*SUP 3: 112.120 Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: 112.100 Hourly support Aug 9

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 112.130-190 persists with bulls taking comfort in

support emerging on dips. The Bollinger top remains the key concern having

recently limited follow through. Bears look for a close below 112.130 to confirm

an easing of bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA (112.090) to target

112.020-060 where key DMAs are situated. Bulls need a close above 112.190 ease

pressure on support layers and reconfirm a bullish bias targeting 112.230-270.

GILT TECHS: (U17) Bounces From Layers of Support

*RES 4: 129.01 High June 15 

*RES 3: 128.68 High June 21 

*RES 2: 128.24 High Aug 11 

*RES 1: 127.87 High Aug 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 127.68

*SUP 1: 127.22 Low Aug 16 

*SUP 2: 127.06 Low Aug 9 

*SUP 3: 126.81 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 126.76 Hourly resistance Aug 7 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 126.54-127.06 region continues and is

less than ideal for bears who need a close below 126.54  to hint at a correction

and below the 21-DMA confirming. Correcting O/B studies remain the key concern

for bulls. Topside the 127.87 resistance remains key with a close above needed

to return focus to 128.24-68. Above 128.24 is needed to reconfirm the bullish

bias.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) 99.620 & 99.650 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 3: 99.683 Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.662 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.650 High June 21 & Aug Repeatedly

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.640

*SUP 1: 99.630 Repeated Daily Lows Aug

*SUP 2: 99.620 Low Aug 8 & 9

*SUP 3: 99.609 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.600 Low Aug 4

*COMMENTARY: The 99.650 resistance continues to cap attempts to break for a

fresh leg higher targeting 99.690 2017 highs. Initial support is noted at 99.630

but bears look for a close below 99.620 to gain breathing room and below the

21-DMA to shift focus to 55 & 100-DMAs 99.588-593. The Bollinger top (99.662)

remains the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Sideways Trading Defining This Week

*RES 4: 100.375 - High Oct 4 

*RES 3: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 1: 100.310 - 2017 High Aug 11 - 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305

*SUP 1: 100.300 - Low Aug 11 - 16

*SUP 2: 100.297 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.284 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.275 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The support at 100.285 provided the base for a rally and fresh 2017

& 10mth highs with bullish focus now on the 100.330-360 region last seen in Oct

2016. Sideways trading has defined the week so far. Layers of support remain

with bears needing a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below

the 55-DMA to signal a correction that initially targets the 100-DMA (100.269).

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Focus Back On 126-290

*RES 4: 127-080 - Monthly High June 14 

*RES 3: 127-070 - 200-WMA 

*RES 2: 127-060 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 126-290 - High June 26

*PRICE: 126-230 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 126-200 - Hourly support Aug 17

*SUP 2: 126-110 - Low Aug 17

*SUP 3: 126-010 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 125-290 - Low Aug 8

*COMMENTARY: The 125-290/010 support region confirmed significance Wednesday

with the contact recovering from a close below 21 (126-060) & 55 (126-040) DMAs.

Bulls have gained breathing room with focus back on the 126-290 level. Bulls

need a close above 126-290 to reconfirm the bullish bias and initially target

127-060/080. The 126-110 support is key today with bears needing a close below

to shift focus back to 125-290/126-010.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.174-177 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.289 - High Aug 4 & 8

*RES 3: 2.264 - Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance

*RES 2: 2.250 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17

*PRICE: 2.203 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.185 - Low Aug 17 

*SUP 2: 2.177 - High June 21 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.174 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: 2.121 - Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: The 2.289 resistance confirmed significance with the yield rejected

ahead of this level and the sell-off resulting in bearish closes. Initial focus

has now returned to the 2.174-177 supports with a close below needed to confirm

focus on 2.053-121 where 2017 lows and the 100-WMA are situated. Layers of

resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a close above 2.264

to shift focus back to 2.289.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bear Channel Remains Intact 

*RES 4: 3524.68 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 3504.49 55-DMA, Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: 3497.29 High Aug 16 

*RES 1: 3484.66 High Aug 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3461.97

*SUP 1: 3454.26 Low Aug 15 

*SUP 2: 3435.22 Hourly support Aug 14 

*SUP 3: 3424.81 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 3391.30 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Once again attempts to break higher have been stifled by layers of

resistance 3504.49-3539.48 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are situated.

Initial support is now noted at 3454.26 with bears now needing a close below to

gain traction below the 21-DMA (3470.41) and confirm focus on 3390.49-3391.30

where Aug lows and the 200-DMA are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 3539.48 to end bearish hopes.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]