MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

12 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) 156.22 & 157.69 Levels Key This Week

*RES 4: 158.28 100-DMA

*RES 3: 158.16 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: 157.69 High Mar 5

*RES 1: 157.36 High Mar 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.05

*SUP 1: 156.88 Low Mar 9

*SUP 2: 156.28 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 156.22 Low Mar 8

*SUP 4: 155.25 Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: The correction from March highs so far has found support around the

daily bull channel base off Feb 15 lows (156.42) and the 21-DMA. Bears now need

a close below 156.22 to shift focus back to 154.62-155.25 where Feb lows are

noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above 157.69 to regain the upper hand

and initially target 158.16-39 where the 100-DMA is situated. Overall focus

shifts to 159.27-58 on a break of 157.69.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) 130.400-570 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 131.094 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 130.690 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 130.570 High Mar 5 

*RES 1: 130.400 High Mar 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.280

*SUP 1: 130.210 Low Mar 9

*SUP 2: 130.016 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 3: 129.893 Daily Bull channel base of Feb low

*SUP 4: 129.840 Low Mar 8

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the aggressive recovery from below the 21-DMA

(130.044) that shifted focus 130.400-570. Bulls look for a close above 130.570

to shift focus to 130.980-131.094 where the 100-DMA is located. Hesitation ahead

of 130.400 is less than ideal. Bears now look for a close below 130.210 to ease

bullish pressure and below 129.840 to confirm focus on 129.360 Feb lows.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.835 Double Daily Top

*RES 4: 112.025 Low Nov 30 now resistance 

*RES 3: 111.902 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 111.880 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 111.835 Highs Mar 5 & 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.820

*SUP 1: 111.805 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 2: 111.760 Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.734 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low 

*SUP 4: 111.660 Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: The dip Thursday was aggressively reversed having tested the bull

channel base, 21 (111.745) & 55 (111.726) DMAs. The 111.835 level continues to

cap leaving a double daily top in place. Bulls need a close above to gain the

upper hand and initially target the 100-DMA, although the bull channel top may

cap. The Bollinger top (111.839) is the key concern for bulls. Bears look for a

close below 111.805 to ease bullish pressure and target a correction to 111.715.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) 120.29 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 122.50 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 122.02 High Mar 2 

*RES 2: 121.88 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 121.64 High Mar 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.24

*SUP 1: 120.89 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 2: 120.48 Low Feb 27 

*SUP 3: 120.29 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 4: 119.83 Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from failures ahead of the 55-DMA resulted in

a dip below the 21-DMA (120.72) but follow through has been lacking. Bears

continue to look for a close below 120.29 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

return initial focus to 119.29. Bulls take comfort in Thursday's bounce but

still need a close above Y122.02 to pressure the 100-DMA although the Bollinger

top (121.89) remains a concern.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.220

*RES 4: 99.274 100-DMA

*RES 3: 99.270 Lows Feb 2 & 5 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 1: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.180

*SUP 1: 99.150 High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 2: 99.137 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 99.110 2018 Low Feb 26

*SUP 4: 99.080 High Mar 30 2012 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2018 lows is pausing around the 21-DMA

(99.192). Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.220 to confirm a break of

the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 99.270-274 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. The 99.150 support remains key. Bears need a close below 99.150 to

reconfirm initial focus on 99.080-110.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bulls Need Close Above 100.285

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.285 - Repeated Daily highs Nov & Dec, High Mar 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.275

*SUP 1: 100.264 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.256 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.250 - Lows Feb 26 & 27

*SUP 4: 100.240 - Low Jan 29

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging at 100.250 provided the base for the contract to

gain traction above key DMAs 100.256-264 but follow through remains lacking with

rejections at 100.285 continuing. Bears need a close below 100.250 to ease

bullish pressure and below 100.240 to shift focus back to 100.219-225 where the

200-DMA is situated. The Bollinger band top (100.280) remains the key concern

for bulls.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 121-01+ Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 121-12+ 55-DMA

*RES 3: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 2: 120-15+ Daily Bear channel top (off Jan 2 high)

*RES 1: 120-14+ Hourly resistance Mar 7

*PRICE: 119-30 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 119-26+ Lows Mar 6 & 9

*SUP 2: 119-21  Repeated Daily lows Feb

*SUP 3: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on gains with the contract remaining

capped ahead of the bear channel top. Bulls still need a close above 121-01+ to

shift initial focus to 121-12+/122-02 where the 55-DMA is located. In saying

that, bears still need a close below 119-21 repeated Feb lows to confirm focus

on 118-10+/24 where the bear channel base that has defined 2018 so far is noted.

Daily studies remain at neutral levels.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.957 To Target 3.041

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.939 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.925 - High Feb 27

*PRICE: 2.903 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.868 - Low Mar 9 

*SUP 2: 2.842 - Low Mar 7 

*SUP 3: 2.810 - Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less

than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Bears have so far failed to

capitalise on the recent sell-off with the yield bouncing from ahead of key

supports. Bears look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift

focus back to 2.609-704 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls still need a close

above 2.957 to reconfirm focus on 3.041.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3429.06-3476.21 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 3507.37 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 3476.21 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 3441.09 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3429.06 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3420.54

*SUP 1: 3398.87 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3354.61 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 3: 3316.01 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the failed attempt to take out 2018 lows left a

double daily bottom in place with focus now on 3429.06-3476.21 where the bear

channel top is noted. Bulls still need a close above 3476.21 to shift initial

focus to key DMAs 3507.37-3570.95. Support layers are building with bears

needing a close below the 200-WMA (3298.44) to target 2017 lows (3214.31) and

then the bear channel base (3147.46).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]