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(Z1) Bearish Trend Condition

22 March 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
     BUND TECHS: (M18) 157.67 & 158.39 Levels Remain Key
*RES 4: 158.93 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: 158.52 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 158.39 High Jan 23
*RES 1: 158.17 High Mar 20
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.99
*SUP 1: 157.67 Low Mar 19
*SUP 2: 157.34 Low Mar 14
*SUP 3: 157.19 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 156.88 Low Mar 9
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the 158.39 resistance is less than
ideal for bulls who need a close above to confirm focus on 159.27-58. The
Bollinger top (158.52) remains the key concern for bulls and limits follow
through. Bears still need a close below 157.67 to ease bullish pressure and
below 156.88 to confirm breaks of DMAs & the bull channel base off Feb 15 lows,
hinting at a move back to 154.62 with below 156.22 to confirm.
     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Close Below 130.510 To Ease Bullish Pressure
*RES 4: 130.884 Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: 130.810 Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: 130.760 High Mar 19 
*RES 1: 130.690 Hourly support Mar 19 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.660
*SUP 1: 130.510 Low Mar 19
*SUP 2: 130.380 Low Mar 13
*SUP 3: 130.210 Low Mar 9
*SUP 4: 130.088 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is a concern for bulls with layers of resistance
now noted 130.760-981 where the Bollinger top, bull channel top and 100-DMA are
noted. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to initially target 131.380. Bears
look for a close below 130.510 to ease bullish pressure and below 130.210 to
shift focus back to 129.840-130.088 where the bull channel base off Feb lows is
located.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Above 111.915 To Retain Bullish Momentum
*RES 4: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 
*RES 3: 111.945 Low Mar 8 now resistance 
*RES 2: 111.937 Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: 111.915 High Mar 19
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.910
*SUP 1: 111.855 Low Mar 15 
*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14 
*SUP 3: 111.805 Low Mar 9 
*SUP 4: 111.776 Daily Bull channel base off Feb Low
*COMMENTARY: M18 is hesitating around the Bollinger band top with bulls needing
a close above 111.915 to maintain bullish momentum and above 111.945 to confirm
focus on 112.050-065. Bears look for a close below 111.855 to gain breathing
room and below 111.805 to target a correction back to 111.715 although the bull
channel base and 55-DMA (111.740) may support along the way. The Bollinger top
is the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.
     GILT TECHS: (M18) Above 121.33 To Ease Bearish Pressure
*RES 4: 122.42 100-DMA 
*RES 3: 122.12 High Mar 16, Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: 121.94 High Mar 20 
*RES 1: 121.33 Low Mar 20 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 120.92
*SUP 1: 120.50 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 2: 120.48 Low Feb 27 
*SUP 3: 120.29 Low Feb 22 
*SUP 4: 119.83 Low Feb 20
*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out the 100-DMA (122.42) resulted in an aggressive
break of the 21-DMA and bull channel base off Feb lows leaving M18 looking
heavy. Bears now look for a close below 120.29 to confirm immediate focus on
119.29 Feb lows. The Bollinger base is the key concern for bears. Bulls now look
for a close above 121.33 to ease bearish pressure and return focus to
121.94-122.42.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bears Target Weekly Channel Base
*RES 4: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb
*RES 3: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar
*RES 2: 99.170 High Mar 21
*RES 1: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.130
*SUP 1: 99.110 2018 Low Feb 26
*SUP 2: 99.080 High Mar 30 2012 now support
*SUP 3: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016
*SUP 4: 99.012 Weekly Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped at 99.200 on the recovery from 2018 lows has
taken its toll with a sell-off that sees immediate focus back on layers of
support 99.012-110 where the LT bear channel base and 2018 lows are situated.
Initial resistance is noted at 99.150 but bulls now need a close above 99.170 to
ease bearish pressure and shift immediate focus back to 99.200.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 100.285
*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 1: 100.300 - Repeated 2018 Highs Jan - Mar
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.2995
*SUP 1: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support
*SUP 2: 100.285 - Low Mar 15
*SUP 3: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support
*SUP 4: 100.264 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Daily studies at O/B levels and hesitation at 100.300 is less than
ideal for bulls who are focused on layers of resistance 100.320-340. Bulls now
need a close above 100.320 to maintain bullish momentum. Initial support remains
at 100.290 but bears continue to look for a close below 100.285 to gain
breathing room and below 100.275 to pressure DMAs 100.262-264.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bouncing From Key Supports
*RES 4: 120-30+ 55-DMA
*RES 3: 120-23  High Mar 1
*RES 2: 120-19+ Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 120-16  High Mar 19
*PRICE: 120-07+ @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 120-03  Hourly support Mar 22
*SUP 2: 119-21+ Repeated Daily lows Feb
*SUP 3: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15
*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through and bounce from 119-14/21+ is less than
ideal for bears with the Bollinger base noted at 119-24+. Bears look for a close
below 120-03 to gain breathing room and below 119-14 to initially target
117-29+/118-24. Bulls need a close above 120-08 to ease bearish pressure.
Overall above 121-01+ is needed to end bearish hopes and initially target
122-02.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA
*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 
*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 
*RES 2: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 
*RES 1: 2.920 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: 2.868 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.865 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: 2.852 - Low Mar 20 
*SUP 3: 2.833 - Low Mar 19 
*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through is less than ideal for bulls
with the Bollinger band top capping. The 21-DMA is now initial support with
bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and below 2.833 to shift
focus back to 2.758-793. Bears now need a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes
and initially target 2.585-648. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.957
2018 highs to shift focus back to tests of 3.041 2014 highs.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 3372.53 To Target 2018 Low & 200-WMA
*RES 4: 3476.77 Bollinger band top 
*RES 3: 3476.21 High Feb 27 
*RES 2: 3448.63 High Mar 16 
*RES 1: 3424.31 Hourly resistance Mar 19
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3401.04
*SUP 1: 3383.17 Low Mar 20 
*SUP 2: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 
*SUP 3: 3337.39 Low Mar 7 
*SUP 4: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9
*COMMENTARY: Support continuing to emerge on dips back towards 3372.53 provides
bulls comfort. Bears continue to look for a close below 3372.53 to reconfirm
focus on the 3300.72-3306.66 region where 2018 lows, the 100 (3319.27) and 200
(3300.75) WMAs are noted. Bulls still need a close above 3448.63 to return focus
to 3476.21-3489.59 where Feb highs, the 55-DMA and Bollinger top are found.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]