MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

2 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) 21-DMA & 163.03 Levels Key This Week

*RES 4: 164.19 2018 High May 29

*RES 3: 163.08 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 163.03 High May 30

*RES 1: 162.66 High June 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.42

*SUP 1: 161.75 Low June 26

*SUP 2: 161.26 Low June 21

*SUP 3: 161.21 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 160.22 High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls remain focused on 2018 highs & the weekly bear channel top

(164.45) although topside hesitation is a concern for bulls given daily studies

correcting from O/B and the Bollinger top lurking above. Bears need a close

below 161.75 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to shift initial focus

back to 159.37-160.22 where the 55-DMA (159.84) is situated. Bulls look for a

close above 163.03 to add support to their case.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) 131.700-770 Support Confirms Significance

*RES 4: 132.660 High May 30 

*RES 3: 132.525 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 132.300 High June 28 

*RES 1: 132.200 High June 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.210

*SUP 1: 132.030 Hourly support June 29

*SUP 2: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29

*SUP 3: 131.700 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation resulted in a sharp dip Friday only to confirm

the significance of the 131.700-770 support region with an aggressive bounce.

Bulls now need a close above 132.300 to confirm focus on 132.660-970. Correcting

O/B studies look to be weighing and are the key concern for bulls. Bears

continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to hint at a move back to

130.780-131.190 with below 131.490 to confirm.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 112.055

*RES 4: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 112.147 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 112.135 High June 21 

*RES 1: 112.095 High June 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.080

*SUP 1: 112.055 Hourly support June 29 

*SUP 2: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 3: 111.940 High June 13 now support 

*SUP 4: 111.894 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation resulted in a sharp dip Friday before bouncing

aggressively ahead of 111.940-975. Correcting O/B studies and the Bollinger top

remain key concerns for bulls. Bulls continue to look for a close above 112.155

to confirm a shift in focus back to 112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted.

Bears look for a close below 112.055 to gain breathing room and below 111.940 to

shift focus back to 111.815-894 where 55 & 100 (111.850) DMAs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Below 122.28 To Target 121.19-70

*RES 4: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29 

*RES 3: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 2: 123.61 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 123.22 High June 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.06

*SUP 1: 122.91 Hourly support June 29 

*SUP 2: 122.58 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 122.55 Low June 22 

*SUP 4: 122.28 Low June 21

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the 126.64 resistance saw the pair dip back

towards the 21-DMA Friday with correcting modestly O/B studies seen weighing.

Bears continue to look for a close below 122.28 to confirms breaks of the rising

daily TL (122.45) off May lows and the 21-DMA with immediate focus shifting to

121.19-70 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bulls need a close above 123.64 to

add weight to the case for a test of 124.67.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.230

*RES 4: 99.265 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.219 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.185

*SUP 1: 99.185 Low June 27

*SUP 2: 99.184 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.169 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 21-DMA resulted in a sell-off that sees

immediate focus back on 55 & 200-DMAs. Bears look for a close below the 200-DMA

to shift immediate focus to 99.133-140 where the 100-DMA is noted. Below the

100-DMA is needed to target 98.990-99.060 where 2018 lows are situated. Bulls

needing a close above 99.230 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and hint at a move

back to 99.300 with above 99.260 to confirm.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Below 100.265 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 3: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 2: 100.304 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290

*SUP 1: 100.281 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 3: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*SUP 4: 100.245 - Lows June 7 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies correcting from O/B levels is less than ideal for bulls. Bears still

need a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to

confirm a break of the 200-DMA (100.266) & shift immediate focus back to 100.245

and overall focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 119-26+/120-02 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 121-12  Monthly High June

*RES 3: 121-03  High May 30

*RES 2: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 1: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*PRICE: 120-04 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-02  Hourly support June 27, Low June 29

*SUP 2: 119-26+ Low June 26

*SUP 3: 119-20+ Low June 22

*SUP 4: 119-13+ Low June 21, 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The rally from 119-13+ continued last week only to fail at the

120-16 resistance. Bulls currently focus on 121-03/12 where May highs are

located but now need a close above 120-16 to add support to their case. Daily

studies looking to correct from modestly O/B is a concern for bulls. Bears

continue to look for a close below 120-02 to ease bullish pressure and below

119-26+ to shift initial focus back to 119-13+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.873-950 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 3: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21

*RES 2: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 1: 2.873 - Hourly resistance June 27

*PRICE: 2.860 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures around 2.950 saw pressure return to the 2.853

support resulting in a close below Wednesday that sees bears focused on

2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are noted. The Bollinger base (2.828) is the key

concern for bears and currently supports. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 2.873 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to pressure the key 3.014-050

resistance region.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Above 3424.60 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 3: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance

*RES 2: 3469.94 Hourly resistance June 18

*RES 1: 3424.60 High June 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3395.60

*SUP 1: 3389.44 Low June 29 

*SUP 2: 3340.50 Low June 27 

*SUP 3: 3320.97 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: 3300.50 Low Apr 4

*COMMENTARY: Bulls now need a close above 3424.60 to ease bearish pressure and

above 3469.94 to shift immediate focus back to 3492.96-3540.03 where 55 &

200-DMAs are noted. While 3469.94 caps bears retain the upper hand and focus on

3261.86-3320.97 where the 200-WMA is situated. The Bollinger base (3355.66) and

O/S studies are key concerns for bears and limit follow through.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]