MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

16 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) 157.34 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 159.28 High May 8

*RES 3: 158.79 Low May 11 now resistance

*RES 2: 158.33 55-DMA

*RES 1: 158.17 High May 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.85

*SUP 1: 157.51 Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 157.43 Low Mar 24

*SUP 3: 157.34 Low Mar 14

*SUP 4: 156.88 Low Mar 9

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that began with hesitation at 159.42  sees immediate

focus on 157.34-51. Bears now need a close below 157.34 to shift initial focus

to 156.22 and overall focus back to 154.62-155.25 where 2018 lows are noted.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close

above 158.38 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and ease bearish pressure and

above 158.79 to initially focus on 159.28-69.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) 130.510 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 131.040 Low May 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: 130.945 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 130.940 Hourly resistance May 14 

*RES 1: 130.804 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.720

*SUP 1: 130.584 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 130.569 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 130.550 Low Apr 25

*SUP 4: 130.510 Low Mar 19

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 131.310 Apr highs has taken its toll

with a sell-off close below the 55-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below

130.510 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA to shift initial focus to 129.84 Mar

lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a

close above 130.940 to gain breathing room and above 131.310 to target

131.487-997.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Lacks Follow Through Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 

*RES 3: 111.940 High May 4 

*RES 2: 111.900 Hourly resistance May 14 

*RES 1: 111.880 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.875

*SUP 1: 111.845 Low May 15 

*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 3: 111.807 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 111.805 Low Mar 9

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation has resulted in a sell-off Monday but support

emerging on dips back towards 111.830 is less than ideal. Bulls now need a close

above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and above 111.945 to shift initial focus

back to 111.990. While the 55-DMA caps bears focus on the break of 111.805

needed to confirm traction below the 100-DMA and initially target 111.715-724

where the 200-WMA is noted.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 120.69

*RES 4: 122.94 High May 4 

*RES 3: 122.79 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 122.50 High May 10 

*RES 1: 121.50 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.43

*SUP 1: 121.14 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low 

*SUP 2: 121.07 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 3: 120.69 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 4: 120.48 Low Feb 27

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to trade sideways in a broad 120.69-123.03

range. The close below the 55-DMA adds weight to the case for a test of the

120.69-14 region where the bull channel base is noted. Overall a close below

120.69 is needed to end broad sideways trading and initially target 119.29 Feb

lows. Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and above

123.03 to initially target 123.84.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.370 2018 High Jan 3

*RES 2: 99.360 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.340 Repeated Daily Highs Jan

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.315

*SUP 1: 99.289 200-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.250 Low May 9

*SUP 3: 99.240 Repeated daily lows Apr/May

*SUP 4: 99.228 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA came to an end with an aggressive

rally and bullish close that sees immediate focus now on 99.340-370 where 2018

highs are located. Correcting O/B daily studies remain the key concern for

bulls. Bears now need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and hint

at a correction back to 99.210-240 where the 100-DMA is situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Focused On 100-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May 

*RES 1: 100.300 - 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290

*SUP 1: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support, 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.265 - Repeated daily lows Mar

*SUP 3: 100.254 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.250 - Low Feb 26

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from recent 2018 highs has resulted in closes

below the 55-DMA (100.293) and the daily bull channel base off 2018 lows.

Immediate focus is now on the 100-DMA with a close below needed to target the

200-DMA. Bulls now need a close above 100.305 to ease bearish pressure and above

100.310 to reconfirm focus on 100.320-340.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bears Focused On Weekly Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 119-31+ High Apr 4

*RES 3: 119-13+ 21-DMA

*RES 2: 119-07  High May 15

*RES 1: 118-31  Low Apr 25 now resistance

*PRICE: 118-23 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 118-16+ 2018 Low May 15

*SUP 2: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*SUP 3: 117-22+ 2011 Low Feb 9

*SUP 4: 117-07+ Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation around the 21-DMA provided the impetus

for a fresh leg lower and fresh 2018 & 7yr lows. Bears now focus their attention

on the weekly bear channel base coming in around 117-07+. Daily studies have

room to move before O/S is an issue. Layers of resistance are accumulating and

weighing. Bulls now need a close above 119-07+ to ease bearish pressure and

above the 21-DMA to pressure 119-31/120-06+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3.011

*RES 4: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 3: 3.184 - High July 8 2011 

*RES 2: 3.117 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 3.095 - 2018 High May 15

*PRICE: 3.063 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 now support 

*SUP 2: 3.011 - Hourly support May 15 

*SUP 3: 2.972 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.937 - Low May 7

*COMMENTARY: Focus on 3.041-073 has taken its toll with fresh 2018 & 7yr highs

seeing bulls shift initial focus to layers of resistance 3.117-3.242 where

channel tops and July 2011 monthly high are situated. Daily studies have room to

move before O/B is an issue. The 3.011 support is now key. Bears now look for a

close below this level to ease bullish pressure. Overall below 2.876 is needed

to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (2.883) and shift focus lower.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Sideways Trading Continues

*RES 4: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1 

*RES 3: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3593.46 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 3574.09 High May 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3564.29

*SUP 1: 3549.26 Low May 10 

*SUP 2: 3540.14 Low May 7 

*SUP 3: 3523.00 Low May 3 

*SUP 4: 3515.89 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on the break of 3570.95 but bulls

take comfort in support emerging on dips. Bears continue to look for a close

below 3540.14 to gain breathing room and below the 200-DMA to target a

correction back to 3464.35. Daily studies lingering at O/B levels is less than

ideal. In saying that, bulls look for a close above 3600.36 to reconfirm focus

on 2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]