MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

4 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) 162.97 Now Key Support Today

*RES 4: 164.75 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: 164.52 Low Sept 1 now resistance (Cont)

*RES 2: 164.00 Low Aug 18 now resistance (Cont)

*RES 1: 163.92 High Dec 1

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.54

*SUP 1: 163.46 Hourly resistance Dec 1 now support

*SUP 2: 162.97 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 3: 162.52 Hourly support Nov 30

*SUP 4: 162.38 Daily Bull channel base off Oct 25 low

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Thursday's dip resulted in a bounce

and relatively bullish close to the week that sees bulls reconfirm dominance and

focus now on 164.00-75 where the shorter term bull channel top is situated. The

Bollinger band top (163.66) is the key concern for bulls and currently limits

follow through. Bears now need a close below 162.97 to ease bullish pressure and

shift focus back to layers of support 161.59-162.38.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Still Need Close Above 131.880

*RES 4: 132.010 Hourly support Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 131.096 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 131.920 Hourly support Nov 7 now resistance 

*RES 1: 131.880 Hourly resistance Nov 9, High Nov 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.770

*SUP 1: 131.743 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 131.680 Hourly resistance Dec 1 now support

*SUP 3: 131.580 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 4: 131.350 Low Nov 30

*COMMENTARY: The lack of downside follow through with the pair finding support

ahead of the key 131.290350 region where the daily bull channel base and 100-DMA

are located resulted in an aggressive rally Friday that sees pressure back on

131.880. Above 131.880 is needed to reconfirm a bullish bias initially targeting

132.060. The 131.580 support is now key with bears needing a close below to

return focus to 131.290-350.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) Focus Back On 112.285-315

*RES 4: 112.365 Monthly high Sept 5 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.318 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 112.315 High Oct 27 

*RES 1: 112.285 High Nov 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.260

*SUP 1: 112.240 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 112.207 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 112.180 Hourly resistance Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 4: 112.160 Monthly Low Nov 30

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from ahead of the key 112.135-150 support region

resulted in an aggressive rally and bullish close Friday that sees immediate

focus back on 112.285-315. Bulls need a close above 112.315 to reconfirm a

bullish bias and initially target 112.365. The 112.207-240 support region is now

key. Bears need a close below 112.240 to ease bullish pressure and below the

55-DMA to shift focus back to 112.135-150 where the 100-DMA is noted.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Broad Range Trading Persists

*RES 4: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 125.21 High Sept 15 

*RES 2: 124.94 High Nov 8 

*RES 1: 124.86 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.63

*SUP 1: 124.24 Hourly resistance Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 2: 123.64 High Nov 30 now support 

*SUP 3: 123.55 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 123.31 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Having bounced from last week's fresh monthly lows sees the

contract continue to trade sideways confined to a 123.12-124.94 range. Pressure

back on 124.94 sees bulls needing a close above to shift initial focus to

124.21-99 although the Bollinger top (124.86) may slow the move. Bears now look

for a close below 124.24 to ease pressure on 124.94 and below 123.64 to return

focus to 123.12.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.350 & 99.410 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.444 100-DMA

*RES 2: 99.424 High Sept 15

*RES 1: 99.410 High Sept 15 & Nov 22-27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.390

*SUP 1: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*SUP 2: 99.359 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.350 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 99.310 Low Nov 1

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation at the 99.410 level resulted in a correction back to the

99.350-370 region where the 55-DMA is located. Bears look for a close below

99.370 to ease bullish pressure and below 99.350 confirm a break of the 55-DMA

and shift focus back to 99.300-310 where 2017 lows are noted. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 99.410 to add support to their case for a test of 100

(99.444) & 200 (99.489) DMAs.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Bulls Still Need Close Above 100.315

*RES 4: 100.320 - Monthly High Oct 

*RES 3: 100.319 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 100.315 - Repeated daily highs Nov 

*RES 1: 100.313 - 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.304 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: 100.292 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*COMMENTARY: The lack of downside follow through Thursday saw the contract

recover to retest the 100.315 resistance Friday. Bulls look for a close above

100.315 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and above 100.320 to shift focus to

100.334 where the old channel top is situated. While 100.315 caps bears focus on

a close below 100.285 to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus to

100.270-275.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 2.273 & 2.477 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 125-00 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: 124-26+ 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 124-19 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: 124-09 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: 124-02 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 123-29+ Monthly Low Nov 30

*SUP 2: 123-27 Lows Oct 25 & 27

*SUP 3: 123-25 Low Mar 30

*SUP 4: 123-10+ Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: A volatile end to the week saw the contract almost trade the week's

range on the day only to remain capped around the 55-DMA and ahead of the bear

channel top (124-28+). This week bulls look for a close above 125-00 to confirm

an easing of bearish pressure and above 125-14 to shift to a bullish bias

targeting an overall move back to 127-28+. A close below 123-27 is needed to

confirm focus on the bear channel base.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.273 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.558 - Low Mar 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 2: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 1: 2.437 - High Nov 30

*PRICE: 2.401 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.373 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.310 - Low Nov 28 

*SUP 3: 2.304 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.282 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 2.477 Oct highs remain key with the yield rejected aggressively

ahead of this level Friday. Bulls look for a close above this level to target

2.544-2.628 where 2017 highs are situated. Volatility saw support levels taken

out before bouncing ahead of the 200-DMA. The 2.273 support remains key. Bears

need a close below to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to

2.171-185 where the 200-WMA is noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 3497.29 To Confirm Channel Break 

*RES 4: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3620.01 High Nov 10 

*RES 2: 3595.20 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 3575.29 Hourly resistance Dec 1

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3527.55

*SUP 1: 3521.57 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3519.35 Low Nov 15 

*SUP 3: 3515.57 Weekly Bull channel base (Off July 2016 low) 

*SUP 4: 3497.29 High Aug 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow was lacking last week on pops above 21 (3589.18) &

55-DMAs leaving the index looking offered and seeing immediate pressure on the

200-DMA. Bears now look for a close below 3497.29 to confirm a break of the

weekly bull channel base with below 3467.78 to target 3363.68-3397.27. Bulls now

need a close above 3575.29 to ease bearish pressure and above 3642.10 with

overall focus returning to tests of 2017 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]