Free Trial

MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

22 March 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
     BUND TECHS: (M18) 157.67 & 158.39 Levels Remain Key
*RES 4: 158.93 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: 158.52 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 158.39 High Jan 23
*RES 1: 158.17 High Mar 20
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.99
*SUP 1: 157.67 Low Mar 19
*SUP 2: 157.34 Low Mar 14
*SUP 3: 157.19 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 156.88 Low Mar 9
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the 158.39 resistance is less than
ideal for bulls who need a close above to confirm focus on 159.27-58. The
Bollinger top (158.52) remains the key concern for bulls and limits follow
through. Bears still need a close below 157.67 to ease bullish pressure and
below 156.88 to confirm breaks of DMAs & the bull channel base off Feb 15 lows,
hinting at a move back to 154.62 with below 156.22 to confirm.
     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Close Below 130.510 To Ease Bullish Pressure
*RES 4: 130.884 Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: 130.810 Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: 130.760 High Mar 19 
*RES 1: 130.690 Hourly support Mar 19 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.660
*SUP 1: 130.510 Low Mar 19
*SUP 2: 130.380 Low Mar 13
*SUP 3: 130.210 Low Mar 9
*SUP 4: 130.088 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is a concern for bulls with layers of resistance
now noted 130.760-981 where the Bollinger top, bull channel top and 100-DMA are
noted. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to initially target 131.380. Bears
look for a close below 130.510 to ease bullish pressure and below 130.210 to
shift focus back to 129.840-130.088 where the bull channel base off Feb lows is
located.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Above 111.915 To Retain Bullish Momentum
*RES 4: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 
*RES 3: 111.945 Low Mar 8 now resistance 
*RES 2: 111.937 Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: 111.915 High Mar 19
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.910
*SUP 1: 111.855 Low Mar 15 
*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14 
*SUP 3: 111.805 Low Mar 9 
*SUP 4: 111.776 Daily Bull channel base off Feb Low
*COMMENTARY: M18 is hesitating around the Bollinger band top with bulls needing
a close above 111.915 to maintain bullish momentum and above 111.945 to confirm
focus on 112.050-065. Bears look for a close below 111.855 to gain breathing
room and below 111.805 to target a correction back to 111.715 although the bull
channel base and 55-DMA (111.740) may support along the way. The Bollinger top
is the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.
     GILT TECHS: (M18) Above 121.33 To Ease Bearish Pressure
*RES 4: 122.42 100-DMA 
*RES 3: 122.12 High Mar 16, Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: 121.94 High Mar 20 
*RES 1: 121.33 Low Mar 20 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 120.92
*SUP 1: 120.50 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 2: 120.48 Low Feb 27 
*SUP 3: 120.29 Low Feb 22 
*SUP 4: 119.83 Low Feb 20
*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out the 100-DMA (122.42) resulted in an aggressive
break of the 21-DMA and bull channel base off Feb lows leaving M18 looking
heavy. Bears now look for a close below 120.29 to confirm immediate focus on
119.29 Feb lows. The Bollinger base is the key concern for bears. Bulls now look
for a close above 121.33 to ease bearish pressure and return focus to
121.94-122.42.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bears Target Weekly Channel Base
*RES 4: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb
*RES 3: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar
*RES 2: 99.170 High Mar 21
*RES 1: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.130
*SUP 1: 99.110 2018 Low Feb 26
*SUP 2: 99.080 High Mar 30 2012 now support
*SUP 3: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016
*SUP 4: 99.012 Weekly Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped at 99.200 on the recovery from 2018 lows has
taken its toll with a sell-off that sees immediate focus back on layers of
support 99.012-110 where the LT bear channel base and 2018 lows are situated.
Initial resistance is noted at 99.150 but bulls now need a close above 99.170 to
ease bearish pressure and shift immediate focus back to 99.200.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 100.285
*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 1: 100.300 - Repeated 2018 Highs Jan - Mar
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.2995
*SUP 1: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support
*SUP 2: 100.285 - Low Mar 15
*SUP 3: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support
*SUP 4: 100.264 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Daily studies at O/B levels and hesitation at 100.300 is less than
ideal for bulls who are focused on layers of resistance 100.320-340. Bulls now
need a close above 100.320 to maintain bullish momentum. Initial support remains
at 100.290 but bears continue to look for a close below 100.285 to gain
breathing room and below 100.275 to pressure DMAs 100.262-264.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bouncing From Key Supports
*RES 4: 120-30+ 55-DMA
*RES 3: 120-23  High Mar 1
*RES 2: 120-19+ Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 120-16  High Mar 19
*PRICE: 120-07+ @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 120-03  Hourly support Mar 22
*SUP 2: 119-21+ Repeated Daily lows Feb
*SUP 3: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15
*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through and bounce from 119-14/21+ is less than
ideal for bears with the Bollinger base noted at 119-24+. Bears look for a close
below 120-03 to gain breathing room and below 119-14 to initially target
117-29+/118-24. Bulls need a close above 120-08 to ease bearish pressure.
Overall above 121-01+ is needed to end bearish hopes and initially target
122-02.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA
*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 
*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 
*RES 2: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 
*RES 1: 2.920 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: 2.868 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.865 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: 2.852 - Low Mar 20 
*SUP 3: 2.833 - Low Mar 19 
*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through is less than ideal for bulls
with the Bollinger band top capping. The 21-DMA is now initial support with
bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and below 2.833 to shift
focus back to 2.758-793. Bears now need a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes
and initially target 2.585-648. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.957
2018 highs to shift focus back to tests of 3.041 2014 highs.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 3372.53 To Target 2018 Low & 200-WMA
*RES 4: 3476.77 Bollinger band top 
*RES 3: 3476.21 High Feb 27 
*RES 2: 3448.63 High Mar 16 
*RES 1: 3424.31 Hourly resistance Mar 19
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3401.04
*SUP 1: 3383.17 Low Mar 20 
*SUP 2: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 
*SUP 3: 3337.39 Low Mar 7 
*SUP 4: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9
*COMMENTARY: Support continuing to emerge on dips back towards 3372.53 provides
bulls comfort. Bears continue to look for a close below 3372.53 to reconfirm
focus on the 3300.72-3306.66 region where 2018 lows, the 100 (3319.27) and 200
(3300.75) WMAs are noted. Bulls still need a close above 3448.63 to return focus
to 3476.21-3489.59 where Feb highs, the 55-DMA and Bollinger top are found.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
}); window.REBELMOUSE_ACTIVE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ window.dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'logedout', 'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut' }); });