MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

22 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

     BUND TECHS: (M18) 157.67 & 158.39 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 158.93 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: 158.52 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 158.39 High Jan 23

*RES 1: 158.17 High Mar 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.99

*SUP 1: 157.67 Low Mar 19

*SUP 2: 157.34 Low Mar 14

*SUP 3: 157.19 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 156.88 Low Mar 9

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the 158.39 resistance is less than

ideal for bulls who need a close above to confirm focus on 159.27-58. The

Bollinger top (158.52) remains the key concern for bulls and limits follow

through. Bears still need a close below 157.67 to ease bullish pressure and

below 156.88 to confirm breaks of DMAs & the bull channel base off Feb 15 lows,

hinting at a move back to 154.62 with below 156.22 to confirm.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Close Below 130.510 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: 130.884 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 130.810 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 130.760 High Mar 19 

*RES 1: 130.690 Hourly support Mar 19 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.660

*SUP 1: 130.510 Low Mar 19

*SUP 2: 130.380 Low Mar 13

*SUP 3: 130.210 Low Mar 9

*SUP 4: 130.088 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is a concern for bulls with layers of resistance

now noted 130.760-981 where the Bollinger top, bull channel top and 100-DMA are

noted. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to initially target 131.380. Bears

look for a close below 130.510 to ease bullish pressure and below 130.210 to

shift focus back to 129.840-130.088 where the bull channel base off Feb lows is

located.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Above 111.915 To Retain Bullish Momentum

*RES 4: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 

*RES 3: 111.945 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 111.937 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 111.915 High Mar 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.910

*SUP 1: 111.855 Low Mar 15 

*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 3: 111.805 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 4: 111.776 Daily Bull channel base off Feb Low

*COMMENTARY: M18 is hesitating around the Bollinger band top with bulls needing

a close above 111.915 to maintain bullish momentum and above 111.945 to confirm

focus on 112.050-065. Bears look for a close below 111.855 to gain breathing

room and below 111.805 to target a correction back to 111.715 although the bull

channel base and 55-DMA (111.740) may support along the way. The Bollinger top

is the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Above 121.33 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 122.42 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 122.12 High Mar 16, Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 121.94 High Mar 20 

*RES 1: 121.33 Low Mar 20 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 120.92

*SUP 1: 120.50 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 120.48 Low Feb 27 

*SUP 3: 120.29 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 4: 119.83 Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out the 100-DMA (122.42) resulted in an aggressive

break of the 21-DMA and bull channel base off Feb lows leaving M18 looking

heavy. Bears now look for a close below 120.29 to confirm immediate focus on

119.29 Feb lows. The Bollinger base is the key concern for bears. Bulls now look

for a close above 121.33 to ease bearish pressure and return focus to

121.94-122.42.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bears Target Weekly Channel Base

*RES 4: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 3: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*RES 2: 99.170 High Mar 21

*RES 1: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.130

*SUP 1: 99.110 2018 Low Feb 26

*SUP 2: 99.080 High Mar 30 2012 now support

*SUP 3: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*SUP 4: 99.012 Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped at 99.200 on the recovery from 2018 lows has

taken its toll with a sell-off that sees immediate focus back on layers of

support 99.012-110 where the LT bear channel base and 2018 lows are situated.

Initial resistance is noted at 99.150 but bulls now need a close above 99.170 to

ease bearish pressure and shift immediate focus back to 99.200.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 100.285

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Repeated 2018 Highs Jan - Mar

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.2995

*SUP 1: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 2: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 3: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*SUP 4: 100.264 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies at O/B levels and hesitation at 100.300 is less than

ideal for bulls who are focused on layers of resistance 100.320-340. Bulls now

need a close above 100.320 to maintain bullish momentum. Initial support remains

at 100.290 but bears continue to look for a close below 100.285 to gain

breathing room and below 100.275 to pressure DMAs 100.262-264.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bouncing From Key Supports

*RES 4: 120-30+ 55-DMA

*RES 3: 120-23  High Mar 1

*RES 2: 120-19+ Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 120-16  High Mar 19

*PRICE: 120-07+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-03  Hourly support Mar 22

*SUP 2: 119-21+ Repeated Daily lows Feb

*SUP 3: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through and bounce from 119-14/21+ is less than

ideal for bears with the Bollinger base noted at 119-24+. Bears look for a close

below 120-03 to gain breathing room and below 119-14 to initially target

117-29+/118-24. Bulls need a close above 120-08 to ease bearish pressure.

Overall above 121-01+ is needed to end bearish hopes and initially target

122-02.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 1: 2.920 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 2.868 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.865 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.852 - Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: 2.833 - Low Mar 19 

*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through is less than ideal for bulls

with the Bollinger band top capping. The 21-DMA is now initial support with

bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and below 2.833 to shift

focus back to 2.758-793. Bears now need a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes

and initially target 2.585-648. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.957

2018 highs to shift focus back to tests of 3.041 2014 highs.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 3372.53 To Target 2018 Low & 200-WMA

*RES 4: 3476.77 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 3476.21 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 3448.63 High Mar 16 

*RES 1: 3424.31 Hourly resistance Mar 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3401.04

*SUP 1: 3383.17 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 2: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 3: 3337.39 Low Mar 7 

*SUP 4: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Support continuing to emerge on dips back towards 3372.53 provides

bulls comfort. Bears continue to look for a close below 3372.53 to reconfirm

focus on the 3300.72-3306.66 region where 2018 lows, the 100 (3319.27) and 200

(3300.75) WMAs are noted. Bulls still need a close above 3448.63 to return focus

to 3476.21-3489.59 where Feb highs, the 55-DMA and Bollinger top are found.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]