MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

10 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Below 157.90 Initially Targets 157.34-43

*RES 4: 159.69 Monthly High Mar 28

*RES 3: 159.55 High Apr 18

*RES 2: 159.42 High May 7

*RES 1: 159.05 Low May 4 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.80

*SUP 1: 158.38 Low Apr 30

*SUP 2: 158.01 Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 157.93 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 157.90 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the 159.55-69 resistance region has resulted in

a correction and dip below the 21-DMA (158.76) with focus now on 157.90-93.

Bears now look for a close below 157.90 to confirm breaks of the channel base,

55 & 100-DMAs and initially pressure 157.34-43. Correcting modestly O/B studies

remain a concern for bulls. Bulls now look for a close above 159.69 to reconfirm

a bullish bias and shift initial focus to 160.26-98 where Dec highs are noted.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Layers Of Support 130.510-788 Key

*RES 4: 131.332 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 131.310 High Apr 3 

*RES 2: 131.250 High May 3 

*RES 1: 131.110 High May 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.090

*SUP 1: 130.950 Low May 9

*SUP 2: 130.880 Low May 3

*SUP 3: 130.788 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low

*SUP 4: 130.780 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 131.310 Apr highs is less than ideal

for bulls with daily studies at modestly O/B levels. Bears still need a close

below 130.880 to shift focus to layers of support 130.510-780 where the bull

channel base, 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above

131.310 to target the 131.502-951 region where the 200-WMA and bull channel top

are located.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 55-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 

*RES 3: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 

*RES 2: 111.942 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 111.940 High May 4

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.905

*SUP 1: 111.885 Low May 9 

*SUP 2: 111.875 Low Apr 27 

*SUP 3: 111.868 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 111.830 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: With bulls focused on a break of 111.945 needed to confirm initial

focus on 111.990, topside hesitation is less than ideal. Initial support is now

noted at 111.885 but bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to confirm an

easing of bullish pressure. Below 111.805 is then needed to confirm a break of

the 100-DMA (100.816) and shift immediate focus to 111.715. The Bollinger top

remains the key concern for bulls who look for a close above 111.945.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Broad Sideways Trading Continues

*RES 4: 123.03 High Apr 4 

*RES 3: 122.94 High May 4 

*RES 2: 122.86 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 122.04 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.87

*SUP 1: 121.49 High Apr 26 now support 

*SUP 2: 121.07 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 3: 121.02 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: 120.69 Low Mar 21

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to trade sideways in a broad 120.69-123.03

range. Rejection ahead of the top of this range leaves the contract looking

heavy and risks a move back to 120.69 following the close below the 100-DMA

having eased bullish pressure. Below 121.49 to confirm focus on 120.69 with

below 120.69 needed to confirm focus on 119.29 Feb lows. Bulls need a close

above 123.03 to initially target 123.78.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 99.210-240 Support Region Pressured

*RES 4: 99.370 2018 High Jan 3

*RES 3: 99.340 Repeated Daily Highs Jan

*RES 2: 99.310 High Feb 7

*RES 1: 99.292 200-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.265

*SUP 1: 99.250 Low May 9

*SUP 2: 99.240 Repeated daily lows Apr/May

*SUP 3: 99.229 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.210 High Apr 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA combined with O/B daily studies are

a concern for bulls and have seen focus shift back to layers of support

99.210-240. Bears now look for a close below 99.210 to confirm traction below

the 100-DMA and initially target 99.145-160. Bulls still need a close above the

200-DMA to reconfirm a bullish bias and to shift focus to 99.340-370 where 2018

highs are noted.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows Apr

*SUP 2: 100.291 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low, 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*SUP 4: 100.274 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 100.320-340 resistance region is taking its

toll with a close back below the 21-DMA (100.302) Wednesday. Bears continue to

look for a close below the 55-DMA to confirm a shift in initial focus back to

100.274-275 where the 100-DMA is found. Bulls now need a close above 100.310 to

reconfirm focus on 100.320-340.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Immediate Focus Back on 2018 Low

*RES 4: 120-02+ Low Apr 18 now resistance

*RES 3: 119-22+ 21-DMA

*RES 2: 119-19  Hourly support May 8 now resistance

*RES 1: 119-12  Hourly resistance May 9

*PRICE: 119-09+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 118-31  2018 Low Apr 25

*SUP 2: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 3: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*SUP 4: 117-09+ Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: M18 is looking offered with the break of 119-08 easing renewed

bullish pressure and returning initial focus to 2018 lows. Fresh lows are needed

to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel base. Bulls now

look for a close above Y119-19 to gain breathing room. Above Y120-06+ remains

needed to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (120-05+) and initially target a

correction back to 120-20+/24.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 1: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.988 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.937 - Low May 7 

*SUP 2: 2.936 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back towards the 21-DMA Friday saw a pop

above 2.996 and focus having returned to the 3.041-073 resistance region. Daily

studies are now well placed for a fresh leg higher. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 3.073 to confirm traction above 3.000 and the 2018 high and target

3.219-223 where the weekly bull channel top is noted. Bears now need a close

below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 200-DMA Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1 

*RES 3: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3591.33 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 3570.95 High Feb 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3569.74

*SUP 1: 3556.96 Low May 9 

*SUP 2: 3540.14 Low May 7 

*SUP 3: 3523.00 Low May 3 

*SUP 4: 3514.00 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in gains with immediate focus on 3570.95. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 3570.95 to reconfirm the bullish bias and

above 3600.36 to reconfirm focus on 2018 highs. Support layers building add to

bullish confidence. Bears look for a close below 3540.14 to gain breathing room

and below the 200-DMA to target a correction back to 3464.35.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]