MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

9 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Close Above 158.51 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 159.33 High Jan 31

*RES 3: 158.92 High Feb 6

*RES 2: 158.51 Hourly resistance Feb 7

*RES 1: 158.24 Hourly support Feb 7 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.12

*SUP 1: 157.80 Hourly support Feb 8

*SUP 2: 157.26 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 3: 156.78 Low Dec 16 2015

*SUP 4: 156.52 Weekly bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The bullish key day reversal failed to deliver with H18 trading at

2018 & 2+yr lows, although follow through is lacking. O/S daily studies and the

Bollinger base (157.44) remain concerns for bears who are focused on 156.52-78

where the weekly bear channel base is located. A close below 154.81 then targets

148.23 2015 lows. Bulls now need a close above 158.51 to ease bearish pressure

and above the bear channel top (159.76) to shift focus higher.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 130.990 High Feb 5 

*RES 3: 130.847 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 130.832 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 130.600 Low Feb 6 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.470

*SUP 1: 130.380 Hourly resistance Feb 8 now support

*SUP 2: 130.160 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 3: 129.980 Daily bear channel base

*SUP 4: 129.460 High Dec 7 2015 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA and bear channel top confirmed significance capping the

aggressive bounce Monday resulting in fresh 2018 & 2+yr lows Thursday. The lack

of follow through Thursday is a concern given correcting O/S studies. Bulls need

a close above 130.600 to ease bearish pressure and above 131.050 to confirm

breaks of the 21-DMA and channel top, shifting focus to 131.450-520.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Above 111.950 Initially Targets 111.985-112.035

*RES 4: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 111.920 High Feb 6 

*RES 2: 111.895 High Feb 7 

*RES 1: 111.866 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.850

*SUP 1: 111.800 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 2: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 111.765 2018 Low Jan 29 

*SUP 4: 111.750 Monthly Low May 3 2016

*COMMENTARY: 111.950 resistance confirmed significance with the recovery from

2018 lows capped ahead of this level. Bulls take comfort in the failure to

retest 2018 lows and the recovery Thursday. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 111.950 to shift initial focus to 111.985-112.035 and above 112.035 to

target 112.240 Dec highs. While 111.950 caps bears remain focused on tests of

2018 lows with overall focus on the 200-WMA (111.631).

GILT TECHS: (H18) Bears Focused On 118.93

*RES 4: 122.28 Low Jan 29 now resistance 

*RES 3: 122.03 Hourly resistance Feb 6 

*RES 2: 121.79 Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 1: 121.37 Hourly support Feb 8 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.16

*SUP 1: 120.71 Hourly support Feb 8 

*SUP 2: 120.48 2018 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 3: 119.73 Weekly Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: 118.93 Monthly Low Apr 4 2016

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of 122.28 resulted in fresh 2018 & nearly

2 year lows Thursday although follow through has been lacking with the Bollinger

base (120.82) and O/S studies key concerns for bears. Bulls now look for a close

above 121.37 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to confirm

a shift in initial focus to 123.12-124.20 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.390 Support Confirms Significance

*RES 4: 99.469 200-DMA

*RES 3: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.435 Repeated Daily Lows now resistance, 21-DMA

*RES 1: 99.427 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.410

*SUP 1: 99.405 Hourly support Feb 8

*SUP 2: 99.393 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped at 99.435 lately provided the cap for a dip

below the 100-DMA Thursday that confirmed significance of the 99.390 support by

bouncing from this level. Bears need a close below 99.390 to confirm a break of

the 100-DMA and target 99.300-310. Bulls continue to look for a close above

99.450 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and to shift focus to 99.469-520 where

the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Below 100.305 Targets 100.285-295

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.319 - Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.308 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5, Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support again confirmed significance with the dip below

the 100-DMA and bull channel base bouncing from this level Wednesday. The

100.320-325 resistance region remains key. Bulls look for a close above 100.325

to target 100.340-343 where the bull channel top is noted. Bears continue to

look for a close below 100.305 to end bullish hopes and target 100.285-295.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 121-23/122-20 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 122-20  Low Jan 12 now resistance

*RES 3: 122-05+ Hourly resistance Feb 6a

*RES 2: 121-23  Hourly resistance Feb 6

*RES 1: 121-09  Hourly resistance Feb 7

*PRICE: 121-01 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-17  2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 2: 120-15+ Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bullish key day reversal with the

contract rejected ahead of 122-20 and remaining heavy. The break below 121-10+

reconfirmed initial focus to 2018 lows and then below 120-17 to target the

117-29/119-24 support region where levels last seen in 2011 are noted. Bulls

need a close above 121-23+ to gain breathing room and above 122-20 to shift

initial focus to 123-05+/20 where the 55-DMA (123-07+) is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Double Daily Top, 2.741 Support Key

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 1: 2.885 - 2018 High Feb 6

*PRICE: 2.833 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.807 - High Feb 6 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.741 - Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 3: 2.692 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.691 - Hourly support Feb 6a

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from the sell-off with the yield

recovering from around the 21-DMA this week to retain pressure on 2018 highs.

Immediate focus has returned to 2.885-912 with overall focus on 2014 highs.

Bears need a close below 2.741 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and to

shift initial focus back to 2.691-692 where the 21-DMA is located. O/B daily

studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Focused On 200-WMA

*RES 4: 3551.43 200-DMA 

*RES 3: 3523.28 Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3469.23 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3428.11 Hourly resistance Feb 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3377.30

*SUP 1: 3360.54 2018 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 2: 3355.40 Monthly High Feb 22 2017 now support 

*SUP 3: 3335.77 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: 3293.96 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite bouncing Wednesday bulls failed to trouble the 3469.23

resistance with bears taking comfort in fresh 2018 lows and targeting the

200-WMA. O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears. Layers of

resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 3469.23 to ease bearish pressure & above 3523.28 to shift initial focus to

key DMAs clustered 3551.43-3600.36.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]