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MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, February 1

RIKSBANK: CAN'T RULE OUT RATE CUT IN H1 2024

MNI: RIKSBANK POLICY RATE UNCHANGED AT 4.0%

MNI: US JAN FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI 50.7 (FLASH: 50.3); DEC 47.9

MNI: US Q4 PREL UNIT LABOR COSTS +0.5% VS Q3 -1.1%; Y/Y +2.3%

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS +9K TO 224K IN JAN 27 WK

MNI BRIEF: Stabilizing Prices Helps BOC Turn Neutral-Freeland

MNI BRIEF: Canada Needs CAD1 Trln To Fix Housing Squeeze- CMHC

MNI BRIEF: Canada Shows No Progress Closing Housing Shortfall

MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis 

21 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
     BUND TECHS: (H18) Above 159.66 To Target 160.76-161.23
*RES 4: 159.66 High Jan 29
*RES 3: 159.33 High Jan 31
*RES 2: 158.89 Daily Bear channel top
*RES 1: 158.69 21-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.38
*SUP 1: 157.90 Low Feb 21
*SUP 2: 157.65 Low Feb 16
*SUP 3: 157.42 Low Feb 15
*SUP 4: 157.26 2018 Low Feb 8
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 158.69-159.66 continues with bulls continuing
to look for a close above 159.66 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and the daily
bear channel top, shifting focus to 160.76-161.23 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.
Bears now look for a close below 157.90 to gain breathing room. A close below
157.26 remains needed to add weight to the case for a test of the bear channel
base (156.32). Daily studies have corrected to more neutral levels.
BOBL TECHS: (H18) 130.77 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 131.38 55-DMA 
*RES 3: 131.05 Low Jan 18 now resistance 
*RES 2: 130.99 High Feb 5 
*RES 1: 130.77 High Feb 16
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.67
*SUP 1: 130.48 Low Feb 20
*SUP 2: 130.34 Low Feb 15
*SUP 3: 130.16 2018 Low Feb 8
*SUP 4: 130.09 Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: The break of the 130.54 support lacked follow through Tuesday with
pressure returning to 130.77. Bulls still need a close above 130.77 to confirm a
shift in initial focus to 130.99-131.05. Above 131.05 remains needed to target
131.38-52. Bears now look for a close below Tuesday's low to gain breathing room
and maintain focus on 2018 lows and then 128.91 Oct 2015 lows.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: 111.985 High Jan 11 
*RES 3: 111.960 55-DMA 
*RES 2: 111.950 High Jan 23 
*RES 1: 111.930 High Feb 20
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.900
*SUP 1: 111.860 Low Feb 16 
*SUP 2: 111.840 Low Feb 15 
*SUP 3: 111.835 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: 111.800 Low Feb 8
*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through Tuesday is less than ideal for
bulls with layers of resistance now noted 111.930-960 including the 55-DMA.
Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to end bearish hopes and
shift focus to 112.000-035 with the 100-DMA at 112.020. Bears need a close below
111.835 to reconfirm initial focus on 2018 lows. Fresh 2018 lows are needed to
initially target 111.580-660.
GILT TECHS: (H18) Below 120.74 To See Focus Back On 2018 Low
*RES 4: 121.97 High Feb 7 
*RES 3: 121.71 21-DMA 
*RES 2: 121.69 High Feb 9 
*RES 1: 121.46 High Feb 16
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.32
*SUP 1: 120.74 High Feb 15 now support 
*SUP 2: 120.13 2018 Low Feb 15 
*SUP 3: 119.35 Low Apr 29 2016 
*SUP 4: 118.93 Monthly Low Apr 26 2016
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on 2018 lows was followed up with an
aggressive bounce and relatively bullish close Friday that increases the risk of
a test of 122.24 with a close above the 21-DMA now needed to confirm. Above
122.24 is needed to hint at a move back to 123.12-29 with above 122.65 to
confirm. Bears need a close below 120.74 to return initial focus to 2018 lows
and then 119.35 last seen in April 2016.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.405-450 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 99.427 55-DMA
*RES 3: 99.415 Highs Feb 9 & 12
*RES 2: 99.405 Lows Feb 9 & 12 now resistance
*RES 1: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.380
*SUP 1: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29
*SUP 2: 99.350 Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 3: 99.310 Monthly Low Nov 1
*SUP 4: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17
*COMMENTARY: 99.435 recently provided the cap for a move that sees overall
bearish focus on 99.300-310 where 2017 lows are situated. Daily studies are now
lingering at O/S which is less than ideal for bears. Layers of resistance remain
with bulls needing a close above 99.405 to ease bearish pressure and above
99.450 to end bearish hopes and initially target the 200-DMA (99.463).
EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305 Support Holding Firm
*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310
*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated Lows Dec, Jan & Feb
*SUP 2: 100.295 - Low Dec 1
*SUP 3: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct
*SUP 4: 100.280 - Monthly Low Sept 28
*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support remains key with repeated attempts to break
lower thwarted so far and leaving this level as the 2018 low so far. Bears
continue to look for a close below 100.305 to end bullish hopes and target
100.280-295.The 100.320-325 resistance region remains key. Bulls look for a
close above 100.325 to target 100.340 last seen in Oct 2016.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 120-27 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: 121-31+ Daily Bear Channel top
*RES 3: 121-23  Hourly resistance Feb 6
*RES 2: 121-08  Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance
*RES 1: 120-27  Low Feb 13 now resistance
*PRICE: 120-15 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 120-04+ Hourly support Feb 15
*SUP 2: 120-01  2018 Low Feb 15
*SUP 3: 119-28+ Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 4: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of recent 2018 & 7yr lows is less than ideal for
bears who are currently focused on 117-29/119-24 last seen in 2011 with below
120-01 needed to add weight to their case. Bulls continue to look for a close
above 120-27 to gain breathing room and above 121-23 to hint at a correction to
122-20/123-05+ with the 55-DMA at 122-23+. The Bollinger base (119-29+) remains
the key concern for bears.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3368.1 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: 3491.6 21-DMA 
*RES 3: 3474.9 Low Feb 5 now resistance 
*RES 2: 3469.2 Low Jan 2 now resistance 
*RES 1: 3436.7 High Feb 19
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3435.1
*SUP 1: 3398.6 Low Feb 16 
*SUP 2: 3368.1 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 
*SUP 3: 3306.6 2018 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: 3304.0 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correcting from O/S remain the key concern for bears
and support a correction back to 3469.23-3474.86. Above 3474.86 initially
targets DMAs clustered 3523.2-3600.3. Key support remains at 3368.10 with bears
needing a close below to end correction talk and retain focus on the 200-WMA
(3296.5). Bears need a close below the 200-WMA to target 2017 lows (3214.3).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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