MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

4 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) 161.44-162.15 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 161.66 21-DMA

*RES 3: 161.62 Low Sept 26 now resistance

*RES 2: 161.44 Hourly support Sept 25a now resistance

*RES 1: 161.37 High Oct 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.10

*SUP 1: 160.91 Hourly resistance Oct 3 now support

*SUP 2: 160.65 Low Oct 3

*SUP 3: 160.24 Low Sept 28

*SUP 4: 160.22 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Downside follow through has been lacking on dips the past few days

with pressure returning to the key 161.44-162.15 resistance region. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 161.44 to confirm an easing of bearish

pressure and above 162.15 to target 163.43 Sept highs. Bears now look for a

close below Tuesday's 160.65 low to ease pressure on resistance layers and below

160.24 to reconfirm a bearish bias initially targeting 159.58-79.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) 131.32-64 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 131.49 High Sept 15 

*RES 3: 131.44 High Sept 27 

*RES 2: 131.38 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 131.32 Hourly resistance Sept 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.25

*SUP 1: 131.21 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 131.06 Low Oct 2

*SUP 3: 130.92 Low Sept 28

*SUP 4: 130.90 Low Aug 16

*COMMENTARY: Downside follow through remains elusive with pressure again

returning to the 131.32 resistance. Bulls look for a close above 131.32 to gain

breathing room and above 131.64 to end bearish hopes and shift focus back to

131.83-98. The 131.06 support remains key with bears needing a close below to

confirm a break of the 100-DMA (131.07) and below 130.90 to target 130.53-68.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Need Close Above 112.180

*RES 4: 112.230 Low Sept 8 & 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: 112.207 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.180 High Sept 25 

*RES 1: 112.175 High Oct 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.170

*SUP 1: 112.160 Hourly support Oct 3 

*SUP 2: 112.135 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 112.110 Low Oct 3 

*SUP 4: 112.090 Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returns to 112.180 resistance with bulls taking comfort in

support emerging on dips back towards 112.090. Bulls still need a close above

112.180 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (112.167) and above 112.230 to confirm

initial focus back to 112.285 Sept highs. Layers of support are building with

bears now needing a close below 112.135 to ease pressure on resistance layers

and below 112.065 to reconfirm a bearish bias and target 111.985-112.015.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 124.36-65 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 124.91 Low Sept 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: 124.65 High Sept 19 

*RES 2: 124.36 High Sept 20 

*RES 1: 124.05 Hourly support Oct 2 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.91

*SUP 1: 123.67 Low Oct 3 

*SUP 2: 123.48 Low Oct 2 

*SUP 3: 123.29 Hourly support Sept 28 

*SUP 4: 123.12 Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: The 124.36 resistance confirmed significance Monday with the

contract rallying only to be capped at 124.36. Bulls still need a close above

124.36 to gain breathing room and above 124.65 to shift immediate focus to

125.12-21 where the 21-DMA is noted. Bears now need a close below 123.48 to

reconfirm immediate focus on 123.12 and overall focus on 122.60.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.360 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 3: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19

*RES 1: 99.340 Repeated daily highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.330

*SUP 1: 99.310 Low Sept 20 & 28

*SUP 2: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 3: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 4: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*COMMENTARY: Despite remaining heavy bears have failed to manage the close below

99.310 needed to pressure 99.230. Correcting O/S daily studies remain the key

concern for bears. Key resistance is still noted at 99.360 with bulls needing a

close above to gain breathing room. A close above the 21-DMA (99.414) is needed

to shift focus to 99.504-521 where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are clustered.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 100.300

*RES 4: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs 

*RES 2: 100.315 - High Sept 25 & 26 

*RES 1: 100.309 - 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305

*SUP 1: 100.305 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 100.290 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 55-DMA took its toll with a dip below Thursday only

to bounce from 100.300. Bears look for a close below 100.300 to initially

pressure 100.285-290 where the 100-DMA is located. The contract is now capped

ahead of the 21-DMA with bulls needing a close above 100.315 to return focus to

100.325-300. Overall bears need a close below 100.285 to confirm a break of the

100-DMA and below 100.275 to target the 200-DMA (100.259).

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Need Close Above 125-230

*RES 4: 126-090 - High Sept 18 

*RES 3: 126-050 - High Sept 20 

*RES 2: 126-040 - High Sept 25, 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 125-230 - Low Sept 25 now resistance

*PRICE: 125-130 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: 125-080 - Hourly support Oct 3

*SUP 2: 125-010 - Low Oct 3

*SUP 3: 124-280 - Low July 12

*SUP 4: 124-240 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The lack of downside follow through remains a concern for bears

given daily studies correcting from O/S & recent momentum divergence, seeing the

contract correcting back towards 125-230. Bulls now need a close above 125-230

to hint at a move back to 126-040/090. Initial support is now noted at 125-080

with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and end correction talk.

Below 124-280 would add weight to the bearish case for a test of July lows.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 3: 2.398 - Monthly High July 7 

*RES 2: 2.371 - High Oct 2 

*RES 1: 2.341 - Hourly support Oct 3 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.321 @ 0330GMT

*SUP 1: 2.312 - Hourly support Oct 4 

*SUP 2: 2.296 - Low Sept 29 

*SUP 3: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a 

*SUP 4: 2.266 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation is a concern for bulls given correcting

O/B studies now weighing. Pressure on the 200-DMA (2.323) has taken its toll

with a break below but the 2.284 support remains key. Bears need a close below

2.284 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure & shift focus back to 2.208-2.245

where key DMAs are located. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.371 to

confirm initial focus on 2.398-2.437 & above 2.437 to return focus to 2017

highs.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 3615.06 

*RES 4: 3650.81 High May 11 

*RES 3: 3623.35 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 3620.13 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 3615.06 Monthly High June 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3605.73

*SUP 1: 3598.71 Low Oct 3 

*SUP 2: 3588.40 Low Oct 2 

*SUP 3: 3582.07 Hourly resistance Sept 29 now support 

*SUP 4: 3575.85 Hourly resistance Sept 29a now support

*COMMENTARY: Gains defined last week with the index recovering to again trade at

fresh 4mth highs Tuesday & pressure 3615.06-3623.35 where bull channel and

Bollinger tops, and June highs are located. The Bolli top is the key concern for

bulls with potential to limit follow through. Layers of support add to bullish

confidence with bears needing a close below 3582.07 to ease bullish pressure and

below 3556.5 to shift focus lower.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]