MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

22 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Immediate Focus On Channel Base

*RES 4: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance

*RES 3: 162.66 Hourly resistance Dec 19

*RES 2: 162.15 Low Dec 19 now resistance

*RES 1: 161.83 High Dec 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.66

*SUP 1: 161.49 Monthly Low Nov 14

*SUP 2: 161.37 Daily Bull channel base (off Sept 28 low)

*SUP 3: 160.80 High Oct 25 now support

*SUP 4: 160.16 Monthly Low Oct 2

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of last week's high resulted in a sharp sell-off

and bearish closes that see focus now on 161.37-49 where the bull channel base &

Nov monthly low are noted. The Bollinger base (161.78) is the key concern for

bears with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance accumulating

are weighing. Bulls now need a close above 161.83 to ease immediate bearish

pressure and above 162.15 to shift focus back to 162.79.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bears Now Focused On 130.920-131.350

*RES 4: 132.100 Hourly resistance Dec 19 

*RES 3: 131.967 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 131.880 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: 131.740 High Dec 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.610

*SUP 1: 131.580 Low Dec 21

*SUP 2: 131.481 Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 3: 131.350 Monthly Low Nov 30 (cont)

*SUP 4: 130.920 Monthly Low Sept 28 (cont)

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off leaves the contract looking heavy with losses

resulting in bearish closes and focus now on 130.920-161.350 where the daily

bear channel base is noted. The Bollinger base (131.783) remains the key concern

for bears and sees the move getting a little ahead of itself. Bulls now need a

close above 131.740 to ease bearish pressure and above the 100-DMA to hint at a

correction back to 132.240-321.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bears Focused On 2017 Low

*RES 4: 112.109 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 112.075 Hourly resistance Dec 19 

*RES 2: 112.035 High Dec 20 

*RES 1: 112.000 High Dec 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.960

*SUP 1: 111.950 Low Dec 21 

*SUP 2: 111.905 Low July 17 (cont) 

*SUP 3: 111.840 Low July 6 (cont) 

*SUP 4: 111.805 2017 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA has resulted in a break and close below

112.025 with bearish focus currently on 111.805-840 where 2017 lows are

situated. The Bollinger band base (111.981) is the key concern for bears with

potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance accumulating adds to

bearish confidence. Bulls now need a close above 112.000 to ease bearish

pressure and above 112.035 to shift focus back to key DMAs 112.108-123.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 124.72

*RES 4: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 125.69 High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 125.30 Low Dec 15 now resistance 

*RES 1: 124.72 Hourly resistance Dec 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.37

*SUP 1: 124.11 Low Dec 21 

*SUP 2: 123.97 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 123.62 Low Dec 8 

*SUP 4: 123.48 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3mth highs printed last Friday although the pop above the

bull channel top lacked follow through resulting in a sell-off this week that

sees bullish pressure eased and focus returned to 123.48-97 where the 55-DMA and

weekly lows are found. Initial resistance remains in place at 124.72 with bulls

needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above 125.30 to return

initial focus to 125.69 Dec highs so far.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 99.410

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.481 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.477 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.430

*SUP 1: 99.413 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out 99.450 is a concern for bulls with the

Bollinger band top (99.453) limiting follow through and daily studies correcting

from modestly O/B. Bears need a close below 99.410 to ease bullish pressure and

below 99.370 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (99.379) and hint at a move back

to 99.300-310 with below 99.350 to confirm. Bulls need a close above 99.450 to

shift focus to 99.477-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305-310 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 2: 100.332 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.320

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 3: 100.300 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above 100.325 is less than ideal for

bulls given daily studies correcting from modestly O/B levels. The 100.305-310

support region is key this week. Bears need a close below 100.305 to ease

bullish pressure and shift focus to 100.295-300 where the bull channel base and

100-DMA are located. Bulls still need a close above 100.325 to initially

pressure the bull channel top and then target 100.340-380.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bears Focused On 122-20+/123-07+

*RES 4: 124-05 Hourly support Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 123-29+ Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 123-27 Lows Oct 25 & 27 now resistance

*RES 1: 123-21 Hourly resistance Dec 20

*PRICE: 123-16 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 123-07+ High Mar 13 now support

*SUP 2: 123-02+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 3: 122-20+ Monthly Low Mar 14

*SUP 4: 122-14+ 2016 Low Dec 15 2016

*COMMENTARY: Repeated topside failures ahead of the key 124-17+/23+ resistance

region where the bear channel top and 55-DMA are located resulted in a break of

key supports and bears focused on 122-20+/123-07+ where monthly lows and the

bear channel base are noted. The Bollinger base (123-14+) is a concern for bears

with potential to limit follow through. Bulls now need a close above 123-29+ to

ease bearish pressure.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.423-472 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 2.628 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 1: 2.536 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high)

*PRICE: 2.481 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.472 - Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 2: 2.443 - Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 3: 2.423 - Hourly support Dec 19a 

*SUP 4: 2.401 - Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the channel base failed to produce a break lower with

the correction higher seeing a close above 2.477 shift bullish focus to

2.628-641 where 2017 & 2016 highs are situated. Daily studies remain well placed

for gains. Layers of support are building and providing bulls confidence. Bears

need a close below 2.472 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below 2.423 to

confirm a correction back to 2.344-376.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Supported Around Weekly Bull Channel Base 

*RES 4: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3620.01 High Nov 10 

*RES 1: 3597.05 Hourly support Dec 18 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3570.78

*SUP 1: 3535.97 Weekly Bull channel base (Off July 2016 low) 

*SUP 2: 3535.67 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3519.35 Low Dec 7 

*SUP 4: 3497.29 High Aug 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The weekly bull channel base off July 2016 lows again confirmed

significance this week but the index remains capped ahead of 3620.01-3642.10.

Bulls need a close above 3620.01 to gain traction topside and above 3642.10 to

confirm focus on tests of 2017 highs. The 3467.78-3519.35 support region is now

key. Bears need a close below 3519.35 to confirm a bearish bias and below

3467.78 targets 3363.668 Aug lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]