MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

16 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Above 162.15 To Target Sept Highs

*RES 4: 163.43 Monthly high Sept 8

*RES 3: 162.94 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: 162.89 Low Sept 11 now resistance

*RES 1: 162.15 High Oct 13, Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.10

*SUP 1: 161.85 Hourly resistance Oct 13 now support

*SUP 2: 161.57 Hourly resistance Oct 13a now support

*SUP 3: 161.11 Low Oct 11

*SUP 4: 161.03 Hourly support Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: The 161.03-11 support region provided the base last week for a

break higher Friday and bullish close following a sharp narrowing of Bollinger

bands. Bulls continue to look for a close above 162.15 to shift focus to tests

of 2017 highs. Layers of support are accumulating with bears needing a close

below 161.57 to ease bullish pressure and below 161.03 to shift focus back to

160.24-59. Below 159.58 is needed to shift focus to 2017 lows.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Above 131.64 Targets 131.83-98

*RES 4: 131.83 High Sept 11 

*RES 3: 131.64 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: 131.60 High Sept 14 

*RES 1: 131.57 High Oct 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.55

*SUP 1: 131.44 Hourly support Oct 13

*SUP 2: 131.37 Hourly resistance Oct 13 now support

*SUP 3: 131.25 Hourly support Oct 12

*SUP 4: 131.13 Low Oct 11

*COMMENTARY: Narrowed Bollinger bands suggested a breakout last week and bulls

have not been disappointed with immediate pressure on key resistance layers.

Bulls continue to look for a close above 131.64 to end bearish hopes and target

131.83-98 where Sept highs are noted. Support layers are building with bears now

needing a close below 131.37 to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus

back to 131.13.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.230 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 112.285 Monthly high Sept 8 

*RES 3: 112.242 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 112.230 Low Sept 8 & 11 now resistance 

*RES 1: 112.215 High Oct 4

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.205

*SUP 1: 112.200 Hourly resistance Oct 13 now support 

*SUP 2: 112.170 Breakout level Oct 13 

*SUP 3: 112.145 Hourly support Oct 12 

*SUP 4: 112.125 Low Oct 9

*COMMENTARY: Dips found support ahead of the 55-DMA (112.117) last week with

bulls taking comfort in pressure having returned to the key 112.230 resistance.

Bulls continue to look for a close above 112.230 to end bearish hopes and

confirm initial focus on 112.285. Support layers are building with bears now

needing a close below 112.170 to ease bullish pressure and return pressure to

the 112.065-125 support region where the 55-DMA and Sept lows are noted.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) Narrowed Bolli Bands Suggest Breakout

*RES 4: 124.65 High Sept 19 

*RES 3: 124.36 High Sept 20 

*RES 2: 124.22 High Oct 4 

*RES 1: 124.10 High Oct 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.90

*SUP 1: 123.46 Low Oct 13 

*SUP 2: 123.29 Hourly support Sept 28 

*SUP 3: 123.12 Low Sept 28 

*SUP 4: 122.60 2017 Low Jan 26

*COMMENTARY: The 124.36 resistance confirmed has confirmed significance with the

contract rallying only to be capped at this level in past weeks. Bulls still

need a close above 124.36 to gain breathing room with above 124.65 to shift

immediate focus to 125.21. Bears still need a close below 123.32 to retain focus

on 123.12 and overall focus on 122.60 2017 lows. Very narrow Bolli bands suggest

a break out near term.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.360 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 2: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.320

*SUP 1: 99.320 Low Oct 12

*SUP 2: 99.310 Low Sept 20 & 28

*SUP 3: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 4: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 99.310-360 continues with bears needing a close

below 99.310 to reconfirm a bearish bias and target 99.110-230. Key resistance

is still noted at 99.360 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing

room. A close above 99.410 is again needed to shift focus to 99.477-520 where

55, 100 & 200-DMAs are clustered. Momentum studies have corrected their

previously O/S condition and are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.300 & 100.315 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 3: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs 

*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated daily highs Sept & Oct

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 100.295 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows

*COMMENTARY: Although the contract closed marginally below the 55-DMA (100.308)

recently, bears need a close below 100.300 to confirm a break and initially

pressure 100.285-295. The contract managed closes above the 21-DMA (100.309)

with bulls still needing a close above 100.315 to return focus to 100.325-300.

Overall bears need a close below 100.285 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and

below 100.275 to target the 200-DMA (100.262).

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Focused On 125-290/126-09

*RES 4: 126-040 - Highs Sept 25 & 26 

*RES 3: 126-030 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 125-290 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 125-250 - High Oct 13

*PRICE: 125-190 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 125-180 - Hourly support Oct 13

*SUP 2: 125-150 - Hourly resistance Oct 13 now support

*SUP 3: 125-100 - Low Oct 13

*SUP 4: 125-050 - Hourly support Oct 11

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 21-DMA (125-160) Friday sees bulls now focused

on the 125-290/090 region where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated after correcting O/S

studies provided support last week. Layers of support are accumulating and also

adding to bullish confidence. Bears now look for a close below 125-150 to ease

renewed bullish pressure and below 125-100 to shift focus back to 124-220.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus on 2.208-2.245

*RES 4: 2.355 - Hourly resistance Oct 11 

*RES 3: 2.334 - High Oct 13 

*RES 2: 2.315 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: 2.302 - Hourly resistance Oct 13

*PRICE: 2.294 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.236 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.231 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.208 - Low Sept 18

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with a break and close below

the 200 & 21 (2.294) DMAs and the key 2.284 support that now sees immediate

pressure having shifted to 2.208-2.245 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Correcting

O/B studies add weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above the

200-DMA to ease immediate bearish pressure and above 2.402 to return initial

focus to 2.437.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Fresh 5mth Highs Lacking Follow Through 

*RES 4: 3668.54 Daily Bull channel 

*RES 3: 3666.80 2017 High May 8 

*RES 2: 3638.86 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 3618.35 High Oct 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3604.55

*SUP 1: 3589.98 Low Oct 10 

*SUP 2: 3582.07 Hourly resistance Sept 29 now support 

*SUP 3: 3575.85 Hourly resistance Sept 29a now support 

*SUP 4: 3569.49 Hourly support Sept 29

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through was again lacking Friday following fresh

5mth highs by the smallest of margins. Bulls continue to look for a close above

3618.35 to add support to the case for a test of 3666.80-3668.54 where the daily

bull channel top and 2017 highs are situated. Initial support remains at 3589.98

with bears needing a close below 3582.07 to confirm a correction and below

3556.50 to confirm focus on 3497.29-3529.19.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]