MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

28 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) 158.12-159.01 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 161.69 Weekly Bear channel top off Sept High

*RES 3: 160.98 Monthly High Dec 11

*RES 2: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 1: 159.58 High Dec 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.38

*SUP 1: 159.01 High Mar 23 now support

*SUP 2: 158.53 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 3: 158.35 High Mar 16 now support

*SUP 4: 158.12 Hourly resistance Mar 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls continue to gain confidence with bullish focus now on layers

of resistance 159.58-160.98 and a close above needed to target 161.66-162.79

where 55 & 100-WMAs and the bear channel top are located. O/B daily studies

remain the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below 159.01 to ease

bullish pressure and below 158.12 to shift focus back to 156.88-157.68 where the

21-DMA is noted.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Immediate Focus On 100-WMA

*RES 4: 131.456 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 2: 131.282 100-WMA (Cont) 

*RES 1: 131.210 High Mar 5 (Cont)

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.170

*SUP 1: 131.060 High Mar 23 now support

*SUP 2: 130.860 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 3: 130.760 High Mar 19 now support

*SUP 4: 130.510 Low Mar 19

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have gained traction above the 100-DMA (130.927) following an

aggressive rally and bullish close Tuesday that now sees immediate focus on the

100-WMA. A close above the 100-WMA was last seen in Dec 2017. Bulls look for a

close above the 100-WMA to pressure 131.450-456. Bears now look for a close

below 131.060 to ease bullish pressure and below 130.760 to shift initial focus

back to 130.210-510 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.915-930 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 112.115 High Dec 18 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.065 Monthly Low Sept 21 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 111.994 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.975

*SUP 1: 111.930 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 2: 111.915 High Mar 19 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.855 Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: 111.830 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort from Thursday's gains with the close above

111.915 reconfirming bullish momentum and above 111.945 confirming initial focus

on 112.050/065. Layers of support accumulating adds to bullish confidence

although daily studies approaching O/B is less than ideal. In saying that, bears

look for a close below 111.915 to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus

back to 111.805-858 where the 21-DMA (111.858) is located.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Support On Dips Back To 55-DMA

*RES 4: 123.07 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 122.39 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 122.30 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 122.26 High Mar 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.14

*SUP 1: 121.41 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 121.04 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: 120.69 Low Mar 21, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 120.48 Low Feb 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to challenge the 100-DMA with the contract

currently dipping back towards support emerging around the 21 & 55-DMAs. Bears

now look for a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 120.69

to shift focus back to 119.29 Feb lows. While the 55-DMA supports bulls focus on

the close above the 100-DMA needed to pressure the daily bull channel top.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Focus On 98.930-990

*RES 4: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 3: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*RES 2: 99.170 High Mar 21

*RES 1: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.095

*SUP 1: 99.060 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 2: 99.010 Weekly Bear channel base

*SUP 3: 98.990 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*SUP 4: 98.930 Monthly Low April 2016

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from failures at the 99.200 level resulted in fresh

2018 & 10mth lows Thursday with bears reconfirming bearish momentum with fresh

2018 & nearly 2yr lows Tuesday. Bears now focus on 98.930 April 2016 monthly

lows. The 99.150-170 resistance region remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to 99.200-229 where

the 55-DMA is noted.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) O/B Daily Studies, 100.285 Support Key

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.305 - 2018 High Mar 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows Mar

*SUP 2: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 3: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 4: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in fresh 2018 highs which add support to the

case for a move targeting 100.320-340. Correcting O/B daily studies and daily

momentum divergence are a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears continue to

look for a close below 100.285 to gain breathing room and below 100.275 to

pressure DMAs 100.265-266 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Above 121-01+ Targets 122-02/19+

*RES 4: 122-18+ 21-WMA

*RES 3: 122-07+ 100-DMA

*RES 2: 122-02  Monthly High Feb 6

*RES 1: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*PRICE: 120-30+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-24+ 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 120-11  Low Mar 26 & 27

*SUP 3: 120-10+ 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 120-03  Low Mar 22

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 55-DMA sees immediate pressure on 121-01+ with

bulls needing a close above this level to shift focus to 122-02/19+ where Feb

highs, the 100-DMA and 100-WMA are found. The Bollinger band top (120-26+) is

the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to gain

breathing room and below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 119-14/21+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Flirting With 55-DMA

*RES 4: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.859 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: 2.815 - Low Mar 26 

*RES 1: 2.799 - Hourly support Mar 27 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.782 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.758 - Low Feb 7 

*SUP 2: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6 

*SUP 3: 2.609 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 4: 2.607 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The yield remains heavy as it flirts with the 55-DMA (2.786). Bears

now look for a close below 2.758 to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and

initially target 2.585-648 where the 100-DMA is located. The Bollinger base

(2.780) is the key concern for bears. Layers of resistance are weighing with

bulls now needing a close above 2.815 to gain breathing room and above 2.859 to

shift focus higher.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 3348.19

*RES 4: 3448.63 High Mar 16 

*RES 3: 3424.31 Hourly resistance Mar 19 

*RES 2: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3348.19 Hourly resistance Mar 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3316.95

*SUP 1: 3288.92 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 3252.29 High Feb 8 2017 now support 

*SUP 3: 3214.31 2017 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: 3178.88 Low Dec 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bears are struggling to gain traction below 100 (3321.13) & 200

(3300.60) WMAs following recent 2018 & 13mth lows that shifted immediate focus

to the 2017 low. Bulls continue to look for a close above 3348.19 to ease

bearish pressure and above 3476.21 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (3468.24)

and shift initial focus to 100 (3517.43) & 200 (3518.66) DMAs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]