MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

22 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 164.52 Low Sept 1 now resistance

*RES 3: 164.19 2018 High May 29

*RES 2: 163.03 High May 30

*RES 1: 162.74 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.22

*SUP 1: 161.99 Hourly support June 21

*SUP 2: 161.26 Low June 21

*SUP 3: 161.01 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 160.85 Hourly resistance June 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 21-DMA provided the

impetus for a rally Thursday and close above 162.15 that sees immediate focus on

162.74-163.03 and overall focus on tests of 2018 highs and the weekly bear

channel top (164.49). The 21-DMA is key support today. Bears now need a close

below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus back to

159.37-160.22 where the 55-DMA (159.50) is situated.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) Below 131.770 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 132.970 Monthly High May 29 

*RES 3: 132.660 High May 30 

*RES 2: 132.450 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 132.370 Hourly resistance May 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.240

*SUP 1: 131.980 Hourly support June 21

*SUP 2: 131.770 High June 18 now support

*SUP 3: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*SUP 4: 131.190 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Gains resumed Thursday with the close above 132.120 confirming

focus on a move back to 132.660-970. The Bollinger top is the key concern for

bulls with potential to limit follow through. Bears continue to look for a close

below 131.77 to gain breathing room and below 131.190 to shift focus back to

130.590-875 where the 55-DMA is situated.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Bulls Now Need Close Above 112.155

*RES 4: 112.270 High May 30 

*RES 3: 112.187 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 1: 112.135 High June 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.120

*SUP 1: 112.055 Hourly support June 21 

*SUP 2: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 3: 111.940 High June 13 now support 

*SUP 4: 111.865 Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above 112.065 with a close above

112.155 remaining needed to confirm a shift in focus back to 112.270-425 where

2018 highs are noted. Support layers building adds to bullish confidence. Bears

now need a close below 112.055 to gain breathing room and below 111.940 to shift

focus back to 111.815-865 where 55 (111.855) & 100 (111.822) DMAs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Above 123.64 To Target 124.67

*RES 4: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29 

*RES 3: 123.72 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 1: 123.19 High June 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.03

*SUP 1: 122.66 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 122.28 Low June 21 

*SUP 3: 122.14 Hourly support June 14

*SUP 4: 121.68 Hourly support June 12

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 21-DMA (122.46) was aggressively reversed with

immediate pressure on the 123.19-64 resistance region. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 123.64 to initially target 124.67. Bears now need a close

below 122.66 to gain breathing room and below 122.14 to shift initial focus back

to 121.33-73 where the 55-DMA (121.54) is located. The Bollinger top is the key

concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through on a break higher.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) 100-DMA Now Key Support

*RES 4: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.210 Low June 14 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.200 Lows June 6 - 8 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.195

*SUP 1: 99.175 Low June 21

*SUP 2: 99.165 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*SUP 4: 99.133 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The failure at 99.260 this week confirmed the significance of this

level and has resulted in a break lower and a dip below the 200-DMA (99.177).

Bears now focus on the 100-DMA with a close below needed to shift focus back to

98.990-99.060 where 2018 lows are situated. Bulls now need a close above 99.210

to gain breathing room and above 99.260 to shift initial focus to 98.300 2018

highs.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 3: 100.307 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.280

*SUP 1: 100.273 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*SUP 3: 100.264 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.245 - Lows June 7 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies lingering at O/B levels is less than ideal for bulls. Bears still need a

close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA to shift

immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 119-13+ Support Now Key Today

*RES 4: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 3: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*RES 2: 120-06  High June 19

*RES 1: 119-30+ High June 20

*PRICE: 119-24+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-13+ Low June 21

*SUP 2: 119-09  Hourly resistance June 13 now support

*SUP 3: 118-29  Low June 13

*SUP 4: 118-19  High May 22 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the lack of downside follow through on the

break of 119-14+. Bears now look for a close below 119-13+ to confirm breaks of

21 (119-22+) & 55 (119-14+) DMAs, easing bullish pressure, and below 118-29+ to

shift initial focus back to 2018 lows. Bulls still need a close above 119-30+ to

gain breathing room and above 120-06 to confirm focus on 112-03/12+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.853 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 3: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 1: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21

*PRICE: 2.913 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.884 - Hourly support June 19 

*SUP 2: 2.853 - Low June 19 

*SUP 3: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to trouble key layers of resistance and in

particular 3.014 with the yield again looking offered. The 2.853 support is now

key. Bears need a close below this level to reconfirm a bearish bias and

initially target 2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted. Bulls now need a

close above 2.950 to gain breathing room and above 3.014 to end bearish hopes

and initially target 2018 highs.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 3383.17 Targets 2018 Low

*RES 4: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 3: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance

*RES 2: 3469.94 Hourly resistance June 18

*RES 1: 3410.41 Low June 19 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3403.51

*SUP 1: 3397.96 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 3389.21 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 3300.50 Low Apr 4

*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure is firmly on the 3383.17 support with daily

studies well placed for a fresh leg lower. In saying that, the Bollinger base is

a concern and limits follow through. Bears need a close below 3383.17 to confirm

a break of the channel base and 100-WMA and target 2018 lows. Bulls still need a

close above 3469.94 to gain breathing room and above 3505.02 to shift focus back

to 3540.03-3600.36.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]