MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

7 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Looking Offered Again

*RES 4: 159.90 21-DMA

*RES 3: 159.66 Low Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 2: 159.33 High Jan 31

*RES 1: 158.92 High Feb 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.51

*SUP 1: 158.44 Hourly resistance Feb 5 now support

*SUP 2: 158.01 Hourly support Feb 5

*SUP 3: 157.62 2018 Low Feb 5

*SUP 4: 156.78 Low Dec 16 2015

*COMMENTARY: Bears are yet to capitalise on Monday's bullish key day reversal

with the contract capped ahead of 159.33 Tuesday and looking offered once again.

Bears continue to look for a close below 158.44 to reconfirm initial focus on

2018 lows and overall focus on the weekly bear channel base (156.52). Bulls now

need a close above 160.36 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bear channel top

and shift initial focus to 161.13-56 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Channel Top & 21-DMA Confirm Significance

*RES 4: 131.290 High Jan 24 

*RES 3: 131.050 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: 130.925 Daily bear channel top 

*RES 1: 130.870 Hourly resistance Feb 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.600

*SUP 1: 130.480 Hourly support Feb 5

*SUP 2: 130.260 2018 Low Feb 2

*SUP 3: 130.074 Daily bear channel base

*SUP 4: 129.460 High Dec 7 2015 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA and bear channel top confirmed significance having

capped the aggressive bounce from 2018 lows with the contract again looking

heavy and initial focus returned to 2018 lows. O/S daily studies and the

Bollinger base (130.182) remain concerns for bears. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 131.050 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus to 131.450-520.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 111.840

*RES 4: 111.985 High Jan 11 

*RES 3: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 2: 111.920 High Feb 6 

*RES 1: 111.890 Hourly resistance Feb 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.860

*SUP 1: 111.840 Low Feb 5 

*SUP 2: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29 

*SUP 3: 111.765 2018 Low Jan 29 

*SUP 4: 111.750 Monthly Low May 3 2016

*COMMENTARY: The 111.950 resistance confirmed significance with the recovery

from 2018 lows capped ahead of this level and the contract again looking a

little heavy. Bears continue to look for a close below 111.840 to return initial

focus to 2018 lows. Correcting O/S studies remain a concern for bears. In saying

that, bulls still need a close above 111.950 to shift initial focus to

111.985-112.037 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located.

GILT TECHS: (H18) O/S Daily Studies Remain Key Concern

*RES 4: 123.12 Low Nov 30 now resistance 

*RES 3: 123.02 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 122.65 High Jan 30 

*RES 1: 122.24 High Feb 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.93

*SUP 1: 121.60 Low Feb 6 

*SUP 2: 121.19 Low Feb 5 

*SUP 3: 120.92 2018 Low Feb 2 

*SUP 4: 120.54 Monthly Low May 25 2016

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows looks to be struggling lacking topside

follow through Tuesday and looking a little offered as a result. Bears now need

a close below 121.61 to reconfirm initial focus on 2018 lows and then the

118.93-120.54 region where monthly lows are noted. Bulls still need a close

above 122.65 to shift initial focus to 123.02-43 where the 21-DMA is noted.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.450 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 99.471 200-DMA

*RES 3: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.437 21-DMA

*RES 1: 99.435 Repeated Daily Lows now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.430

*SUP 1: 99.415 2018 Low Feb 2 & 5

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.392 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of the 21-DMA as it flirts with

the 55-DMA (99.426). Bears still need a close below 99.390 to confirm a break of

the 100-DMA and target 99.300-310. Bulls continue to look for a close above

99.450 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and to shift focus to 99.471-520 where

the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Above 100.325 Targets 100.340-342

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.319 - Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Repeated Daily lows Jan

*SUP 2: 100.308 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5, Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA (100.308) holding firm so far in

2018 with bears needing a close below 100.305 to hint at a move back to 100.285.

Focus has returned to the 100.320-325 region with the Bollinger top currently

limiting follow through. Bulls look for a close above 100.325 to target

100.340-342 where the bull channel top is noted. Daily studies lingering at

modestly O/B levels remains less than ideal for bulls.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 122-30 Hourly resistance Jan 17

*RES 3: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance

*RES 2: 122-05+ Hourly resistance Feb 6a

*RES 1: 121-23 Hourly resistance Feb 6

*PRICE: 121-11 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-18 2018 Low Feb 5

*SUP 2: 119-24 Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 3: 118-24 Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 4: 117-29 Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to capitalise on the bullish key day reversal

with the contract rejected ahead of key 122-20 resistance and remaining heavy.

The break back below 121-10+ reconfirms initial focus to 2018 lows and then

below 120-18 to target the 117-29/119-24 support region where levels last seen

in 2011 are noted. Bulls still need a close above 122-20 to shift initial focus

to 123-05+/20 where the 55-DMA is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bounces From 21-DMA

*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 3: 2.885 - 2018 High Feb 6 

*RES 2: 2.820 - Hourly support Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.807 - High Feb 6

*PRICE: 2.783 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.741 - Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 2: 2.691 - Hourly support Feb 6a 

*SUP 3: 2.662 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from the sell-off with the yield

bouncing from around the 21-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below 2.585

to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus to 2.489-522 where the 55-DMA

(2.500) and bull channel base are situated. The recovery sees focus back on

2.820 with bulls needing a close above 2.820 to shift initial focus back to

2.885-912 and overall focus to 3.041.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Focused On 200-WMA

*RES 4: 3552.87 200-DMA 

*RES 3: 3523.28 Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3469.23 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3440.38 High Feb 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3394.92

*SUP 1: 3362.85 2018 Low Feb 6 

*SUP 2: 3355.40 Monthly High Feb 22 2017 now support 

*SUP 3: 3335.77 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: 3294.04 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 2018 highs continues with fresh 2018 & 12mth lows

seeing bears now focused on tests of the 200-WMA. A weekly close below was last

seen in Dec 2016. O/S studies are the key concern for bears today. Bull snow

need a close above 3469.23 to ease bearish pressure and above 3523.28 to shift

initial focus to key DMAs clustered 3552.87-3602.33.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]