MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

17 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Layers of Resistance 161.56-162.37

*RES 4: 162.04 High Jan 8

*RES 3: 161.69 21-DMA

*RES 2: 161.56 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance

*RES 1: 160.97 High Jan 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.83

*SUP 1: 160.55 Hourly support Jan 16

*SUP 2: 160.11 2018 Low Jan 12

*SUP 3: 159.92 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the marginal close above 160.80 easing

immediate bearish pressure. Layers of resistance remain 161.56-162.37 where key

DMAs are located. Bulls continue to look for a close above 162.37 to end bearish

hopes and hint at a move back to 163.78 Dec highs with above 162.79 confirming.

Bears now need a close below 160.55 to gain breathing room and retain focus on

158.47-159.78 where the 200-WMA is noted.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) 131.270-340 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 131.720 High Jan 11 

*RES 3: 131.520 Low Jan 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: 131.340 Hourly resistance Jan 11 

*RES 1: 131.270 Highs Jan 15 & 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.220

*SUP 1: 131.080 Hourly support Jan 15

*SUP 2: 130.922 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 130.920 2017 Low Sept 28, 2018 Low Jan 12

*SUP 4: 130.580 Low Nov 16 2016

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the dip to 130.92 has so far lacked

follow through with pressure on the 131.270-340 resistance. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 131.340 to ease bearish pressure and above 131.520 to

pressure 131.720-880. While 131.340 caps bears remain focused on the close below

2017/18 lows needed to confirm focus on 130.390-580.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 111.915-940 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 111.985 High Jan 11 

*RES 3: 111.940 Lows Jan 4 & 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: 111.895 High Jan 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.875

*SUP 1: 111.860 Lows Jan 15 & 16 

*SUP 2: 111.830 2018 Low Jan 12 

*SUP 3: 111.805 2017 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: 111.800 Low May 20 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bears reconfirmed dominance with a sell-off and bearish close that

sees focus on layers of support 111.750-745 where yearly and monthly lows are

located. Bulls look for a close above 111.915 to ease bearish pressure above

111.940 to hint at a correction back to 111.970-112.035 where 2018 highs and the

21-DMA are located. Above 112.035 is needed to shift focus to 55 (112.075) & 100

(112.090) DMAs.

GILT TECHS: (H18) 124.20-96 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 125.41 High Dec 27 

*RES 3: 124.96 High Jan 3 & 8 

*RES 2: 124.50 High Jan 11 

*RES 1: 124.20 High Jan 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.93

*SUP 1: 123.69 Hourly support Jan 15 

*SUP 2: 123.26 2018 Low Jan 12 

*SUP 3: 123.12 Monthly Low Nov 30 

*SUP 4: 122.44 Monthly Low Oct 25

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week although bulls take a little comfort in

the lack of follow through on 2mth and 2018 lows with the Bollinger base noted

at 123.47. Bears still look for a close below 123.12 to confirm focus on 122.44

Oct lows. Bulls now need a close above 124.20 to ease immediate bearish pressure

and above 124.96 to shift focus back to 125.41-69. Daily studies approaching O/S

and the Bollinger base remain key concerns for bears.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.450

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.479 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.478 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.450

*SUP 1: 99.435 Low Jan 12

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: The 99.450 resistance level has held firm. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 99.450 to shift focus to 99.478-520 where the 55-WMA and

200-DMA are noted. Dips below the 21-DMA (99.942) lacked follow through with

bears needing a close below 99.435 to gain breathing room. A close below the

55-DMA (99.409) is now needed to hint at a move back to 99.300-310.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100-DMA Support Holds Firm

*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 2: 100.313 - 55-DMA, 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 100.310 - Repeated Daily lows Jan now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5. 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.304 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA holding firm with bears needing a

close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to 100.285. Initial resistance

remains at 100.310 but bulls look for a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish

pressure and shift initial focus to 100.320-325. Daily studies at modestly O/S

levels and looking to correct remains less than ideal for bears.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 123-09+/20 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 123-20 High Jan 8

*RES 3: 123-17+ 21-DMA

*RES 2: 123-09 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance

*RES 1: 123-05+ Highs Jan 11 & 16

*PRICE: 122-29 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 122-27 Low Jan 16

*SUP 2: 122-20 2018 Low Jan 12

*SUP 3: 122-14+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011

*COMMENTARY: Recent 3+yr lows resulted in dips below the bear channel base

before finding support at 122-20+. Bears look for a close below 122-20+ to shift

focus to 120-25+/121-22+. The Bollinger base (122-23+) is a concern for bears

and limits follow through. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a

close above 123-09 to ease bearish pressure and above 123-20 to shift focus to

124-02+/13+ where the bear channel top and 55-DMA are noted.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 21-DMA-2.522 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 2.629 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: 2.597 - 2018 High Jan 10 

*RES 1: 2.566 - Hourly resistance Jan 12

*PRICE: 2.550 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.522 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 2: 2.504 - High Dec 21 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.475 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.462 - Low Jan 8

*COMMENTARY: Not only was topside follow though lacking last week but a double

daily top has been left in place 2.594-597 with bearish closes leaving the yield

looking a little heavy. Bears look for a close below 2.522 to ease bullish

pressure and below the 21-DMA now to hint at a correction back to 2.403-2.444

where the 55-DMA and bull channel base off Sept lows are noted. Bulls now need a

close above 2.566 to gain breathing room.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 3642.10

*RES 4: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3653.47 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3622.01

*SUP 1: 3589.38 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3570.51 Low Jan 5 

*SUP 3: 3524.31 Hourly resistance Dec 29 now support 

*SUP 4: 3508.37 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the 3642.10 resistance is less than

ideal for bulls who need a close above this level to confirm initial focus on

tests of 2017 highs. Weekly studies remain well placed for further topside

following the recovery from a dip below the 55-WMA (3498.08) in past weeks.

Bears now look for a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below

3570.51 to shift focus back to 2018 lows so far.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]