MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

28 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Above 161.34 Targets 162.37-48

*RES 4: 162.48 High Dec 20 (Cont)

*RES 3: 162.37 100-WMA, High Dec 27 (Cont)

*RES 2: 162.04 2018 High Jan 8 (Cont)

*RES 1: 161.34 High May 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.17

*SUP 1: 160.98 High Dec 11 now support

*SUP 2: 160.55 Hourly resistance May 25 now support

*SUP 3: 160.29 High May 24 now support

*SUP 4: 159.84 High May 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: Finding support ahead of 21 (158.92) & 55 (158.68) DMAs last week

provided the base for a rally to fresh 4mth highs and sees M18 flirting with the

55-WMA (161.31). Bulls look for a close above Friday's high to confirm a break

and target the 162.37-48 region where the 100-WMA is found. The Bollinger top

(160.40) is the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below 160.55 to

gain breathing room and below 160.29 to target a correction back to 158.50-92.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) 131.620 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 132.700 Monthly High Dec 8 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 132.560 High Dec 13 now support (Cont) 

*RES 2: 132.240 Lows Dec 14 & 18 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 132.180 2018 High May 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.150

*SUP 1: 132.030 Hourly support May 25

*SUP 2: 131.750 High May 24 now support

*SUP 3: 131.620 High May 23 now support

*SUP 4: 131.380 Low May 24

*COMMENTARY: The recovery that began last week with support emerging ahead of

the 100-DMA (130.611) has resulted in fresh 2018 & 6mth highs with bulls now

focused on the 132.24-70 region where Dec highs are noted. The Bollinger top

(131.763) is the key concern for bulls. The 161.620 support is key this week.

Bears need a close below to ease bullish pressure and target a correction back

to 55 & 100-DMAs (130.960-131.128).

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Pressure Now On 100-WMA

*RES 4: 112.160 Weekly low Dec (Cont) now resistance 

*RES 3: 112.150 Weekly Bear channel top off 2017 high 

*RES 2: 112.115 High Dec 18 (Cont) 2018 High May 25 

*RES 1: 112.112 100-WMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.105

*SUP 1: 112.065 Alternating support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 112.050 High Mar 5 (Cont) & May 24 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.985 Low May 24 

*SUP 4: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 now support

*COMMENTARY: Gains continued Friday for the contract with focus now on

112.112/160 where the weekly bear channel top off 2017 highs and 100-WMA are

noted. Bulls need a close above 112.160 to confirm breaks and shift focus to the

double daily top at 112.360. Bears now need a close below 112.050 to gain

breathing room and below 111.985 to shift focus back to 111.870-930 where 55 &

100-DMAs and a daily bull channel base are situated.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) 122.74 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 125.17 2018 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 124.84 55-WMA 

*RES 2: 123.99 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 123.65 High May 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.32

*SUP 1: 123.03 High Apr 4 now support 

*SUP 2: 122.74 High May 24 now support 

*SUP 3: 122.32 High May 23 now support 

*SUP 4: 121.93 High May 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: Gains last week resulted in a close above the 200-WMA (122.31) and

the weekly bear channel top off Sept 2017 highs. and see bulls now focused on

the 123.99-124.84 region where the 55-WMA is located. The Bollinger top (123.08)

is the key concern for bulls. Bears now look for a close below 122.74 to ease

bullish pressure and target a correction back to 121.78-92 where 55 & 100-DMAs

are noted.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 99.345

*RES 4: 99.416 100-WMA

*RES 3: 99.398 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.385 2018 High May 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.375

*SUP 1: 99.345 Low May 23

*SUP 2: 99.335 Lows May 21 & 22

*SUP 3: 99.325 Low May 17

*SUP 4: 99.305 Lows May 14 & 15

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs lacked follow through which is less than ideal

given O/B daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band top. In saying

that, bulls currently focus on 99.416-465 where the 100-WMA and weekly bear

channel top are located. Bears now look for a close below 99.345 to gain

breathing room and below 99.325 to pressure 99.283-300 where 21 & 200-DMAs are

situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Focus Confirmed On 200-DMA

*RES 4: 100.295 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 100.293 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 100.277 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 100.275 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.270

*SUP 1: 100.265 - Repeated daily lows Mar, Low May 25

*SUP 2: 100.257 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.250 - Low Feb 26

*SUP 4: 100.234 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 100-DMA and 100.275 took their toll with an

aggressive sell-off Friday and close below key supports that see focus now on

the 100.234-248 region where the 200-DMA & WMA are located. O/S studies are the

key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above the 100-DMA to gain

breathing room and above the 55-DMA to shift focus back to 2018 highs.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Flirting With 55-DMA

*RES 4: 120-21+ Daily Bear channel top off Feb high

*RES 3: 120-13+ 100-DMA

*RES 2: 120-06+ High Apr 19

*RES 1: 120-00+ High May 25, Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 119-25+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-22+ High May 24 now support

*SUP 2: 119-09+ 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 118-31  Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 118-19+ High May17 now support

*COMMENTARY: Gains defined last week with a pop above the 55-DMA (119-30+)

Friday. Daily studies remain well placed before O/B is an issue. The 120-06+

resistance is key this week. Bulls need a close above to confirm a break of the

55-DMA and initially pressure 120-13+/21+ where the bear channel top and 100-DMA

are found. The 21-DMA is key support this week. Bears need a close below to ease

bullish pressure and below 118-31 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.030-050 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 3: 3.030 - Hourly resistance May 23 

*RES 2: 2.991 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 2.955 - Low May 24 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.935 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.906 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 3: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.831 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in closes below the 21-DMA confirming a shift in

focus to 2.876-906 where the 55-DMA is located. Correcting O/B studies added

weight to the bearish case last week. Bulls need a close above 3.030 to gain

breathing room and above 3.050 to shift immediate focus back to 3.084-155 where

2018 highs and the bull channel top are situated. Bears look for a close below

2.876 to target 2.717 Apr lows.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Focused On 3464.34-3468.95

*RES 4: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1 

*RES 3: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3566.53 Low May 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3528.12 Low May 23 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3515.36

*SUP 1: 3489.09 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3468.95 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3464.35 Low Apr 25 

*SUP 4: 3435.58 Low Apr 16

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from the failures ahead of 3600.36 is gathering

momentum with dips below the 200-DMA (3519.41). Focus remains on the

3464.35-3468.95 region where the 55-DMA is located. Bears now need a close below

3464.35 to shift initial focus to 3383.17-3399.97. Layers of resistance remain

with bulls now needing a close above 3528.12 to gain breathing room and above

3566.53 to pressure 3600.36 once more.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]