MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

31 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) 161.34 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 164.15 2018 High May 29

*RES 3: 163.81 Hourly resistance May 29

*RES 2: 163.06 High May 30

*RES 1: 162.46 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.83

*SUP 1: 161.34 High May 25 now support, 55-WMA

*SUP 2: 160.29 High May 24 now support

*SUP 3: 159.84 High May 23 now support

*SUP 4: 159.45 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: With the rally this week a little overdone the contract has

corrected back to the 161.34 support. This level remains key with bears needing

a close below to shift focus back to 158.50-159.45 where 21 & 55-DMAs are

situated. Daily studies looking to correct from O/B remain a concern for bulls.

A close above 162.46 is needed to gain breathing room and above 163.06 to return

focus to 164.52-64 where the weekly bear channel top off 2016 highs is located.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) 132.18 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 133.480 Monthly High Sept 5 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 133.410 2018 High May 29 

*RES 2: 133.120 High May 30 

*RES 1: 132.820 Hourly resistance May 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.44

*SUP 1: 132.180 High May 25 now support

*SUP 2: 131.750 High May 24 now support, Low May 28

*SUP 3: 131.620 High May 23 now support

*SUP 4: 131.380 Low May 24

*COMMENTARY: The contract gave back some ground Wednesday with the move having

gotten a little ahead of itself. Correcting O/B studies are adding weight to the

case for a deeper sell-off. In saying that, bears now need a close below 132.180

to shift focus back to 131.380 where the 21-DMA is found. The 132.82-133.12

resistance is key today. Bulls now need a close above 133.12 to reconfirm focus

on 133.480-810.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 112.240-335 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 112.405 Hourly resistance May 29 

*RES 3: 112.335 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: 112.240 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 1: 112.180 Hourly support May 30 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.150

*SUP 1: 112.110 Low May 30 

*SUP 2: 112.035 Low May 28 

*SUP 3: 111.985 Low May 24 

*SUP 4: 111.981 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through and a move looking a little

overdone combined to produce a correction lower Wednesday. Correcting O/B daily

studies are adding weight to the case for a deeper sell-off and an increased

risk of a test of 111.930-985 where 21 & 55-DMAs are found. Bulls now need a

close above 112.240 to gain breathing room and above 112.335 to reconfirm focus

on 112.540-695 last seen in Mar/Apr 2017.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) 122.67 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 125.69 Monthly High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 125.42 High Dec 27 

*RES 2: 124.67 High May 29 

*RES 1: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.43

*SUP 1: 122.81 Low May 29 

*SUP 2: 122.67 High May 28 now support 

*SUP 3: 121.86 High May 4 now support 

*SUP 4: 121.32 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Aggressive gains lacked follow through Tuesday which is less than

ideal for bulls given very O/B daily studies. Bulls focus their attention on the

125.42-69 region where Dec highs are noted. The 122.67 support is now key. Bears

now need a close below this level to ease bullish pressure and below 121.86 to

shift focus back to 120.95-121.32 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bulls

need a close above 123.93 to add support to their case.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 99.370 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 99.416 100-WMA

*RES 3: 99.400 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.385 2018 High May 23 & 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.375

*SUP 1: 99.370 Lows May 28-30

*SUP 2: 99.345 Low May 23

*SUP 3: 99.335 Lows May 21 & 22

*SUP 4: 99.325 Low May 17

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs lacked follow through which is less than ideal

given O/B daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band top. In saying

that, bulls currently focus on 99.416-465 where the 100-WMA and weekly bear

channel top are located. Bears now look for a close below 99.370 to gain

breathing room and below 99.345 to pressure 99.316-325 where the 21-DMA is

situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Above 200-DMA To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: 100.284 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 100.277 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 100.259 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: 100.250 - Low Feb 26 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.240

*SUP 1: 100.215 - Low May 30

*SUP 2: 100.190 - 2018 Low May 29

*SUP 3: 100.185 - Monthly Low Sept 28

*SUP 4: 100.175 - Repeated daily lows Aug

*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading continues but as daily studies correct from O/S

bulls take comfort in the bounce back to 100.250. Bulls now look for a close

above the 200-DMA to shift focus back to 100.275-295 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are

found. While the 200-DMA caps overall focus remains on the 100.175-185 support

region with a close below 100.215 now needed to add weight to the bearish case.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 121-12  Monthly High Apr (Cont)

*RES 3: 121-03  High May 30

*RES 2: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 1: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*PRICE: 120-08 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-29  Hourly support May 29

*SUP 2: 119-21+ 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 119-11  Low May 28

*SUP 4: 119-03+ 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 3mth highs is less than ideal

for bulls given O/B daily studies. The 55-DMA is key support today with bears

needing to hint at a move back to 2018 lows with below 118-30 to confirm a break

of the 21-DMA and add weight to the case. Bulls now need a close above 121-12 to

shift immediate focus to 122-02 and overall focus to 123-23+/124-05+ where the

55-WMA is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.922 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 2.980 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 2.955 - Low May 24 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.922 - Low May 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.903 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: 2.851 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 21-WMA (2.845) & the bull channel base (2.867) off

2017 lows has lacked follow through with the close above the 100-DMA (2.842)

buying bulls breathing room. The 2.922 resistance is key today. Bulls need a

close above this level to hint at a move back to 2018 highs with above 3.014

needed to add further support. While 2.922 caps bears remain focused on Apr lows

but need a close below 2.821 to gain breathing room.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 55-DMA Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 3543.34 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 3540.03 High May 28 

*RES 2: 3470.57 55-DMA

*RES 1: 3449.72 Hourly resistance May 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3441.14

*SUP 1: 3398.32 Low May 29 

*SUP 2: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 3373.22 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: 3313.67 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from the failures ahead of 3600.36 gained traction

below the 55-DMA with immediate focus now on 3373.22-3383.67 where the 100-WMA

is located. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to add weight to the case for a

test of 3261.86-3313.60 where 2018 lows and the 200-WMA are located. Bulls now

look for a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 3566.53 to

pressure 3600.36 once more.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]