-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis
5 March 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (H18) 160.36 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 162.03 55-WMA
*RES 3: 161.13 High Jan 23
*RES 2: 160.36 High Jan 26
*RES 1: 160.15 55-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.62
*SUP 1: 159.51 Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support
*SUP 2: 159.03 Low Feb 28
*SUP 3: 158.85 Highs Feb 21 & 22 now support
*SUP 4: 158.52 Hourly support Feb 22
*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies and the Bollinger band top (159.91) remain key
concerns for bulls and continue to limit follow through. In saying that, bears
now need a close below 159.51 to gain breathing room and below 158.85 to shift
initial focus back to 158.52-59 and overall focus to 157.26-42. Bulls now look
for a close above 160.36 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and initially target
161.11-162.04 where the 100-DMA and 55-WMA are noted.
BOBL TECHS: (H18) Topside Hesitation A Concern
*RES 4: 131.670 100-DMA
*RES 3: 131.520 Low Jan 10 now resistance
*RES 2: 131.450 High Jan 23
*RES 1: 131.300 High Mar 2
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.130
*SUP 1: 131.090 Hourly support Mar 1
*SUP 2: 130.990 Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support
*SUP 3: 130.820 Low Feb 28
*SUP 4: 130.709 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the break of 131.290 Friday
is a concern for bulls with minor momentum divergence note and daily studies at
O/B levels. Bears continue to look for a close below 130.990 to gain breathing
room and below 130.82 to shift initial focus back to 130.610-709. Bulls now need
a close above 131.300 to shift initial focus to 131.450-520. The Bollinger top
(131.201) limits follow through.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Above 112.035 To Target Dec Highs
*RES 4: 112.145 55-WMA (Cont)
*RES 3: 112.105 100-WMA (Cont)
*RES 2: 112.035 High Dec 20
*RES 1: 112.015 100-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.010
*SUP 1: 111.985 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support
*SUP 2: 111.945 Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support
*SUP 3: 111.915 Lows Feb 27 & 28
*SUP 4: 111.895 Low Feb 21
*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure is on 112.015-035 where the 100-DMA is located.
Bulls look for a close above 112.035 to target 112.240 Dec highs although 55 &
100-WMAs may slow the move. O/B studies and the Bollinger top (112.002) are
concerns for bulls and limit follow through. In saying that, bears need a close
below 111.985 to gain breathing room and below 111.945 to shift initial focus
back to 111.895-915 where the 21-DMA (111.906) is situated.
GILT TECHS: (M18) Bulls Focused On 55 & 100-DMAs
*RES 4: 122.55 100-DMA
*RES 3: 122.16 55-DMA
*RES 2: 122.09 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 1: 122.02 High Mar 2
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.60
*SUP 1: 121.43 Low Mar 2
*SUP 2: 121.16 Low Mar 1
*SUP 3: 120.54 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 120.29 Low Feb 22
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the minor bearish key day reversal
Tuesday with bulls taking comfort in support emerging around the 21-DMA. Gains
Thursday see bulls currently focused on 55 & 100-DMAs although O/B studies and
the Bollinger top (121.58) are concerns. Bears still need a close below 121.16
to ease bullish pressure and below 120.29 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA &
return initial focus to 119.29 Feb lows.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Focus Back On Key DMAs
*RES 4: 99.418 55-DMA
*RES 3: 99.405 Lows Feb 9 & 12 now resistance
*RES 2: 99.399 100-DMA
*RES 1: 99.383 21-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.380
*SUP 1: 99.345 High Feb 27 now support
*SUP 2: 99.335 Low Feb 28
*SUP 3: 99.310 High Feb 26 now support
*SUP 4: 99.290 2018 Low Feb 26
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr lows were seen last Monday but the lack of follow
through has seen a recovery and focus now back on key DMAs 99.383-418 as daily
studies return to neutral levels. Support layers are now building with bears
needing a close below 99.335 to reconfirm initial focus on tests of 2018 lows
and overall focus on 99.180-270.
EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305 & 100.315 Levels Remain Key
*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15
*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec
*RES 2: 100.318 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315
*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Feb 23 & Mar 1
*SUP 2: 100.295 - Low Dec 1, 2018 Low Feb 23 & 26
*SUP 3: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct
*SUP 4: 100.280 - Low Oct 6
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging at 100.295 has resulted in pops above the 55-DMA
(100.311) but follow through has been lacking. Bulls still need a close above
100.315 to confirm breaks of key DMAs and shift initial focus to 100.320-325.
Bears now need a close below 100.305 to retain focus on 100.285-295 where the
200-DMA (100.288) is located.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 121-01+ Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 121-24+ 55-DMA
*RES 3: 121-01+ High Feb 7
*RES 2: 120-26+ Daily Bear channel top (off Jan 2 high)
*RES 1: 120-13+ Hourly resistance Mar 2
*PRICE: 120-11 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 120-00 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 2: 119-21 Repeated Daily lows Feb
*SUP 3: 119-14 Monthly Low Feb 15
*SUP 4: 118-21 Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on gains with the contract remaining
capped ahead of the bear channel top. Bulls still need a close above 121-01+ to
shift initial focus to 121-24+/122-02 where the 55-DMA is located. Support
layers emerging adds to bullish confidence with bears still needing a close
below 120-00 to shift focus away from resistance layers and initially pressure
119-14 Feb lows. A close below targets the channel base (118-21+).
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 2.875
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2
*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21
*RES 2: 2.925 - High Feb 27
*RES 1: 2.875 - High Mar 1
*PRICE: 2.842 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.830 - Hourly support Feb 2
*SUP 2: 2.793 - Low Mar 2
*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9
*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less
than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Bears have so far failed to
capitalise on last week's sell-off with the yield bouncing from ahead of key
supports. Bears look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift
focus back to 2.609-648 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above
2.875 to gain breathing room.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 200-WMA Targets 2017 Low
*RES 4: 3441.09 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance
*RES 3: 3420.59 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 2: 3387.02 Low Mar 1 now resistance
*RES 1: 3358.63 Hourly resistance Mar 2
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3324.75
*SUP 1: 3313.51 Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9
*SUP 3: 3297.26 200-WMA
*SUP 4: 3214.31 2017 Low Feb 8
*COMMENTARY: Bearish focus has returned to the 2018 low & 200-WMA following
losses that defined the week and a close below the 21-DMA (3413.37). Bears now
look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows.
Layers of resistance continue to accumulate and weigh. Bulls now look for a
close above 3387.02 to gain breathing room and above 3476.21 to regain control
and shift focus back to 3523.28-3570.95 where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.