MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

8 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Hesitating Around 100-DMA

*RES 4: 162.55 21-DMA

*RES 3: 162.37 High Dec 27

*RES 2: 161.87 High Dec 29

*RES 1: 161.83 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.62

*SUP 1: 161.50 Low Jan 5

*SUP 2: 161.18 Low Jan 2

*SUP 3: 160.80 High Oct 25 now support

*SUP 4: 160.26 Monthly Low Oct 2

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the daily bull channel base took its toll

with bears focused on 159.78-160.26 and below 160.80 to add weight to their

case. O/S daily studies looking to correct and the Bollinger base (160.83)

remain key concerns for bears with potential to limit follow through. Bulls now

need a close above 161.87 to ease bearish pressure and above 162.37 to hint at a

move back to 163.78.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) 131.760 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 132.208 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 132.018 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 131.880 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: 131.760 High Dec 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.650

*SUP 1: 131.430 Low Dec 27

*SUP 2: 131.350 Monthly Low Nov 30 (cont)

*SUP 3: 131.236 Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 131.240 Weekly Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern for

bears given the bounce from the bear channel base in recent weeks. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 131.760 to ease bearish pressure and above

the 100-DMA to shift immediate focus to 132.208-240. While 131.760 caps bears

remain focused on 130.920-131.350 where Nov lows are noted with below 131.430 to

add weight to the case.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 112.000-035 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 112.075 Hourly resistance Dec 19 

*RES 3: 112.068 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.035 High Dec 20 

*RES 1: 112.000 High Dec 21 & Jan 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.945

*SUP 1: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 2: 111.850 Low Dec 27 

*SUP 3: 111.840 Low July 6 (cont) 

*SUP 4: 111.805 2017 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive bounce ahead of the 2017 low eased bearish pressure

with bulls needing a close above 112.035 to shift focus to 112.060-109 where key

DMAs are situated. Correcting O/S studies add support to the bullish case for a

bigger correction. Bears need a close below 111.915 to maintain focus on

111.805-840 where 2017 lows are situated.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Broad Sideways Trading Continues

*RES 4: 126.01 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 125.69 High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 125.41 High Dec 27 

*RES 1: 124.96 High Jan 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.65

*SUP 1: 124.50 Low Jan 4 

*SUP 2: 124.05 Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: 123.99 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 123.75 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to whip around within a broad 124.05-125.41

range. Bears continue to look for a close below 123.62 to confirm a break of the

bull channel base and to shift overall focus to tests of 122.44 Oct lows. Bulls

need a close above 125.69 to initially pressure the bull channel top and hint at

a test of 126.00. Daily studies are at largely neutral levels and Bollinger

bands are beginning to narrow.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Pressuring Key Resistance

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.480 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.478 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.450

*SUP 1: 99.431 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the key 99.450 resistance level. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 99.450 to shift focus to 99.478-520 where the 55-WMA

and 200-DMA are noted. The 21-DMA remains initial support with bears now needing

a close below to gain breathing room. A close below 99.390 is needed to confirm

a break of the 55-DMA (99.397) and hint at a move back to 99.300-310.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Key Support Holding Firm For Now

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.335 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 1: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 3: 100.303 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the 100.310 support with bears needing a close

below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to hint at

a move back to 100.285. The 100.325 resistance level remains key. Bulls need a

close above 100.325 to reconfirm dominance and above the bull channel top to

shift focus to 100.340-380 last seen in 2016.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Remains Capped Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: 124-15+ Daily Bear channel top

*RES 3: 124-10+ 55-DMA

*RES 2: 124-02+ High Dec 29

*RES 1: 123-29+ 21-DMA

*PRICE: 123-16+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 123-12+ Low Dec 21

*SUP 2: 123-07+ High Mar 13 now support

*SUP 3: 122-29+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 122-20+ Monthly Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Despite recovering from Dec lows the contract has remained capped

ahead of the 21-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above 124-02+to confirm an

easing of bearish pressure and return focus to layers of resistance 124-10+/23

where the 55-DMA and bear channel top are situated. While the 21-DMA caps

immediate bearish focus remains on tests of the bear channel base coming in

around 122-29+.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 3: 2.529 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high) 

*RES 2: 2.504 - High Dec 21 

*RES 1: 2.487 - High Jan 4

*PRICE: 2.476 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.420 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.386 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: 2.297 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support ahead of the 21-DMA providing a

bounce to start the new year. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.504 to

confirm focus on tests of 2016 & 2017 highs 2.629-641. Layers of support remain

with bears now needing a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes and hint at

a test of the 200-DMA with below 2.344 to confirm.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3620.01 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3620.01 High Nov 10

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3607.63

*SUP 1: 3589.09 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3570.51 Low Jan 5 

*SUP 3: 3524.31 Hourly resistance Dec 29 now support 

*SUP 4: 3508.37 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from the week's lows with the

close above the 55-DMA Friday seeing immediate focus back on 3620.01. Bulls look

for a close above 3620.01 to gain traction topside and shift overall focus back

to 2017 highs (3708.82). Correcting O/S studies add support to the bullish case.

Bears now need a close below 3570.51 to ease pressure on resistance layers.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]