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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z2) Primary Trend Direction Remains Down

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(Z2) Sell-Rallies Theme Intact

AUSSIE BONDS

A Little Firmer Vs. Thursday’s Closing Levels

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7 May 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (M18) Below 21-DMA To Ease Bullish Pressure
*RES 4: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance
*RES 3: 159.96 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 159.69 Monthly High Mar 28
*RES 1: 159.55 High Apr 18
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.18
*SUP 1: 158.91 High May 2 now support
*SUP 2: 158.80 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 158.38 Low Apr 30
*SUP 4: 157.90 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grew with a close above the 21-DMA that sees
immediate focus on 159.69 and bulls now looking for a close above this level to
shift initial focus to 160.26-98 where Dec highs are noted. Bears still need a
close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below 158.38 to target a
correction back to 157.34-43. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg
higher and have room to move before O/B is an issue.
     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 131.070
*RES 4: 131.516 200-WMA 
*RES 3: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont)
*RES 2: 131.342 Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: 131.310 High Apr 3
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.140
*SUP 1: 131.094 100-WMA
*SUP 2: 131.070 High Apr 30 now support
*SUP 3: 130.880 Low May 3
*SUP 4: 130.780 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the close above the 100-WMA that sees
immediate pressure on the 131.310 Apr high. Bulls look for a close above this
level to target the 131.516-882 region where the 200-WMA and bull channel top
are located. The Bollinger top is likely to limit follow through and is a
concern for bulls. Bears need a close below 131.070 to gain breathing room and
below 130.880 to shift focus to 130.510-680.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.945 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 
*RES 3: 111.947 Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 
*RES 1: 111.940 High May 4
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.920
*SUP 1: 111.875 Low Apr 27 
*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14 
*SUP 3: 111.805 Low Mar 9 
*SUP 4: 111.715 Low Feb 27
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on dips below the 100-DMA (111.823)
resulted in closes above the 21-DMA (111.895). Bulls need a close above 111.945
to confirm traction above the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 111.990.
Bears continue to look for a close below 111.875 to gain breathing room and
below 111.805 to confirm traction below DMAs and initially target 111.715. O/S
studies have corrected back to neutral levels.
     GILT TECHS: (M18) Hesitating Ahead Of Apr High
*RES 4: 123.57 Low Dec 1 now resistance 
*RES 3: 123.03 High Apr 4 
*RES 2: 122.96 Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: 122.94 High May 4
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.56
*SUP 1: 122.08 Hourly resistance May 2 now support 
*SUP 2: 121.58 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: 121.07 Low Mar 26 
*SUP 4: 120.69 Low Mar 21
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 55-DMA adds to bullish
confidence with immediate focus back on the 123.03 resistance. Bulls look for a
close above this level to initially target the daily bull channel top around
123.75. Daily studies approaching O/B are a concern for bulls. In saying that,
the 55-DMA support remains key with bears needing a close below to ease bullish
pressure and shift initial focus back to 120.69.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Hesitating Ahead Of 200-DMA
*RES 4: 99.370 2018 High Jan 3
*RES 3: 99.340 Repeated Daily Highs Jan
*RES 2: 99.310 High Feb 7
*RES 1: 99.294 200-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.280
*SUP 1: 99.270 Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 2: 99.240 Repeated daily lows Apr/May
*SUP 3: 99.230 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 99.210 High Apr 20 now support
*COMMENTARY: The contract found support ahead of the 100-DMA providing the base
for a rally and close above 99.270 Thursday that sees immediate focus on the
200-DMA. Bulls look for a close above the 200-DMA to shift focus to 99.340-370
where 2018 highs are noted. Bears now look for a close below 99.270 to gain
breathing room and below 99.210 to confirm traction below the 100-DMA and
initially target 99.145-160.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bulls Focused On 100.320-340
*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 1: 100.310 - 2018 High May 3 & 4
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305
*SUP 1: 100.300 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows Apr
*SUP 3: 100.287 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low, 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support
*COMMENTARY: Having found support at 100.295 bulls took comfort in fresh 2018 &
19mth highs with immediate focus now on 100.320-340. Bulls have room to move
before studies become O/B. Bears now need a close below 100.295 to ease bullish
pressure and to shift initial focus back to 100.272-287 where 55 & 100-DMAs and
the bull channel base off 2018 lows are noted.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bulls Now Need Close Above 120-06+
*RES 4: 120-20+ Hourly resistance Apr 12
*RES 3: 120-06+ High Apr 19, 55-DMA
*RES 2: 120-02+ Low Apr 18 now resistance
*RES 1: 119-29+ 21-DMA
*PRICE: 119-20 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 119-08  Low May 2
*SUP 2: 118-31  2018 Low Apr 25
*SUP 3: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011
*SUP 4: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011
*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging on the dip below 119-09
Wednesday with bears now needing a close below 119-08 to ease renewed bullish
pressure and return initial focus to 2018 lows. Correcting O/S daily studies
remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now look for a close above Y120-06+ to
initially target a correction back to 120-20+/24 and above 120-24 to shift focus
to 121-03+/12 with the 100-DMA at 121-03+.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 
*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 
*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance 
*RES 1: 2.996 - High May 2
*PRICE: 2.953 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.907 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 
*SUP 3: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support 
*SUP 4: 2.869 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily
studies correcting from O/B). The 3.041-3.073 resistance region remains key with
bulls needing a close above 3.073 to shift focus 3.183-223 where the weekly bull
channel top is noted. The 55-DMA is key support this week with bears needing a
close below to add weight to the case for a move back to 2.717-748 where the
100-DMA (2.748) is situated.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA
*RES 4: 3667.42 Bollinger band top 
*RES 3: 3557.87 High May 2 
*RES 2: 3549.14 High May 3 
*RES 1: 3535.75 Hourly support May 3 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3550.59
*SUP 1: 3523.00 Low May 3 
*SUP 2: 3512.63 200-DMA 
*SUP 3: 3502.91 Hourly support Apr 26 
*SUP 4: 3485.95 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The marginal dip below 3523.81 lacked follow through Thursday with
bears now needing a close below the 200-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish
pressure and below 3464.35 to shift focus back to 3383.17-3417.29 where the
55-DMA (3427.37) is situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above 3570.95
to reconfirm the bullish bias and above 3600.36 to reconfirm focus on 2018
highs.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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