MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

21 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Focus Returns to 159.28-69

*RES 4: 159.69 Monthly High Mar 28

*RES 3: 159.55 High Apr 18

*RES 2: 159.42 High May 7

*RES 1: 159.28 High May 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.80

*SUP 1: 158.47 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 157.61 Low May 15

*SUP 3: 157.43 Low Mar 24

*SUP 4: 157.34 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Having remained offered most of last week bulls take comfort in the

rally and bullish close above the 21-DMA that eased bearish pressure and sees

focus return to 159.28-69 where monthly highs are located. Above 160.38 remains

needed to target the 55-WMA (161.30). Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to

signal a false break and see focus return to 157.34-61 where April lows are

found.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Focus Returns To 131.250-310

*RES 4: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 131.310 High Apr 3 

*RES 2: 131.288 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 131.250 High May 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.150

*SUP 1: 131.010 High May 17 now support

*SUP 2: 130.750 Low May 17

*SUP 3: 130.640 Low May 15

*SUP 4: 130.578 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Last week's sell-off found support ahead of the 100-DMA with bulls

taking comfort in Friday's rally and bullish close above eased bearish pressure

and sees focus back on 131.250-310 where monthly highs and the Bollinger top are

noted. Bulls now need a close above 131.310 to initially target 131.450-458

where the 200-WMA is situated. Bears now need a close below 131.010 to gain

breathing room.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 111.945

*RES 4: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 

*RES 2: 111.950 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.945

*SUP 1: 111.930 High May 17 now support 

*SUP 2: 111.870 Hourly resistance May 15 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.845 Low May 15 

*SUP 4: 111.830 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Rallies remain capped at 111.945 with bulls still needing a close

above 111.945 to shift initial focus back to 111.990. Initial support is now

noted at 111.930 with bears needing a close below to ease pressure on 111.945.

Bears then look for a close below 111.870 to return focus to layers of support

111.805-845 where the 100-DMA (111.808) is located. The Bollinger top is the key

concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 100-DMA

*RES 4: 122.80 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 122.50 High May 10 

*RES 2: 121.86 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 121.83 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.59

*SUP 1: 121.41 High May 17 now support 

*SUP 2: 120.89 Low May 17 

*SUP 3: 120.69 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 4: 120.48 Low Feb 27

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to trade sideways in a broad 120.69-123.03

range. The rally to end the week sees pressure back on 55 & 100-DMAs with a

close above the 100-DMA needed to shift focus back to the upper end of the

defining 120.69-123.03 range. While the 100-DMA caps bears retain the advantage.

Overall a close below 120.69 is needed to end broad sideways trading and

initially target 119.29 Feb lows.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 99.325

*RES 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.377 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.370 2018 High Jan 3

*RES 1: 99.340 Repeated Daily Highs Jan & May

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.335

*SUP 1: 99.325 Low May 17

*SUP 2: 99.305 Lows May 14 & 15

*SUP 3: 99.287 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.250 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure remains on 99.340-370 where 2018 highs are

located. Bulls look for a close above 99.370 to initially target the 100-WMA

(99.417) and then the LT bear channel top (99.465) off Sept 2016 highs. Support

layers are building with bears now needing a close below 99.325 to gain

breathing room and below the 200-DMA to hint at a correction back to 99.210-240

where the 100-DMA is situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May 

*RES 1: 100.298 - 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290

*SUP 1: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*SUP 2: 100.265 - Repeated daily lows Mar

*SUP 3: 100.255 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.250 - Low Feb 26

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from recent 2018 highs has resulted in closes

below the 55-DMA (100.294) and the daily bull channel base off 2018 lows.

Immediate focus is now on 100.275 with a close below needed to target the

200-DMA. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and

above 100.310 to reconfirm focus on 100.320-340.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: 119-31+ High Apr 4

*RES 3: 119-08+ 21-DMA

*RES 2: 119-07  High May 15

*RES 1: 118-31  Low Apr 25 now resistance

*PRICE: 118-27 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 118-19+ High May17 now support

*SUP 2: 118-10+ 2018 Low May 17

*SUP 3: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*SUP 4: 117-22+ 2011 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The bounce to end the week is less than ideal for bulls given daily

studies looking to correct from O/S and increases the risk of a correction that

tests the 21-DMA. In saying that, bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to

confirm an easing of bearish pressure and to shift initial focus to

119-31+/120-06+ where the 55-DMA is located. While the 21-DMA caps bears remain

focused on the weekly bear channel base around 117-00+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3.058

*RES 4: 3.249 - High May 12 2011 

*RES 3: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 2: 3.184 - High July 8 2011 

*RES 1: 3.134 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: 3.065 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 3.058 - Low May 16 & 18 

*SUP 2: 3.011 - Hourly support May 15 

*SUP 3: 2.999 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.937 - Low May 7

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel top continues to cap with bull currently

focused on 3.184-3.254 where channel tops and July 2011 monthly high are

situated. Daily studies approaching O/B is less than ideal for bulls with the

Bollinger top (3.103) also a concern. Bears look for a close below 3.058 to gain

breathing room and below 3.011 to shift focus back to 2.876-937 where the 55-DMA

(2.897) is located.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3600.36 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 3687.22 2018 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 3662.86 Low Jan 21 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1 

*RES 1: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance, Bollinger top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3573.76

*SUP 1: 3549.26 Low May 10 

*SUP 2: 3543.85 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3540.14 Low May 7 

*SUP 4: 3523.00 Low May 3

*COMMENTARY: Lackluster sideways trading came to an end with a rally and bullish

close Thursday that added support to the case for a move targeting 2018 highs

with above 3600.36 needed to confirm. Hesitation ahead of this level is a

concern with bears now needing a close below 3549.26 to ease bullish pressure

and below the 200-DMA (3517.37) to shift initial focus back to 3464.35.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]