MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

6 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Lacking Traction Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: 161.13 High Jan 23

*RES 3: 160.38 High Mar 5

*RES 2: 160.04 Hourly resistance Mar 5

*RES 1: 159.71 Hourly support Mar 5 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.54

*SUP 1: 159.36 Daily Bull channel base (off Feb 15 low)

*SUP 2: 159.03 Low Feb 28

*SUP 3: 158.85 Highs Feb 21 & 22 now support

*SUP 4: 158.52 Hourly support Feb 22

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies and the Bollinger band top (160.07) remain key

concerns for bulls and continue to limit follow through above the 55-DMA

(160.09). Bulls now look for a close above 160.38 to confirm a break of the

55-DMA and shift focus to 161.10-162.04 where the 100-DMA (161.10) is located.

The 158.85 support is key. Bears need a close below to shift initial focus back

to 158.52-59 and overall focus to 157.26-42.

     BOBL TECHS: (H18) Topside Hesitation Still A Concern

*RES 4: 131.520 Low Jan 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: 131.450 High Jan 23 

*RES 2: 131.380 High Mar 5 

*RES 1: 131.280 Hourly resistance Mar 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.160

*SUP 1: 131.090 Hourly support Mar 1

*SUP 2: 130.990 Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support

*SUP 3: 130.820 Low Feb 28

*SUP 4: 130.709 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through is a concern for bulls with

minor momentum divergence note and daily studies at O/B levels. Bears now look

for a close below 131.090 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to shift

initial focus back to 130.610. Bulls now need a close above 131.520 to shift

initial focus to 131.665-980. The Bollinger top (131.261) continues to limit

follow through.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 111.970

*RES 4: 112.145 55-WMA (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.115 High Dec 18 

*RES 2: 112.107 100-WMA (Cont) 

*RES 1: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.020

*SUP 1: 112-015 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: 111.985 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.970 Highs Feb 26 & 28 now support 

*SUP 4: 111.945 Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support

*COMMENTARY: Higher daily highs and lows continue but topside follow through

remains lacking with the Bollinger top noted at 112.016. The 100-DMA is now

supporting with 111.970-985 support region key. Bears need a close below 111.970

to shift focus back to 111.895-926 where 21 (111.915) & 55 (111.926) DMAs are

situated. Bulls now need a close above 112.050 to confirm focus on 112.107-145

where 55 & 100-WMAs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) 120.29 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 122.24 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 122.11 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 122.02 High Mar 2 

*RES 1: 121.43 Low Mar 2 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.31

*SUP 1: 121.14 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: 120.59 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 120.29 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 4: 119.83 Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA supported last week but continued hesitation ahead of

the 55-DMA has left the contract looking a little heavy and pressuring the bull

channel base. Bears need a close below the bull channel base to ease bullish

pressure and below 120.29 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and return initial

focus to 119.29. Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to pressure the 100-DMA

(122.55) although the Bollinger top (121.67) remains a concern.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.220

*RES 4: 99.279 55-DMA

*RES 3: 99.270 Lows Feb 2 & 5 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 1: 99.210 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.180

*SUP 1: 99.150 High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 2: 99.124 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 99.110 2018 Low Feb 26

*SUP 4: 99.080 High Mar 30 2012 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on 2018 lows and recovery is now pausing

ahead of the 21-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above 99.220 to confirm a break

of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 99.270-279 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. The 99.150 support is now key this week. Bears need a close below

99.150 to reconfirm initial focus on 99.080-110.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100.240-250 Support Region Now Key

*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 2: 100.318 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.265

*SUP 1: 100.250 - Lows Feb 26 & 27

*SUP 2: 100.240 - Low Jan 29

*SUP 3: 100.225 - 2018 Low Jan 12

*SUP 4: 100.216 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging at 100.250 has provided the base for the contract

to gain traction above key DMAs 100.255-261 but follow through remains lacking

with rejections ahead of 100.285 continuing. Bears need a close below 100.250 to

ease bullish pressure and below 100.240 to shift focus back to 100.216-225 where

the 200-DMA is situated. The Bollinger band top (100.273) remains the key

concern for bulls.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 121-01+ Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 121-21+ 55-DMA

*RES 3: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 2: 120-24+ Daily Bear channel top (off Jan 2 high)

*RES 1: 120-07  Hourly support Mar 2 now resistance

*PRICE: 119-31 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 119-21  Repeated Daily lows Feb

*SUP 2: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*SUP 3: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 4: 118-21  Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on gains with the contract remaining

capped ahead of the bear channel top. Bulls still need a close above 121-01+ to

shift initial focus to 121-21+/122-02 where the 55-DMA is located. The break of

120-00 Monday adds to bearish confidence with a close below 119-21 remaining

needed to confirm focus on 118-21/24 where the bear channel base that has

defined 2018 so far is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.947 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.925 - High Feb 27

*PRICE: 2.883 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.875 - Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less

than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Bears have so far failed to

capitalise on last week's sell-off with the yield bouncing from ahead of key

supports. Bears look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift

focus back to 2.609-668 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above

2.957 to reconfirm focus on 3.041.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 200-WMA Targets 2017 Low

*RES 4: 3441.09 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3420.59 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: 3387.02 Low Mar 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3360.45 High Mar 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3355.32

*SUP 1: 3315.61 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 3297.26 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: 3214.31 2017 Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: Bearish focus returned to the 2018 low & 200-WMA following losses

last week although Monday's bounce was less than ideal. Bears look for a close

below the 200-WMA to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Layers of resistance

remain and weigh. Bulls look for a close above 3387.02 to gain breathing room

and above 3476.21 to regain control and shift focus back to 3520.81-3570.95

where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]