MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

3 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) 161.44-162.15 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 161.71 21-DMA

*RES 3: 161.62 Low Sept 26 now resistance

*RES 2: 161.44 Hourly support Sept 25a now resistance

*RES 1: 161.37 High Oct 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.12

*SUP 1: 161.04 Hourly support Oct 2

*SUP 2: 160.66 Low Oct 2

*SUP 3: 160.27 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 160.24 Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the bounce from Monday's low but the contract

remains capped ahead of the key 161.44-162.15 resistance region. Bulls need a

close above 161.44 to shift initial focus to 161.71-162.15 and above 162.15 to

target 163.43 Sept highs. While 162.15 caps bears retain the upper hand and look

for a close below 160.24 to reconfirm the bearish bias and below 159.58 to

confirm focus on tests of 157.55 July lows.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) 131.32-64 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 131.49 High Sept 15 

*RES 3: 131.44 High Sept 27 

*RES 2: 131.39 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 131.32 Hourly resistance Sept 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.25

*SUP 1: 131.21 Hourly support Oct 2

*SUP 2: 131.06 Low Oct 2

*SUP 3: 130.92 Low Sept 28

*SUP 4: 130.90 Low Aug 16

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the lack of follow through and failures ahead

of 131.32. Bulls look for a close above 131.32 to gain breathing room and above

131.64 to end bearish hopes and shift focus back to 131.83-98. The Bollinger

base (130.89) remains the key concern for bears and supported last week. Bears

need a close below 131.06 now to reconfirm pressure on 130.90 and below 130.90

to target 130.53-68.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.180 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 112.230 Low Sept 8 & 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: 112.214 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.180 High Sept 25 

*RES 1: 112.169 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.165

*SUP 1: 112.135 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 112.110 Low Oct 3 

*SUP 3: 112.090 Low Sept 28 

*SUP 4: 112.072 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of 112.180 with hesitation around

the 21-DMA. The lack of follow through and bounce from 112.090 was less than

ideal for bears who are focused on 112.065-090. Bears now need a close below

112.065 to hint at a move back to 111.760 with below 112.015 to confirm. Bulls

need a close above 112.180 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and initially

pressure 112.214-230 where the 100-DMA (112.222) is located.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 124.36-65 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 125.21 High Sept 15 

*RES 3: 124.91 Low Sept 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: 124.65 High Sept 19 

*RES 1: 124.36 High Sept 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.20

*SUP 1: 124.05 Hourly support Oct 2 

*SUP 2: 123.84 Hourly support Oct 2a 

*SUP 3: 123.48 Low Oct 2 

*SUP 4: 123.29 Hourly support Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S studies remain the key concern for bears and have

added to the correction risk following Thursday's bounce. In saying that, layers

of resistance remain with bulls still needing a close above 124.36 to gain

breathing room and above 124.65 to shift immediate focus to 125.21. Bears now

need a close below 123.84 to ease pressure on resistance layers and below 123.48

to reconfirm immediate focus on 123.12.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.310 Support Holding Firm

*RES 4: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 3: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19

*RES 1: 99.330 High Sept 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.340

*SUP 1: 99.310 Low Sept 20 & 28

*SUP 2: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 3: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 4: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*COMMENTARY: Despite remaining heavy bears have far failed to manage the close

below 99.310 needed to pressure 99.230. Correcting O/S daily studies remain the

key concern for bears as the Bollinger base is currently not an issue. Key

resistance is still noted at 99.360 with bulls needing a close above to gain

breathing room. A close above 99.410 is needed to shift initial focus back to

the 21-DMA (99.427) and overall focus to the 200-DMA (99.506).

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.300 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 3: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs 

*RES 1: 100.315 - High Sept 25 & 26

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 100.290 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 55-DMA took its toll with a dip below Thursday only

to bounce from 100.300. Bears look for a close below 100.300 to initially

pressure 100.275-290 where the 100-DMA is located. Modestly O/S studies

correcting add support to the bullish case for a return in pressure to

100.325-330 with bulls needing a close above 100.315 to confirm. Bollinger bands

(100.302-322) remain flat as broad sideways trading continues.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 125-140/230 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 126-040 - High Sept 25, 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 125-230 - Low Sept 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: 125-140 - Hourly resistance Sept 29 

*RES 1: 125-120 - Daily Bear channel top

*PRICE: 125-050 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: 125-040 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 124-280 - Low July 12

*SUP 3: 124-230 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 124-140 - Monthly Lows July 6 & 7

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from fresh 3mth lows stalled ahead of the 125-230

resistance Friday resulting in fresh 3mth lows to start the new week although

follow through has been lacking with a bounce ahead of 124-280. Bears need a

close below this level to add weight to the case for a test of July lows. Layers

of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above 125-140 to gain breathing

room and a close above 125-230 to hint at a correction back to 126-040/090.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.429 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 2: 2.398 - Monthly High July 7 

*RES 1: 2.371 - High Oct 2

*PRICE: 2.350 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: 2.314 - Hourly support Sept 29 

*SUP 2: 2.296 - Low Sept 29 

*SUP 3: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a 

*SUP 4: 2.266 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bulls are attempting to distance themselves from the 200-DMA

(2.324) although the lack of follow through above 2.366 is a concern. Bulls now

look for a close above 2.371 to confirm initial focus on 2.398-2.437 with above

2.437 to return focus to 2017 highs. The Bolli top (2.394) remains the key

concern for bulls. Layers of support are building but the 2.284 support is key

with bears needing a close below to shift focus back to 2.208-2.214.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Above 3615.06 To Focus On 2017 Highs 

*RES 4: 3650.81 High May 11 

*RES 3: 3615.31 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 3615.06 Monthly High June 2 

*RES 1: 3614.08 Daily Bull channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3602.69

*SUP 1: 3588.40 Low Oct 2 

*SUP 2: 3582.07 Hourly resistance Sept 29 now support 

*SUP 3: 3575.85 Hourly resistance Sept 29a now support 

*SUP 4: 3569.49 Hourly support Sept 29

*COMMENTARY: Gains defined last week with the index recovering to trade at fresh

4mth highs again Monday & pressure 3614.08-3615.06 where bull channel and

Bollinger tops, and June highs are located. The Bolli top is the key concern for

bulls with potential to limit follow through. Layers of support add to bullish

confidence with bears now looking for a close below 3582.07 to ease bullish

pressure and below 3556.5 to shift focus lower.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]