MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

7 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Flirting With 100-WMA

*RES 4: 164.00 Low Aug 18 now resistance (Cont)

*RES 3: 163.43 Monthly high Sept 8

*RES 2: 163.31 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 163.24 High Nov 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.14

*SUP 1: 163.00 Hourly resistance Nov 6 now support

*SUP 2: 162.61 Low Nov 3

*SUP 3: 162.23 Hourly resistance Oct 27 now support

*SUP 4: 161.85 Hourly support Oct 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls reconfirmed dominance Monday with the pair now flirting with

the 100-WMA (163.18) as immediate focus shifts to Sept highs. Bulls then look

for a close above 164.00 to confirm focus on the daily bull channel top

(165.18). The Bollinger top remains a concern for bulls and currently caps.

Bears now need a close below 163.00 to gain breathing room and below 162.61 to

confirm focus on 160.59-161.17 where the bull channel base is found.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Bears Need Close Below 131.75

*RES 4: 132.240 Low Aug 7 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 3: 132.228 200-WMA 

*RES 2: 131.980 Monthly High Sept 8 

*RES 1: 131.976 100-WMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.910

*SUP 1: 131.870 High Nov 3 now support

*SUP 2: 131.750 Low Nov 3

*SUP 3: 131.710 Hourly support Nov 2

*SUP 4: 131.640 Low Nov 2

*COMMENTARY: Gains continued for the contract Monday with immediate focus on the

131.976-132.240 region where the 100 & 200-WMAS are situated. The Bollinger band

top (132.005) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow

through. Initial support is noted at 131.870 but bears continue to look for a

close below 131.750 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus to 131.455-570

where the 21 & 55-DMAs are found.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.230 & 112.315 Levels Key

*RES 4: 112.438 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.365 Monthly high Sept 5 (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.319 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 112.315 High Oct 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.295

*SUP 1: 112.240 Low Oct 27 

*SUP 2: 112.230 High Oct 19 now support 

*SUP 3: 112.200 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 112.181 Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the previous week's high is a concern but the

bounce from ahead of 112.230 support saw bulls gain breathing room. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 112.315 to end correction talk and confirm

focus on 112.365-455. Bears need a close below 112.230 to shift initial focus to

112.171-200 where the bull channel base is found. Overall below the channel base

is needed to shift focus to 112.057-105 where the 100-DMA is noted.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 124.30-66 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 126.67 High Sept 14 

*RES 3: 126.25 55-WMA 

*RES 2: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125.50 High Nov 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 125.19

*SUP 1: 124.97 Hourly support Nov 6 

*SUP 2: 124.66 Hourly support Nov 2 

*SUP 3: 124.30 Hourly resistance Nov 1 now support 

*SUP 4: 123.84 Low Nov 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the break of the daily bear channel top and

21-DMA (124.31) that resulted in a rally Thursday and tests of 100 DMA & WMAs.

Bulls continue to look for a close above 125.50 to open up for a move back to

126.67-80. The 124.30-66 support region is key this week. Bears need a close

below 124.30 end bullish hopes and return pressure to 123.71.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 55-DMA Resistance Key

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.415 55-DMA

*RES 2: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 1: 99.400 High Nov 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.390

*SUP 1: 99.370 Hourly resistance Oct 23 now support

*SUP 2: 99.350 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 99.310 Low Nov 1

*SUP 4: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand with focus having returned to

99.410-415. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to add support

to their case for a test of 100 (99.459) & 200 (99.493) DMAs. Layers of support

have been left behind with bears needing a close below 99.350 to shift focus

back to 99.300-310 where 2017 lows are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 100.330

*RES 4: 100.373 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 1: 100.325 - 2017 Repeated Daily Highs Sept, Oct & Nov

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.325

*SUP 1: 100.320 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 2: 100.310 - Low Oct 26

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 4: 100.300 - Alternating daily sup/res, 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 21 (100.317) & 55 (100.313) DMAs in previous

weeks lacked follow through with the contract recovering to repeatedly retest

2017 highs. Bulls need a close above 100.330 to target 100.360/373. Bears look

for a close below 100.310 to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and ease bullish

pressure. Below the 100-DMA (100.300) is needed to end bullish hopes and shift

focus back to 100.275-285.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 21-DMA Now Supporting

*RES 4: 126-04+ High Sept 25 

*RES 3: 125-24+ 100-DMA, 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 125-23+ Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 125-16+ Hourly support Oct 16 now resistance

*PRICE: 125-09 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 125-08+ Hourly support Nov 6

*SUP 2: 125-02+ 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 124-28+ Hourly support Nov 1

*SUP 4: 124-23  Low Oct 30 now resistance

*COMMENTARY: Closes above the 21-DMA add support to the case for a correction

back to 125-16+/24+ where 100 & 55-DMAs are situated. A close above the 55-DMA

is needed to hint at a move back to 126-25 with above 126-09 to confirm. Bears

look for a close below 124-28+ to ease bullish pressure and below 124-23 to

reconfirm immediate focus on the 124-00+/06 support region where the rising

weekly TL off 2017 Lows is noted.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Immediate Focus On 200-DMA

*RES 4: 2.401 - High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 2.385 - Hourly support Nov 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.365 - Hourly resistance Nov 2 

*RES 1: 2.333 - Hourly resistance Nov 6

*PRICE: 2.327 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.313 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 3: 2.266 - 55-DMA, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 2.262 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The yield remains heavy with focus having shifted to the 200-DMA.

Bears look for a close below the 200-DMA to confirm initial focus on 2.245-2.278

where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. Layers of resistance accumulating are weighing

with bulls needing a close above 2.365 to gain breathing room and above 2.419 to

return initial focus to 2.477 and overall focus to 2.544-580. Daily studies are

well placed for further losses.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Still Need Close Below 3669.94 

*RES 4: 3782.29 High Apr 27 2015 

*RES 3: 3737.56 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 3714.26 Monthly High July 20 2015 

*RES 1: 3694.03 High Nov 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3682.36

*SUP 1: 3669.94 Hourly support Oct 31 

*SUP 2: 3655.10 Hourly support Oct 30 

*SUP 3: 3639.81 High Oct 26 now support 

*SUP 4: 3625.87 High Oct 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 2+ year highs Wednesday added support to the bullish

case targeting a test of 3714.26-3737.56 where the daily bull channel top is

situated. O/B studies are less than ideal but the Bollinger top (3701.63)

remains the key concern for bulls and limits follow through. Layers of support

remain with bears still needing a close below 3669.94 to ease bullish pressure

and shift focus back to 3625.87-3639.81.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]