MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

21 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Topside Hesitation A Concern

*RES 4: 158.83 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: 158.52 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 158.39 High Jan 23

*RES 1: 158.17 High Mar 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.91

*SUP 1: 157.91 Low Mar 20

*SUP 2: 157.67 Low Mar 19

*SUP 3: 157.34 Low Mar 14

*SUP 4: 157.09 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the 158.39 resistance is less than

ideal for bulls who need a close above this level to confirm focus on 159.27-58.

The Bollinger top (158.52) remains the key concern for bulls and limits follow

through. Bears now need a close below 157.67 to ease bullish pressure and below

156.88 to confirm breaks of DMAs & the bull channel base off Feb 15 lows,

hinting at a move back to 154.62 and below 156.22 to confirm.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) 130.510 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 130.860 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 130.810 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 130.760 High Mar 19 

*RES 1: 130.690 Hourly support Mar 19 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.620

*SUP 1: 130.600 Low Mar 20

*SUP 2: 130.510 Low Mar 19

*SUP 3: 130.380 Low Mar 13

*SUP 4: 130.210 Low Mar 9

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is a concern for bulls with layers of resistance

now noted 130.760-998 where the Bollinger top, bull channel top and 100-DMA are

noted. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to initially target 131.380. Bears

look for a close below 130.510 to ease bullish pressure and below 130.210 to

shift focus back to 129.840-130.063 where the bull channel base off Feb lows is

located.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Above 111.915 To Retain Bullish Momentum

*RES 4: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 

*RES 3: 111.945 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 111.928 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 111.915 High Mar 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.895

*SUP 1: 111.855 Low Mar 15 

*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 3: 111.805 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 4: 111.771 Daily Bull channel base off Feb Low

*COMMENTARY: M18 is hesitating around the Bollinger band top with bulls now

needing a close above 111.915 to maintain bullish momentum and above 111.945 to

confirm focus on 112.050-065. Bears look for a close below 111.855 to gain

breathing room and below 111.805 to target a correction back to 111.715 although

the bull channel base and 55-DMA (111.738) may support along the way. The

Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) 120.89-121.14 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 123.14 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 122.44 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 122.12 High Mar 16, Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 121.94 High Mar 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.39

*SUP 1: 121.33 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low 

*SUP 2: 121.14 Low Mar 19 

*SUP 3: 120.89 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 4: 120.48 Low Feb 27

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in repeated failures around the Bollinger band

top and ahead of the 100-DMA that now sees focus back on 120.89-121.33 where the

bull channel base and 21-DMA (121.26) are noted. Bears look for a close below

120.89 to hint at a move back to 119.29 with below 120.29 to confirm. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 122.12 to confirm focus on 122.44-123.06. The

Bollinger top remains the key concern for bulls.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 99.150 & 99.220 Levels Still Key

*RES 4: 99.270 100-DMA

*RES 3: 99.250 55-DMA

*RES 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 1: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.180

*SUP 1: 99.150 High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 2: 99.145 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 99.110 2018 Low Feb 26

*SUP 4: 99.080 High Mar 30 2012 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2018 lows is hesitating around the 21-DMA

(99.179). Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.220 to confirm a break of

the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 99.250-270 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. The 99.150 support remains key. Bears need a close below 99.150 to

reconfirm initial focus on 99.080-110 where 2018 lows are situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 100.285

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Repeated 2018 Highs Jan - Mar

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 2: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 3: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*SUP 4: 100.274 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows as the contract gains traction above the

weekly bear channel top (100.260) off 2016 highs. Closes above the bull channel

top see bulls now focused on layers of resistance 100.320-340 although the

Bollinger band top (100.305) remains a concern with potential to limit follow

through. Bears now need a close below 100.285 to gain breathing room and below

the 21-DMA to pressure DMAs 100.261-264.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Focus Returns To 119-14/26+

*RES 4: 120-23  High Mar 1

*RES 3: 120-20  Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 120-16  High Mar 19

*RES 1: 120-05  Hourly support Mar 20 now resistance

*PRICE: 120-01 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 119-26+ Lows Mar 6 & 9

*SUP 2: 119-21  Repeated Daily lows Feb, Bollinger base

*SUP 3: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: Lower daily lows and highs leave the contract looking heavy with

bears taking comfort from the close below the 21-DMA (120-05+) and focus having

returned to 119-14/26+. Bears now look for a close below 119-14 to initially

target 118-24 last seen in Apr 2011. Bulls now need a close above 120-16 to ease

bearish pressure. Overall a close above the 121-01+ is now needed to end bearish

hopes and initially target 122-02.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.957 To Target 2014 High

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.934 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.925 - High Feb 27

*PRICE: 2.900 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.874 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 2: 2.852 - Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: 2.833 - Low Mar 19 

*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: The 2.758-793 support remains key and reconfirmed significance with

the correction from 2.914 finding support ahead of this region and the recovery

breaking the bear channel top off 2018 highs. The close above 2.892 adds to

bullish confidence with a close above 2.957 2018 highs to shift focus back to

tests of 3.041 2014 highs. Bears now need a close below 2.833 to shift focus

back to 2.758-793.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 3372.53 On Dips

*RES 4: 3479.17 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 3476.21 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 3448.63 High Mar 16 

*RES 1: 3424.31 Hourly resistance Mar 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3412.08

*SUP 1: 3383.17 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 2: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 3: 3337.39 Low Mar 7 

*SUP 4: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards 3372.53 provides bulls

comfort. Bears continue to look for a close below 3372.53 to reconfirm focus on

the 3300.72-3306.66 region where 2018 lows, the 100 (3319.38) and 200 (3300.81)

WMAs are noted. Bulls still need a close above 3448.63 to return focus to

3476.21-3491.57 where Feb highs, the 55-DMA and Bollinger top are found.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]