MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

19 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Bears Targeting 200-WMA

*RES 4: 161.56 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance

*RES 3: 161.44 21-DMA

*RES 2: 160.97 Highs Jan 16 & 17

*RES 1: 160.70 High Jan 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.49

*SUP 1: 160.30 Lows Jan 15 & 18

*SUP 2: 160.11 2018 Low Jan 12

*SUP 3: 159.91 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on the recovery from 2018 lows saw the

significance of 160.97 confirmed with bulls needing a close above to ease

bearish pressure and shift focus to 161.44-162.37 where key DMAs are situated.

Above 162.37 is needed to target 163.78. The sell-off reconfirms immediate focus

back on 160.11 2018 lows and overall focus on 158.47-159.78 where the 200-WMA is

noted. Closes below the 200-WMA were last seen briefly in 2011.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 131.340

*RES 4: 131.720 High Jan 11 

*RES 3: 131.520 Low Jan 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: 131.340 Hourly resistance Jan 11 

*RES 1: 131.270 Highs Jan 15 & 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.150

*SUP 1: 131.050 Low Jan 18

*SUP 2: 130.936 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 130.920 2017 Low Sept 28, 2018 Low Jan 12

*SUP 4: 130.580 Low Nov 16 2016

*COMMENTARY: The dip to 130.92 last week has so far lacked follow through with

the contract pressuring 131.270 this week. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 131.340 to ease bearish pressure and above 131.520 to pressure

131.720-880. While 131.340 caps bears remain focused on the close below 2017/18

lows needed to confirm focus on 130.390-580.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 111.915-940 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 111.985 High Jan 11 

*RES 3: 111.940 Lows Jan 4 & 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: 111.905 High Jan 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.895

*SUP 1: 111.855 Low Jan 18 

*SUP 2: 111.830 2018 Low Jan 12 

*SUP 3: 111.805 2017 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: 111.800 Low May 20 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bears reconfirmed dominance with a sell-off and bearish close last

week that sees overall focus on layers of support 111.750-745 where yearly and

monthly lows are located. Bulls still look for a close above 111.915 to ease

bearish pressure & above 111.940 to hint at a correction back to

111.970-112.035. Above 112.035 is needed to shift focus to 55 (112.065) & 100

(112.083) DMAs.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Below 132.12 To Confirm Focus On 122.44

*RES 4: 125.41 High Dec 27 

*RES 3: 124.96 High Jan 3 & 8 

*RES 2: 124.50 High Jan 11 

*RES 1: 124.20 High Jan 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.62

*SUP 1: 123.26 2018 Low Jan 12 

*SUP 2: 123.12 Monthly Low Nov 30 

*SUP 3: 122.44 Monthly Low Oct 25 

*SUP 4: 121.26 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The contract has remained capped ahead of key DMAs this week with

the sell-off Thursday leaving H18 looking a little heavy. Bears still look for a

close below 123.12 to confirm focus on 122.44 Oct lows. Bulls need a close above

124.50 to ease bearish pressure and above 124.96 to confirm focus on 125.41-69.

Daily studies correcting from O/S and the Bollinger base (123.35) remain key

concerns for bears.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.450 Resistance Holding Its Ground

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.479 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.477 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.450

*SUP 1: 99.435 Low Jan 12

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: The 99.450 resistance level has held firm. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 99.450 to shift focus to 99.477-520 where the 55-WMA and

200-DMA are noted. Dips below the 21-DMA (99.443) lack follow through with bears

needing a close below 99.435 to gain breathing room. A close below the 100-DMA

(99.408) is now needed to hint at a move back to 99.300-310.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.315 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 2: 100.319 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.315 - High Jan 17 & 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 2: 100.304 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA holding firm with bears needing a

close below 100.305 now to hint at a move back to 100.285. The pops above 21 &

55-DMAs lack follow through with bulls now needing a close above 100.315 to ease

bearish pressure and shift initial focus to 100.320-325. Daily studies at

modestly O/S levels and looking to correct remains the key concern for bears.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Initial Focus On 120-25+/121-22+

*RES 4: 123-05+ Highs Jan 11 & 16

*RES 3: 122-30  Hourly resistance Jan 17

*RES 2: 122-22  Hourly support Jan 17 now resistance

*RES 1: 122-20  Low Jan 12 now resistance

*PRICE: 122-11 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011

*SUP 2: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011

*SUP 3: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation has taken its toll with fresh 2018 and 6+ year

lows that see bears focused on 120-25+/121-22+. The Bollinger base (122-13+) is

a concern for bears and recently limited follow through. Bulls now need a close

above 122-30 to ease bearish pressure and hint at a correction back to

123-05+/123-20. Bears now need a close below 121-22+ to add weight to their

case.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus On 2016 & 2017 Highs

*RES 4: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 3: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014 

*RES 2: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 

*RES 1: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15

*PRICE: 2.633 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.622 - Hourly support Jan 19 

*SUP 2: 2.585 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.541 - Hourly support Jan 17

*COMMENTARY: Immediate bullish focus is on 2016 & 2017 highs 2.641-692 with a

close above this region to confirm focus on 2.748-821 where the daily bull

channel top situated. O/B studies and the Bollinger top (2.22 remain concerns

for bulls. The 2.571 support is key today with bears needing a close below to

ease bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to 2.489-522 where the

21-DMA is noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Above 3642.10 Targets 2017 High

*RES 4: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3662.90 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3628.13 High Jan 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3620.91

*SUP 1: 3587.91 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3570.51 Low Jan 5 

*SUP 3: 3524.31 Hourly resistance Dec 29 now support 

*SUP 4: 3508.37 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of 3642.10 is less than ideal for bulls

who need a close above this level to confirm initial focus on tests of 2017

highs. Weekly studies remain well placed for further topside following the

recovery from a dip below the 55-WMA (3498.88) in past weeks. Bears look for a

close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below 3570.51 to shift focus

back to 2018 lows so far.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]