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Under Pressure

5 March 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
     BUND TECHS: (H18) 160.36 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 162.03 55-WMA
*RES 3: 161.13 High Jan 23
*RES 2: 160.36 High Jan 26
*RES 1: 160.15 55-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.62
*SUP 1: 159.51 Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support
*SUP 2: 159.03 Low Feb 28
*SUP 3: 158.85 Highs Feb 21 & 22 now support
*SUP 4: 158.52 Hourly support Feb 22
*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies and the Bollinger band top (159.91) remain key
concerns for bulls and continue to limit follow through. In saying that, bears
now need a close below 159.51 to gain breathing room and below 158.85 to shift
initial focus back to 158.52-59 and overall focus to 157.26-42. Bulls now look
for a close above 160.36 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and initially target
161.11-162.04 where the 100-DMA and 55-WMA are noted.
     BOBL TECHS: (H18) Topside Hesitation A Concern
*RES 4: 131.670 100-DMA 
*RES 3: 131.520 Low Jan 10 now resistance 
*RES 2: 131.450 High Jan 23 
*RES 1: 131.300 High Mar 2
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.130
*SUP 1: 131.090 Hourly support Mar 1
*SUP 2: 130.990 Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support
*SUP 3: 130.820 Low Feb 28
*SUP 4: 130.709 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the break of 131.290 Friday
is a concern for bulls with minor momentum divergence note and daily studies at
O/B levels. Bears continue to look for a close below 130.990 to gain breathing
room and below 130.82 to shift initial focus back to 130.610-709. Bulls now need
a close above 131.300 to shift initial focus to 131.450-520. The Bollinger top
(131.201) limits follow through.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Above 112.035 To Target Dec Highs
*RES 4: 112.145 55-WMA (Cont) 
*RES 3: 112.105 100-WMA (Cont) 
*RES 2: 112.035 High Dec 20 
*RES 1: 112.015 100-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.010
*SUP 1: 111.985 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 
*SUP 2: 111.945 Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support 
*SUP 3: 111.915 Lows Feb 27 & 28 
*SUP 4: 111.895 Low Feb 21
*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure is on 112.015-035 where the 100-DMA is located.
Bulls look for a close above 112.035 to target 112.240 Dec highs although 55 &
100-WMAs may slow the move. O/B studies and the Bollinger top (112.002) are
concerns for bulls and limit follow through. In saying that, bears need a close
below 111.985 to gain breathing room and below 111.945 to shift initial focus
back to 111.895-915 where the 21-DMA (111.906) is situated.
     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bulls Focused On 55 & 100-DMAs
*RES 4: 122.55 100-DMA 
*RES 3: 122.16 55-DMA 
*RES 2: 122.09 Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 1: 122.02 High Mar 2
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.60
*SUP 1: 121.43 Low Mar 2 
*SUP 2: 121.16 Low Mar 1 
*SUP 3: 120.54 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: 120.29 Low Feb 22
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the minor bearish key day reversal
Tuesday with bulls taking comfort in support emerging around the 21-DMA. Gains
Thursday see bulls currently focused on 55 & 100-DMAs although O/B studies and
the Bollinger top (121.58) are concerns. Bears still need a close below 121.16
to ease bullish pressure and below 120.29 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA &
return initial focus to 119.29 Feb lows.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Focus Back On Key DMAs
*RES 4: 99.418 55-DMA
*RES 3: 99.405 Lows Feb 9 & 12 now resistance
*RES 2: 99.399 100-DMA
*RES 1: 99.383 21-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.380
*SUP 1: 99.345 High Feb 27 now support
*SUP 2: 99.335 Low Feb 28
*SUP 3: 99.310 High Feb 26 now support
*SUP 4: 99.290 2018 Low Feb 26
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr lows were seen last Monday but the lack of follow
through has seen a recovery and focus now back on key DMAs 99.383-418 as daily
studies return to neutral levels. Support layers are now building with bears
needing a close below 99.335 to reconfirm initial focus on tests of 2018 lows
and overall focus on 99.180-270.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305 & 100.315 Levels Remain Key
*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 2: 100.318 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315
*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Feb 23 & Mar 1
*SUP 2: 100.295 - Low Dec 1, 2018 Low Feb 23 & 26
*SUP 3: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct
*SUP 4: 100.280 - Low Oct 6
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging at 100.295 has resulted in pops above the 55-DMA
(100.311) but follow through has been lacking. Bulls still need a close above
100.315 to confirm breaks of key DMAs and shift initial focus to 100.320-325.
Bears now need a close below 100.305 to retain focus on 100.285-295 where the
200-DMA (100.288) is located.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 121-01+ Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 121-24+ 55-DMA
*RES 3: 121-01+ High Feb 7
*RES 2: 120-26+ Daily Bear channel top (off Jan 2 high)
*RES 1: 120-13+ Hourly resistance Mar 2
*PRICE: 120-11 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 120-00 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 2: 119-21 Repeated Daily lows Feb
*SUP 3: 119-14 Monthly Low Feb 15
*SUP 4: 118-21 Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on gains with the contract remaining
capped ahead of the bear channel top. Bulls still need a close above 121-01+ to
shift initial focus to 121-24+/122-02 where the 55-DMA is located. Support
layers emerging adds to bullish confidence with bears still needing a close
below 120-00 to shift focus away from resistance layers and initially pressure
119-14 Feb lows. A close below targets the channel base (118-21+).
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 2.875
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 
*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 
*RES 2: 2.925 - High Feb 27 
*RES 1: 2.875 - High Mar 1
*PRICE: 2.842 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.830 - Hourly support Feb 2 
*SUP 2: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 
*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less
than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Bears have so far failed to
capitalise on last week's sell-off with the yield bouncing from ahead of key
supports. Bears look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift
focus back to 2.609-648 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above
2.875 to gain breathing room.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 200-WMA Targets 2017 Low
*RES 4: 3441.09 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance 
*RES 3: 3420.59 Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*RES 2: 3387.02 Low Mar 1 now resistance 
*RES 1: 3358.63 Hourly resistance Mar 2
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3324.75
*SUP 1: 3313.51 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 2: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 3: 3297.26 200-WMA 
*SUP 4: 3214.31 2017 Low Feb 8
*COMMENTARY: Bearish focus has returned to the 2018 low & 200-WMA following
losses that defined the week and a close below the 21-DMA (3413.37). Bears now
look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows.
Layers of resistance continue to accumulate and weigh. Bulls now look for a
close above 3387.02 to gain breathing room and above 3476.21 to regain control
and shift focus back to 3523.28-3570.95 where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]