MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

2 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) O/B Studies & Bollinger Top Key Concerns

*RES 4: 162.03 55-WMA

*RES 3: 161.13 High Jan 23

*RES 2: 160.36 High Jan 26

*RES 1: 160.21 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.06

*SUP 1: 159.62 Hourly support Mar 1

*SUP 2: 159.03 Low Feb 28

*SUP 3: 158.85 Highs Feb 21 & 22 now support

*SUP 4: 158.52 Hourly support Feb 22

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies and the Bollinger band top (159.75) remain key

concerns for bulls with potential to limit follow through. In saying that, bears

now need a close below 159.62 to gain breathing room and below 158.85 to shift

initial focus back to 158.52-54 and overall focus to 157.26-42. Bulls now look

for a close above 160.36 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and initially target

161.13-162.04 where the 100-DMA and 55-WMA are noted.

     BOBL TECHS: (H18) 121.290 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 131.677 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 131.520 Low Jan 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: 131.450 High Jan 23 

*RES 1: 131.290 High Jan 24

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.200

*SUP 1: 131.090 Hourly support Mar 1

*SUP 2: 130.990 Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support

*SUP 3: 130.820 Low Feb 28

*SUP 4: 130.678 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows with the close above the 55-DMA (131.170)

Thursday but bulls still need a close above 131.290 to gain traction and shift

initial focus to 131.450-520. The Bollinger top (131.128) and O/B studies are

now concerns for bulls. Bears now look for a close below 130.990 to gain

breathing room and below 130.82 to shift initial focus back to 130.610-678.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Above 112.035 To Target Dec Highs

*RES 4: 112.145 55-WMA (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.105 100-WMA (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.035 High Dec 20 

*RES 1: 112.015 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.005

*SUP 1: 111.985 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: 111.945 Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.915 Lows Feb 27 & 28 

*SUP 4: 111.895 Low Feb 21

*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure is on 112.015-035 where the 100-DMA is located.

Bulls look for a close above 112.035 to target 112.240 Dec highs although 55 &

100-WMAs may slow the move. O/B studies and the Bollinger top (111.986) are

concerns for bulls with potential to limit follow through. In saying that, bears

need a close below 111.985 to gain breathing room and below 111.945 to shift

initial focus back to 111.895-915 where the 21-DMA (111.898) is situated.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bulls Focused On 55 & 100-DMAs

*RES 4: 122.56 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 122.20 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 121.95 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 121.78 High Mar 1

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.51

*SUP 1: 121.16 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 2: 120.51 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 120.29 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 4: 119.83 Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on the minor bearish key day

reversal Tuesday with bulls taking comfort in support emerging around the

21-DMA. Gains Thursday see bulls now focused on 55 & 100-DMAs although O/B

studies and the Bollinger top (121.45) are concerns. Bears now need a close

below 121.16 to ease bullish pressure and below 120.29 to return initial focus

to 119.29 Feb lows.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Focus Back On Key DMAs

*RES 4: 99.419 55-DMA

*RES 3: 99.405 Lows Feb 9 & 12 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.398 100-DMA

*RES 1: 99.385 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.370

*SUP 1: 99.345 High Feb 27 now support

*SUP 2: 99.335 Low Feb 28

*SUP 3: 99.310 High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 4: 99.290 2018 Low Feb 26

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr lows were seen Monday but the lack of follow

through has seen a recovery and focus now back on key DMAs 99.385-419 as daily

studies return to neutral levels. Support layers are now building with bears

needing a close below 99.335 to reconfirm initial focus on tests of 2018 lows

and overall focus on 99.180-270.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305 & 100.315 Levels Key Today

*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 2: 100.318 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Feb 23 & Mar 1

*SUP 2: 100.295 - Low Dec 1, 2018 Low Feb 23 & 26

*SUP 3: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*SUP 4: 100.280 - Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging at 100.295 resulted in a pop above the 55-DMA

(100.312) but follow through has been lacking. Bulls now need a close above

100.315 to confirm breaks of key DMAs and shift initial focus to 100.320-325.

Bears now need a close below 100.305 to retain focus on 100.285-295 where the

200-DMA (100.287) is located.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 121-01+ Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 122-02  Monthly High Feb 6

*RES 3: 121-26+ 55-DMA

*RES 2: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 1: 120-28+ Daily Bear channel top (off Jan 2 high)

*PRICE: 120-19 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-14  High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 2: 120-07+ 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 120-00  Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 4: 119-21  Repeated Daily lows Feb

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as M18 gains traction above the 21-DMA with

immediate focus now on 120-28+/121-01+ where the bear channel top is noted.

Bulls need a close above 121-01+ to shift initial focus to 121-26+/122-02 where

the 55-DMA is located. Support layers emerging adds to bullish confidence with

bears now needing a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below

120-00 to pressure 119-14 Feb lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 2.758 Targets 2.609-648

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.925 - High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 2.875 - High Mar 1 

*RES 1: 2.824 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.810 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: 2.758 - Low Feb 7

*SUP 3: 2.648 - Low Feb 6, 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less

than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Focus has now returned to

2.758-786 following the close below the daily bull channel base (2.826) and

21-DMA (2.855). Bears now look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and

shift focus back to 2.609-648 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls now need a close

above 2.875 to gain breathing room.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Focus Returns To 2018 Low

*RES 4: 3523.28 Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3476.21 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 3441.09 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3420.59 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3399.16

*SUP 1: 3387.02 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 2: 3368.10 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 3: 3311.29 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Bearish focus has returned to the 2018 low following losses that

have defined the week and a close below the 21-DMA (3425.40). Correcting O/B

studies add weight to the bearish case as does the accumulation of layers of

resistance. Bulls now look for a close above 3441.09 to gain breathing room and

above 3476.21 to regain control and shift focus back to 3523.28-3570.95 where

55, 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]