MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

28 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Below 160.50 Targets 159.58-79

*RES 4: 161.87 21-DMA

*RES 3: 161.62 Low Sept 26 now resistance

*RES 2: 161.44 Hourly support Sept 25a now resistance

*RES 1: 161.06 Hourly resistance Sept 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.96

*SUP 1: 160.71 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 160.54 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 160.50 Low Aug 16

*SUP 4: 159.79 Low Aug 2

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 163.43 sees the contract flirting with 55

(100.91) & 100 (100.71) DMAs although follow through has been a little lacking.

The Bollinger base is the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow

through. Bears now look for a close below 160.50 to shift initial focus to

159.58-79 and overall focus back to July lows (157.55). Bulls now look for a

close above 161.06 to gain breathing room and above 162.15 to end bearish hopes.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) 55-DMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: 131.49 High Sept 15 

*RES 3: 131.44 High Sept 27, 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 131.32 Hourly resistance Sept 27 

*RES 1: 131.22 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.15

*SUP 1: 131.04 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 131.03 Low Sept 27

*SUP 3: 130.95 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 130.90 Low Aug 16

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA (131.04) supported last week and is again supporting

following the topside failures around the 21-DMA (131.44). The Bollinger band

base is seen as the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow

through. Bears now need a close below 130.90 to add weight to the case for a

move back to 129.72 July lows. Bulls now need a close above 131.32 to gain

breathing room and above 131.64 to shift focus higher.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.180 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 112.230 Low Sept 8 & 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: 112.205 High Sept 14 

*RES 2: 112.180 High Sept 25 

*RES 1: 112.150 Hourly resistance Sept 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.135

*SUP 1: 112.105 Low Sept 27 

*SUP 2: 112.100 Low Sept 25 

*SUP 3: 112.077 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 112.065 Low Sept 21

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of 112.180 as it continues to

flirt with the 21-DMA (112.172). Bulls still need a close above 112.180 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and initially pressure 112.230-285 where the

100-DMA (112.237) is located. While 112.180 caps bears retain an advantage and

remain focused on 112.049-065 where the 55-DMA is situated. Below the 55-DMA

hints at a move back to 111.760 with below 112.015 to confirm.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) Below 123.36 Targets 2017 Low

*RES 4: 124.91 Low Sept 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: 124.65 High Sept 19 

*RES 2: 124.36 High Sept 20 

*RES 1: 123.97 High Sept 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.66

*SUP 1: 123.36 Low Sept 21 

*SUP 2: 123.17 Low Feb 2 

*SUP 3: 122.60 2017 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 4: 122.55 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Very O/S daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern

for bears. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above 123.97

to gain breathing room and above 124.65 to shift immediate focus to 125.21.

Bears remain focused on 123.36 with a close below needed to confirm focus on

tests of 2017 lows.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.360

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 2: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.330

*SUP 1: 99.310 Low Sept 20

*SUP 2: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 3: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 4: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*COMMENTARY: Losses continued for H18 last week with bearish focus on 99.230 and

a close below needed to target 98.980-99.040 where Apr & May 2016 lows are

situated. Very O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Initial resistance

is still noted at 99.360 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing

room. A close above 99.410 is needed to shift focus back to the 200-DMA

(99.507).

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.300 Support Key

*RES 4: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 3: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs 

*RES 1: 100.315 - High Sept 25 & 26

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Aug & Sept

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 100.288 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains supported ahead of the 55-DMA (100.302) with a

close below 100.300 needed to confirm a break and initially pressure 100.275-288

where the 100-DMA is located. Modestly O/S studies correcting add support to the

bullish case for a return in pressure to 100.325-330 with bulls now needing a

close above 100.315 to confirm. Bollinger bands (100.303-323) remain flat as

broad sideways trading continues.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Bears Focused On July Low

*RES 4: 126-050 - High Sept 20 

*RES 3: 126-040 - High Sept 25, 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 125-230 - Low Sept 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125-180 - Hourly resistance Sept 27

*PRICE: 125-070 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 125-040 - Low July 26

*SUP 2: 125-020 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 124-280 - Low July 12

*SUP 4: 124-200 - Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: This week's topside failures around the 55-DMA have taken their

toll with fresh 2mth lows and confirmation of focus on the 124-140 July low.

Bears need a close below 125-040 to add weight to their case. O/S daily studies

and the Bollinger base remain key concerns for bears. Layers of resistance are

building with bulls needing a close above 125-230 to gain breathing room and a

close above 126-090 to hint at a correction back to 126-270.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Pressure Back On 200-DMA

*RES 4: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 3: 2.398 - Monthly High July 7 

*RES 2: 2.395 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 2.366 - High July 13

*PRICE: 2.325 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.316 - High Sept 27 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.301 - Hourly support Sept 27 & 28 

*SUP 3: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a 

*SUP 4: 2.266 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble 2.208 produced a rally that has seen a break of

the 200-DMA (2.327) in Asian trading and bulls focused on 2.366-2.437 where

monthly highs are located. The Bollinger top (2.349) is the key concern for

bulls with potential to limit follow through. Accumulating supports provide

bulls confidence with bears now needing a close below 2.316 to gain breathing

room and below 2.284 to hint at a move back to 2.208-2.214.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Dominate While 3529.19 Supports 

*RES 4: 3595.93 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 3589.86 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 3581.43 High June 26 

*RES 1: 3563.01 High Sept 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3555.17

*SUP 1: 3546.83 High Sept 26 now support 

*SUP 2: 3529.19 Low Sept 26 

*SUP 3: 3520.72 Low Sept 20 

*SUP 4: 3506.61 Low Sept 13

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 3555.37 has come to an end with a break higher

that sees bulls focused on layers of resistance 3581.43-3615.06 where monthly

highs and the bull channel top are situated. Daily momentum divergence remains a

concern for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below 3529.19 to ease

bullish pressure and shift focus back to 3476.36-3509.81 where key DMAs and the

daily bull channel base are located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]