MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

21 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Below 160.80 Targets 159.78-160.16

*RES 4: 163.00 21-DMA

*RES 3: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance

*RES 2: 162.66 Hourly resistance Dec 19

*RES 1: 162.15 Low Dec 19 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.84

*SUP 1: 161.49 Monthly Low Nov 14

*SUP 2: 161.34 Daily Bull channel base (off Sept 28 low)

*SUP 3: 160.80 High Oct 25 now support

*SUP 4: 160.16 Monthly Low Oct 2

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of last week's high resulted in a sharp sell-off

and bearish closes that sees focus now on 161.34-49 where the bull channel base

& Nov monthly low are noted. The Bollinger base (161.95) is the key concern for

bears with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance accumulating

are weighing. Bulls now need a close above 162.15 to ease immediate bearish

pressure and above 162.79 to shift focus back to 163.78 Dec highs so far.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Below 131.610 Targets 130.920-131.350

*RES 4: 132.240 Low Dec 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 132.100 Hourly resistance Dec 19 

*RES 2: 131.958 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 131.880 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.730

*SUP 1: 131.610 Monthly Low Oct 6

*SUP 2: 131.511 Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 3: 131.350 Monthly Low Nov 30 (cont)

*SUP 4: 130.920 Monthly Low Sept 28 (cont)

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off leaves the contract looking heavy with losses

resulting in bearish closes and focus firmly on tests of 131.610. Daily studies

are well placed for losses before O/S is an issue. Layers of resistance left in

the wake add to bearish confidence. Bears look for a close below 131.610 to

shift focus to 130.920-131.350. Bulls now need a close above the 100-DMA to ease

bearish pressure and hint at a correction back to 132.240-353.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bears Focused On 2017 Low

*RES 4: 112.124 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 112.110 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.075 Hourly resistance Dec 19 

*RES 1: 112.035 High Dec 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.990

*SUP 1: 111.990 Low Dec 20 

*SUP 2: 111.905 Low July 17 (cont) 

*SUP 3: 111.840 Low July 6 (cont) 

*SUP 4: 111.805 2017 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA has now resulted in a break and close

below 112.025 with bearish focus now shifting to 111.805-840 where 2017 lows are

situated. The Bollinger band base (112.003) is the key concern for bears with

potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance accumulating adds to

bearish confidence. Bulls now need a close above 112.035 to ease bearish

pressure and above 112.075 to shift focus back to key DMAs 112.110-124.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Pressuring Key Support

*RES 4: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 125.69 High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 125.30 Low Dec 15 now resistance 

*RES 1: 124.72 Hourly resistance Dec 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.36

*SUP 1: 124.22 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 123.94 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 123.62 Low Dec 8 

*SUP 4: 123.46 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3mth highs printed Friday although the pop above the bull

channel top lacked follow through resulting in a sell-off this week that sees

bullish pressure eased and bears looking for a close below 124.22 to return

focus to 123.62-94 where the 55-DMA and weekly lows are found. Initial

resistance is now noted at 124.72 with bulls needing a close above to ease

bearish pressure and above 125.30 to return focus to 125.69 Dec highs so far.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 99.410

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.482 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.477 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.430

*SUP 1: 99.411 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out 99.450 is a concern for bulls with the

Bollinger band top (99.451) limiting follow through and daily studies correcting

from modestly O/B levels. Bears now need a close below 99.410 to ease bullish

pressure and below 99.370 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (99.379) and hint at

a move back to 99.300-310 with below 99.350 to confirm. Bulls need a close above

99.450 to shift focus to 99.477-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305-310 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 2: 100.332 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12, 55-DMA

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 2: 100.300 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above 100.325 is less than ideal for

bulls given daily studies correcting from modestly O/B levels. The 100.305-310

support region is key this week. Bears need a close below 100.305 to ease

bullish pressure and shift focus to 100.295-300 where the bull channel base and

100-DMA are located. Bulls still need a close above 100.325 to initially

pressure the bull channel top and then target 100.340-380.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bears Focused On 122-20+/123-07+

*RES 4: 124-13+ High Dec 18

*RES 3: 124-05  Hourly support Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 123-29+ Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 1: 123-27  Lows Oct 25 & 27 now resistance

*PRICE: 123-18 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 123-07+ High Mar 13 now support

*SUP 2: 123-03+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 3: 122-20+ Monthly Low Mar 14

*SUP 4: 122-14+ 2016 Low Dec 15 2016

*COMMENTARY: Repeated topside failures ahead of the key 124-17+/23+ resistance

region where the bear channel top and 55-DMA are located resulted in a break of

key supports and bears now focused on 122-20+/123-07+ where monthly lows and the

bear channel base are noted. Daily studies are well placed for losses but the

Bollinger base (123-17+) is a concern. Layers of resistance are weighing with

bulls needing a close above 124-05 to return focus to 124-17+/23+.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Rally Targeting 2017 High

*RES 4: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 2.628 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 1: 2.536 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high)

*PRICE: 2.481 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.472 - Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 2: 2.443 - Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 3: 2.423 - Hourly support Dec 19a 

*SUP 4: 2.401 - Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the channel base failed to produce a break lower with

the correction higher seeing a close above 2.477 shift bullish focus to

2.628-641 where 2017 & 2016 highs are situated. Daily studies remain well placed

for gains. Layers of support are building and providing bulls confidence. Bears

now look for a close below 2.423 to ease immediate bullish pressure and confirm

a correction back to 2.344-374.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 3620.01-3642.10 

*RES 4: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3620.01 High Nov 10 

*RES 2: 3597.05 Hourly support Dec 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3562.66 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3552.65

*SUP 1: 3542.85 Low Dec 15 

*SUP 2: 3535.97 Weekly Bull channel base (Off July 2016 low) 

*SUP 3: 3534.82 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 3519.35 Low Dec 7

*COMMENTARY: The weekly bull channel base off July 2016 lows again confirmed

significance this week but the index remains capped ahead of 3620.01-3642.10.

Bulls need a close above 3620.01 to gain traction topside and above 3642.10 to

confirm focus on tests of 2017 highs. Time spent above the 55-DMA (3599.61) was

brief. Immediate pressure has returned to 3519.35-3535.97 where the 200-DMA and

bull channel base are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]