MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

30 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 163.00

*RES 4: 164.64 Weekly Bear channel top off June 2016 High

*RES 3: 164.52 Low Sept 1 now resistance

*RES 2: 164.15 2018 High May 29

*RES 1: 163.81 Hourly resistance May 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.31

*SUP 1: 163.00 Hourly support May 29

*SUP 2: 162.46 Hourly resistance May 29 now support

*SUP 3: 161.79 Low May 29

*SUP 4: 161.52 Hourly support May 28

*COMMENTARY: Aggressive gains have defined the week so far with immediate focus

currently on 164.52-64 where the weekly bear channel top off 2016 highs is

located. Being well above weekly (161.71) and daily (161.77) Bollinger tops and

extremely O/B momentum indicators hint the move is a little ahead of itself. In

saying that, bears need a close below 163.00 to gain breathing room and below

161.34 to shift focus back to 158.50-159.31 where 21 & 55-DMAs are found.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Focus Shifts To 133.480-810

*RES 4: 133.810 Low Mar 3 2017 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 3: 133.590 Low Feb 16 2017 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 2: 133.480 Monthly High Sept 5 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 133.410 2018 High May 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 133.250

*SUP 1: 133.050 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 132.470 Low May 29

*SUP 3: 132.340 Hourly support May 28

*SUP 4: 132.180 High May 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 9mth highs resulted from aggressive gains so far this

week with immediate bullish focus on 133.480-810. Bulls look for a close above

133.810 to target 134.890 2017 highs. Extremely O/B studies and the Bollinger

top indicate the move may be a little ahead of itself. In saying that, bears now

need a close below 132.470 to ease bullish pressure and below 132.180 to shift

focus back to 131.305-380 where the 21-DMA is found.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 112.220

*RES 4: 112.695 Monthly High Mar 8 2017 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.540 Monthly high Apr 18 2017 

*RES 2: 112.460 2018 High May 29 

*RES 1: 112.405 Hourly resistance May 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.345

*SUP 1: 112.335 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 112.220 Hourly support May 29 

*SUP 3: 112.160 Hourly resistance May 28 now support 

*SUP 4: 112.115 High Dec 18 (Cont) & May 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the aggressive break of 112.365 but failure

to close above and the lack of follow through is less than ideal for bulls given

O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top hinting the move is a little overdone.

In saying that, bulls currently focus on 112.540-695 last seen in Mar/Apr 2017.

Bears now look for a close below 112.220 to ease bullish pressure and below

112.115 to shift focus back to 21 & 55-DMAs 111.927-968.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) 122.67 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 125.69 Monthly High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 125.42 High Dec 27 

*RES 2: 124.67 High May 29 

*RES 1: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.38

*SUP 1: 122.81 Low May 29 

*SUP 2: 122.67 High May 28 now support 

*SUP 3: 121.86 High May 4 now support 

*SUP 4: 121.20 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Aggressive gains lacked follow through which is less than ideal for

bulls given very O/B daily studies. In saying that, bulls now focus their

attention on the 125.42-69 region where Dec highs are noted. The 122.67 support

is now key. Bears now need a close below this level to ease bullish pressure and

below 121.86 to shift focus back to 120.95-121.20 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. Bulls need a close above 123.93 to add support to their case.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 99.345

*RES 4: 99.416 100-WMA

*RES 3: 99.398 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.385 2018 High May 23 & 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.380

*SUP 1: 99.345 Low May 23

*SUP 2: 99.335 Lows May 21 & 22

*SUP 3: 99.325 Low May 17

*SUP 4: 99.305 Lows May 14 & 15

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs lacked follow through which is less than ideal

given O/B daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band top. In saying

that, bulls currently focus on 99.416-465 where the 100-WMA and weekly bear

channel top are located. Bears now look for a close below 99.345 to gain

breathing room and below 99.325 to pressure 99.282-300 where 21 & 200-DMAs are

situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bulls Need Close Above 100.225

*RES 4: 100.250 - Low Feb 26 now resistance 

*RES 3: 100.240 - Low Jan 29 now resistance 

*RES 2: 100.225 - Low Jan 12 now resistance 

*RES 1: 100.220 - Low Oct 26 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.215

*SUP 1: 100.190 - 2018 Low May 29

*SUP 2: 100.185 - Monthly Low Sept 28

*SUP 3: 100.175 - Repeated daily lows Aug

*SUP 4: 100.150 - Low Aug 7

*COMMENTARY: A sharp sell-off resulted in fresh 2018 & 8mth lows with focus now

on 100.175-185. Bears now need a close below this region to hint at a move back

to 100.065 monthly lows with below 100.150 to confirm. Layers of resistance have

been left in the wake. Bulls now need a close above 100.225 to gain breathing

room and above the 200-DMA (100.258) to shift focus back to 100.275-295 where

21, 55 & 100-DMAs are found.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 121-12 Key To Further Topside

*RES 4: 123-01+ Low Dec 21 now resistance

*RES 3: 122-22  Monthly High Feb

*RES 2: 121-12  Monthly High Apr

*RES 1: 121-03  Hourly resistance May 30

*PRICE: 120-16 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-12+ Hourly support May 29

*SUP 2: 120-01+ 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 119-21+ 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 119-11  Low May 28

*COMMENTARY: U18 traded at fresh 3mth highs in Asian trading before giving back

some ground gained overnight. Bears now need a close below the 100-DMA to ease

bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to hint at a move back to 2018 lows with

below (119-11) to confirm. Bulls currently look for a close above 121-12 to

shift immediate focus to 122-02 and overall focus to 123-23+/124-05+ where the

55-WMA is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Focused On Apr Low

*RES 4: 2.903 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 2.891 - Hourly resistance May 29a 

*RES 2: 2.838 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 2.828 - Hourly resistance May 29

*PRICE: 2.824 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 2: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2 

*SUP 3: 2.648 - Low Feb 6 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs sees the yield having broken

below the 21-WMA (2.841) and bull channel base (2.867) off 2017 lows with

immediate focus now on the 2.717 Apr low. Bulls now need a close above the

100-DMA to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to shift immediate focus

back to 2.986-3.050 where the 21-DMA (2.986) is located.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: 3547.86 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 3540.03 High May 28 

*RES 2: 3470.35 55-DMA

*RES 1: 3449.72 Hourly resistance May 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3428.14

*SUP 1: 3398.32 Low May 29 

*SUP 2: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 3373.09 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: 3313.60 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from the failures ahead of 3600.36 is now gaining

traction below the 55-DMA with immediate focus now on 3373.09-33.8317 where the

100-WMA is located. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to add weight to the

case for a test of 3261.86-3313.60 where 2018 lows and the 200-WMA are located.

Bulls now look for a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above

3566.53 to pressure 3600.36 once more.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]