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MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

2 May 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (M18) 157.90-158.38 Support Region Key Today
*RES 4: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance
*RES 3: 160.08 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 159.69 Monthly High Mar 28
*RES 1: 159.55 High Apr 18
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.81
*SUP 1: 158.78 High Apr 27 now support
*SUP 2: 158.38 Low Apr 30
*SUP 3: 157.90 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support
*SUP 4: 157.43 Low Mar 24
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging below the 55-DMA (157.75) combined with correcting
O/S daily studies has resulted in a correction that sees the contract flirting
with the 21-DMA (158.86) and focus back to 159.55-69. Bulls then need a close
above 159.69 to shift initial focus to 160.98 Dec highs. Bears now look for a
close below 158.38 to ease bullish pressure and below 157.90 to see pressure
back on the 157.34-43 supports from last week.
     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Focus Shifts To 131.120-310
*RES 4: 131.380 Bollinger band top 
*RES 3: 131.310 High Apr 3 
*RES 2: 131.240 High Apr 6 
*RES 1: 131.120 100-WMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.040
*SUP 1: 130.996 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 130.780 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support
*SUP 3: 130.697 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 130.583 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips back towards the 55-DMA has resulted in a
close above the 21-DMA and immediate focus returning to layers of resistance
131.120-310. Bull snow need a close above 131.310 to confirm focus on the bull
channel top (131.840). The 21-DMA is now initial support but bears look for a
close below 130.780 to ease bullish pressure and below 130.510 to shift initial
focus to 130.210 and overall focus to 129.840.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.945 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 
*RES 3: 111.967 Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 
*RES 1: 111.930 Highs Apr 10 & 13
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.925
*SUP 1: 111.875 Low Apr 27 
*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14 
*SUP 3: 111.805 Low Mar 9 
*SUP 4: 111.715 Low Feb 27
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on dips below the 100-DMA (111.831)
resulted in a close above the 21-DMA (111.900). Bulls need a close above 111.945
to confirm traction above the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 111.967-990
where the Bollinger top is noted. Bears now look for a close below 111.875 to
gain breathing room and below 111.805 to confirm traction below DMAs and
initially target 111.715. O/S studies have corrected back to neutral levels.
     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: 123.57 Low Dec 1 now resistance 
*RES 3: 123.03 High Apr 4 
*RES 2: 123.02 Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: 122.84 Highs Apr 11 & 18
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.44
*SUP 1: 121.85 Low Apr 30 
*SUP 2: 121.50 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: 121.07 Low Mar 26 
*SUP 4: 120.69 Low Mar 21
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of 120.69 resulted in closes above the
100-DMA (122.11) with focus having returned to the 122.84-123.03 region where
monthly highs are situated. Initial support is noted at 121.85 lows from Monday
but bears now look for a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure. Bears
then need a close below 120.69 to hint at a move back to 119.29-83 with below
120.29 to confirm.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 99.270 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: 99.340 Repeated Daily Highs Jan
*RES 3: 99.310 High Feb 7
*RES 2: 99.297 200-DMA
*RES 1: 99.270 Lows Feb 2 & 5 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.260
*SUP 1: 99.230 100-DMA
*SUP 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb now support
*SUP 3: 99.210 High Apr 20 now support
*SUP 4: 99.180 Highs Apr 25 & 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to take out the 99.145-160 support region last week
with the aggressive bounce Friday seeing closes above the 100-DMA and focus now
on 99.270. Daily studies are very O/B and the Bollinger top (99.253) is also a
concern. Bears now look for a close below the 100-DMA to gain breathing room and
below 99.210 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 99.145-160
support region.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100.295 & 100.305 Levels Remain Key
*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 1: 100.305 - 2018 High Mar 27 & 28, Apr 6 & 9
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305
*SUP 1: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows Apr
*SUP 2: 100.286 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low, 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support
*SUP 4: 100.272 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation around 2018 highs saw pressure on the 100.295
support. Bears continue to look for a close below this level to shift initial
focus back to 100.272-286 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018
lows are noted. Bulls still need a close above 100.305 to target 100.320-340
with the daily bull channel top now noted at 100.323.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Back Below 119-09
*RES 4: 120-20+ Hourly resistance Apr 12
*RES 3: 120-06+ High Apr 19, 55-DMA
*RES 2: 120-02+ Low Apr 18 now resistance
*RES 1: 119-29+ High Apr 20
*PRICE: 119-12+ @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 119-09  High Apr 25 now support
*SUP 2: 118-31  2018 Low Apr 25
*SUP 3: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011
*SUP 4: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011
*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies look to be impacting with the contract closing
last week above 119-14+. Bulls now look for a close above Y120-06+ to initially
target a correction back to 120-20+/24. Bulls take comfort in the 119-09 level
supporting Friday with bears needing a close below to retain initial focus on
retests of 2018 lows and overall focus on 117-22+/118-24 where the weekly bear
channel base and 2011 low are located.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 3.073 To Target 3.183-223
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 
*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 
*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance 
*RES 1: 2.988 - High Apr 27
*PRICE: 2.974 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.934 - Low Apr 30 
*SUP 2: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20 
*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 
*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily
studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the Bollinger top (3.049). The
close below 3.007 initially targets a correction to 2.925. Below 2.925 is needed
to shift initial focus back to 2.814-887 where 21 (2.887) & 55 (2.866) DMAs are
situated. Bulls look for a close above 3.073 to shift focus 3.183-223 where the
weekly bull channel top is noted.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bullish Confidence Receives A Boost
*RES 4: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1 
*RES 3: 3600.36 Low Jan 21 now resistance 
*RES 2: 3570.95 Alternating daily support/resistance 
*RES 1: 3564.23 Bollinger band top
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3536.26
*SUP 1: 3523.81 High Apr 24 now support 
*SUP 2: 3502.91 Hourly support Apr 26 
*SUP 3: 3464.35 Low Apr 25 
*SUP 4: 3435.58 Low Apr 16
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 3523.81 took its toll with the close above seeing
immediate focus on 3570.95-3600.36 and overall focus now on tests of 2018 highs
(3687.22). O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls. Initial support
is noted at 3523.81 but bears look for a close below 3502.91 to ease bullish
pressure and below 3464.35 to shift focus back to 3383.17-3417.29 where the
55-DMA (3417.29) is situated.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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