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MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis 

29 December 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below Bull Channel Base
*RES 4: 162.84 21-DMA
*RES 3: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance
*RES 2: 162.66 Hourly resistance Dec 19
*RES 1: 162.37 High Dec 27
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.68
*SUP 1: 161.49 Monthly Low Nov 14
*SUP 2: 161.39 Daily Bull channel base (off Sept 28 low)
*SUP 3: 160.80 High Oct 25 now support
*SUP 4: 160.16 Monthly Low Oct 2
*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 55-DMA (162.33)
with the sell-off and bearish close Thursday returning pressure to the daily
bull channel base. Bears continue to look for a close below the bull channel
base to end bullish hopes and shift focus to tests of 159.78-160.26 where
monthly lows are located. Bulls now need a close above 132.37 to ease bearish
pressure and above the 21-DAM to shift focus back to tests of 163.78 Dec highs.
BOBL TECHS: (H18) Above 131.74 To Ease Bearish Pressure
*RES 4: 132.254 55-DMA 
*RES 3: 131.984 100-DMA 
*RES 2: 131.880 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance 
*RES 1: 131.740 High Dec 21
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.580
*SUP 1: 131.520 Low Dec 28
*SUP 2: 131.430 Low Dec 27
*SUP 3: 131.389 Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 4: 131.350 Monthly Low Nov 30 (cont)
*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base (131.549) remain the key
concern for bears given the bounce from the bull channel base Wednesday. Bulls
continue to look for a close above 131.74 to ease bearish pressure and above the
100-DMA to hint at a correction back to 132.222-250. While 131.740 caps bears
remain focused on 130.920-131.350 where Nov lows are noted.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 111.915 Support Key Today
*RES 4: 112.075 Hourly resistance Dec 19 
*RES 3: 112.035 High Dec 20 
*RES 2: 112.000 High Dec 21 
*RES 1: 111.975 High Dec 28
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.945
*SUP 1: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 
*SUP 2: 111.850 Low Dec 27 
*SUP 3: 111.840 Low July 6 (cont) 
*SUP 4: 111.805 2017 Low June 28
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive bounce ahead of the 2017 low eased bearish pressure
with bulls now needing a close above 112.035 to shift focus to 112.089-120 where
key DMAs are situated. Correcting O/S studies add support to the bullish case
for a bigger correction. Bears need a close below 111.915 to maintain focus on
111.805-840 where 2017 lows are situated. The Bollinger base (111.923) remains a
key concern for bears recently limiting follow through.
GILT TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 124.57
*RES 4: 126.69 High Dec 15 
*RES 3: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 
*RES 2: 125.88 Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 1: 125.69 High Dec 15
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 125.07
*SUP 1: 124.90 Hourly resistance Dec 27 now support 
*SUP 2: 124.57 Low Dec 27 
*SUP 3: 124.11 Low Dec 21 
*SUP 4: 124.08 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand following the recovery from ahead of
the 55-DMA and aggressive rally Wednesday. Bulls currently focus on the
125.69-00 region where the Dec high and bull channel top are situated. Daily
studies are well placed for gains. Bears still need a close below 124.57 to ease
bullish pressure and shift pressure back to 124.08-11 where the 55-DMA remains.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.410 & 99.450 Levels Key
*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14
*RES 3: 99.481 200-DMA
*RES 2: 99.477 55-WMA
*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.435
*SUP 1: 99.418 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support
*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8
*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29
*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out 99.450 is a concern for bulls with the
Bollinger band top (99.460) limiting follow through and daily studies correcting
from modestly O/B. Bears need a close below 99.410 to ease bullish pressure and
below 99.370 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (99.386) and hint at a move back
to 99.300-310 with below 99.350 to confirm. Bulls need a close above 99.450 to
shift focus to 99.477-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.
EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Pressuring Key Support Region
*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance 
*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 
*RES 2: 100.333 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 1: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310
*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12
*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5
*SUP 3: 100.301 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1
*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above 100.325 was less than ideal for
bulls given daily studies correcting from modestly O/B levels. The 100.305-310
support region remains key. Bears need a close below 100.305 to ease bullish
pressure and shift focus to 100.295-301 where the bull channel base and 100-DMA
are located. Bulls still need a close above 100.325 to initially pressure the
bull channel top and then target 100.340-380.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 123-21+
*RES 4: 124-23 High Dec 6
*RES 3: 124-18+ Daily Bear channel top
*RES 2: 124-14+ 55-DMA
*RES 1: 124-02+ 21-DMA
*PRICE: 123-27+ @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 123-21+ High Dec 27 now support
*SUP 2: 123-12+ Low Dec 21
*SUP 3: 123-07+ High Mar 13 now support
*SUP 4: 123-00+ Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the bounce Wednesday that saw bearish
pressure eased and focus return to layers of resistance 124-02+/23 where 21 &
55-DMAs and the bear channel top are situated. Bulls need a close above 124-23
to hint at a move back to 125-25+. The 123-21+ support remains key. Bears need a
close below this level to reconfirm dominance and return pressure to 123-00+/12+
where the bear channel base is noted.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Focused On 2.344-398
*RES 4: 2.504 - High Dec 21 
*RES 3: 2.479 - High Dec 27 
*RES 2: 2.459 - Low Dec 26 now resistance 
*RES 1: 2.441 - High Dec 28
*PRICE: 2.434 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.405 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: 2.375 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14 
*SUP 4: 2.298 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the weekly bear channel top (2.534) combined
with waning momentum provided the impetus for a correction that eased bullish
pressure. Focus returned to 2.344-405 where key DMAs and the bull channel base
are noted. Bears now need a close below 2.344 to confirm breaks and initially
pressure the 200-DMA. Bulls now need a close above 2.441 to gain breathing room
and above 2.479 to shift focus higher.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Closes Below 200-DMA 
*RES 4: 3597.05 Hourly support Dec 18 now resistance 
*RES 3: 3576.49 Hourly resistance Dec 21 
*RES 2: 3550.78 100-DMA 
*RES 1: 3537.33 200-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3524.31
*SUP 1: 3519.35 Low Dec 7 
*SUP 2: 3497.29 High Aug 16 now support 
*SUP 3: 3467.94 High Sept 7 now support 
*SUP 4: 3396.69 Monthly Low Sept 6
*COMMENTARY: The close below the weekly bull channel base off July 2016 lows and
200-DMA adds weight to the bearish case but a close below 3519.35 remains needed
to confirm a bearish bias and below 3467.78 targets 3363.68 Aug lows. Layers of
resistance accumulating add to bearish confidence with bulls now needing a close
above the 100-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 3620.01 to gain traction
topside.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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