MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

15 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Immediate Focus On 158.25-45

*RES 4: 158.45 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: 158.39 High Jan 23

*RES 2: 158.25 100-DMA

*RES 1: 158.03 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.85

*SUP 1: 157.73 Hourly resistance Mar 14 now support

*SUP 2: 157.34 Low Mar 14

*SUP 3: 157.06 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 156.88 Low Mar 9

*COMMENTARY: Gains continue with immediate focus on 158.25-45 where the 100-DMA

and bull channel top are located. Overall focus is now on the 159.27-58 region.

The Bollinger band top is the key concern for bulls and currently limits follow

through. Bears now need a close below 157.34 to ease bullish pressure and below

the 21-DMA (156.59) to confirm a break of the bull channel base off Feb 15 lows,

hinting at a move back to 154.62 and below 156.22 to confirm.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Bulls Targeting 130.980-131.047

*RES 4: 131.047 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 130.980 High Jan 11 

*RES 2: 130.763 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 130.649 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.590

*SUP 1: 130.560 Hourly resistance Mar 14 now support

*SUP 2: 130.380 Low Mar 13

*SUP 3: 130.210 Low Mar 9

*SUP 4: 130.016 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the aggressive recovery from below the 21-DMA

(130.152) and close above 130.570 that confirms focus on 130.980-131.047 where

the 100-DMA is situated. The bull channel top is noted at 130.763 and may slow

the move. Bears now look for a close below 130.380 to ease bullish pressure and

below 130.210 to shift focus to 129.840-966 where the bull channel base is

noted. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 111.805

*RES 4: 112.065 Monthly low Sept 2017 

*RES 3: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 

*RES 2: 111.945 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 111.896 Daily Bull channel top, 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.870

*SUP 1: 111.830 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 2: 111.805 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 3: 111.760 Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support 

*SUP 4: 111.750 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low

*COMMENTARY: The dip Thursday was aggressively reversed having tested the bull

channel base, 21 (111.767) & 55 (111.728) DMAs. The break of the double daily

top at 111.835 Monday shifted immediate focus to 111.896 where the bull channel

top and 100-DMA are situated and overall focus to 112.050-065. Initial support

is noted at 111.830 but bears look for a close below 111.805 to ease bullish

pressure and target a correction to 111.715.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) 121.65 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 122.89 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 122.46 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 122.10 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 122.02 High Mar 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.95

*SUP 1: 121.77 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 121.65 High Mar 13 now support 

*SUP 3: 121.19 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low 

*SUP 4: 120.93 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above the 55-DMA that see immediate

pressure on 122.02 and overall focus on 122.46-89 where the 100-DMA and daily

bull channel top are located. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls

with potential to limit follow through. Bears now need a close below 121.65 to

confirm a false break of the 55-DMA and ease bullish pressure. Below 120.89 is

needed to hint at a move back to 119.29 with below 120.29 to confirm.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 99.150 & 99.220 Levels Key

*RES 4: 99.272 100-DMA

*RES 3: 99.261 55-DMA

*RES 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 1: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.190

*SUP 1: 99.170 Repeated daily lows Mar

*SUP 2: 99.150 High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 3: 99.142 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 99.110 2018 Low Feb 26

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2018 lows is hesitating around the 21-DMA

(99.185). Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.220 to confirm a break of

the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 99.261-272 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. The 99.150 support remains key. Bears need a close below 99.150 to

reconfirm initial focus on 99.080-110 where 2018 lows are situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Gaining Traction Above LT Channel Top

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.293 - Daily Bull channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290

*SUP 1: 100.268 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.258 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.250 - Lows Feb 26 & 27

*SUP 4: 100.240 - Low Jan 29

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows as the contract gains traction above the

weekly bear channel top (100.260) off 2016 highs. Immediate pressure is on the

bull channel top with the Bollinger band top (100.291) a concern and currently

limiting follow through when combine with daily momentum divergence. Bears need

a close below 100.275 to gain breathing room and below 100.250 to hint at a move

back to 100.220-225 where the 200-DMA is situated.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 120-23

*RES 4: 122-02 Monthly High Feb 6

*RES 3: 121-08+ 55-DMA

*RES 2: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 1: 120-23 High Mar 1

*PRICE: 120-21 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-15 Hourly support Mar 15

*SUP 2: 120-07+ Low Mar 14

*SUP 3: 120-03+ 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 119-26+ Lows Mar 6 & 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in pressure returning to the 120-23 resistance

and look for a close above to gain breathing room. A close above the 55-DMA is

then needed to shift initial focus to 122-02. The Bollinger band top (120-20+)

remains the key concern for bulls. Layers of support are building with bears now

needing a close below the 21-DMA to ease pressure on resistance layers and below

119-26+ to initially focus on 119-14.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Immediate Focus On 2.758-793

*RES 4: 2.892 - Hourly resistance Mar 12 

*RES 3: 2.883 - High Mar 13 

*RES 2: 2.857 - High Mar 14 

*RES 1: 2.826 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.804 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 2.758 - Low Feb 7 

*SUP 4: 2.722 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The yield remains heavy with the recovery from 2.793 over and focus

back on the 2.758-793 support region. Bears continue to look for a close below

2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to 2.696-722 where the

55-DMA is noted. Overall focus shifts to 2.609-648. The Bollinger base (2.806)

is the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above 2.883 to gain

breathing room and above 2.925 to regain the upper hand.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Focused On 2018 Low & 200-WMA

*RES 4: 3477.75 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 3476.21 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 3446.64 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: 3417.97 Low Mar 12 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3390.98

*SUP 1: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 2: 3337.39 Low Mar 7, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: 3299.53 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears focus on the double daily bottom, 2018 low & 200-WMA

following a bearish key day reversal Tuesday and closes below the 21-DMA

(3407.57). Bears now look for a close below 3372.53 to add weight to their case.

Key resistance layers remain and add weight to the bearish case. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 3476.21 to shift initial focus to key DMAs

3499.02-3570.95. Daily studies are well placed for losses.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]