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Free AccessMNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis
5 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 162.22
*RES 4: 164.19 2018 High May 29
*RES 3: 163.52 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 163.03 High May 30
*RES 1: 162.81 High July 3
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.44
*SUP 1: 162.22 Low July 3
*SUP 2: 161.75 Low June 26
*SUP 3: 161.41 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 161.26 Low June 21
*COMMENTARY: Failures ahead of the 163.03 resistance remain a concern for bulls
when combined with daily momentum divergence, O/B studies looking to correct and
the Bollinger top lurking above. In saying that, bears still need a close below
162.22 to gain breathing room and below 161.26 to shift initial focus back to
159.37-160.22 where the 55-DMA (160.04) is situated. Bulls look for a close
above 163.03 to add support to the case for a test of 164.19-42.
BOBL TECHS: (U18) Focus On 131.770-780 Today
*RES 4: 132.669 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 132.660 High May 30
*RES 2: 132.330 High July 2
*RES 1: 132.090 Low July 3
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.020
*SUP 1: 131.780 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29
*SUP 3: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support
*SUP 4: 131.190 High June 13 now support
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation resulted in a sharp dip Friday only to confirm
the significance of the 131.770-780 support region with an aggressive bounce.
Bulls now need a close above 132.330 to confirm focus on 132.660-970. Correcting
O/B studies look to be weighing and are the key concern for bulls. The close
below 132.090 buys bears breathing room with below 131.770 to target
130.780-131.190.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Above 112.155 To Shift Focus Higher
*RES 4: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30
*RES 3: 112.135 High June 21
*RES 2: 112.075 Hourly support July 4 now resistance
*RES 1: 112.055 Hourly support June 29 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.030
*SUP 1: 112.021 Daily bull channel base off June low
*SUP 2: 111.975 Hourly support June 14
*SUP 3: 111.940 High June 13 now support
*SUP 4: 111.914 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the close below 112.055 although the contract
is finding support around a bull channel base. Bulls now need a close above
112.075 to gain breathing room and above 112.155 to confirm a shift in focus
back to 112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted. The 111.940 support remains key.
Bears need a close below this level to shift focus back to 111.815-914 where 55
& 100 (111.863) DMAs are noted.
GILT TECHS: (U18) 123.64 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29
*RES 3: 123.78 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 123.64 High May 30
*RES 1: 123.49 High July 3
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.09
*SUP 1: 122.90 Low July 3
*SUP 2: 122.64 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 122.55 Low June 22
*SUP 4: 122.28 Low June 21
*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the 126.64 resistance saw the pair dip back
towards the 21-DMA Friday with correcting modestly O/B studies seen weighing.
Bears continue to look for a close below 122.28 to confirms breaks of the rising
daily TL (122.69) off May lows and the 21-DMA with immediate focus shifting to
121.22-82 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bulls still need a close above
123.64 to add support to the case for a test of 124.67.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Above 99.230 To Confirm 21-DMA Break
*RES 4: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance
*RES 3: 99.211 21-DMA
*RES 2: 99.193 55-DMA
*RES 1: 99.185 Low June 27
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.175
*SUP 1: 99.168 200-DMA, Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: 99.147 Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 3: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3
*SUP 4: 99.134 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure is now on the 200-DMA with bears needing a close
below to shift initial focus to 99.134-147 where the 100-DMA is noted. The
Bollinger base and studies approaching O/S are the key concern for bears. Bulls
now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 99.230 to
shift focus back to 99.260. Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-DMA
to target 2018 lows.
EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Below 100.265 To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May
*RES 3: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance
*RES 2: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15
*RES 1: 100.290 - Repeated daily highs June & July
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.285
*SUP 1: 100.283 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25
*SUP 3: 100.265 - High June 11 now support
*SUP 4: 100.245 - Lows June 7 & 8
*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above
this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily
studies correcting from O/B levels is less than ideal for bulls. Bears still
need a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to
confirm a break of the 200-DMA (100.268) & shift immediate focus back to 100.245
and overall focus back to 2018 lows.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 120-16 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 121-03 High May 30
*RES 3: 120-24 Hourly resistance May 30a
*RES 2: 120-16 Hourly resistance May 30
*RES 1: 120-12+ Falling Tl Off May high
*PRICE: 120-07+ @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 120-06 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 2: 119-30 Low July 3
*SUP 3: 119-26+ Low June 26
*SUP 4: 119-20+ Low June 22
*COMMENTARY: The 120-16 resistance remains key this week with bulls needing a
close above to confirm focus on 121-03/12. The Bollinger top (120-15+) and
modestly O/B studies remain key concerns for bulls and limit follow through.
Initial support is noted at 120-06 with bears needing a close below to ease
bullish pressure and below 119-26+ to shift initial focus back to 119-13+ where
the 55-DMA is located.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Now Key
*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21
*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26
*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3
*RES 1: 2.855 - Hourly support July 2 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.846 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30
*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a
*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29
*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2
*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure remains on the 2.821 support with overall
bearish focus currently on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are noted. The
Bollinger base (2.812) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern for bears.
Bulls continue now look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above
2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050
resistance region.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3424.60-3469.94 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance
*RES 3: 3488.97 55-DMA
*RES 2: 3469.94 Hourly resistance June 18
*RES 1: 3424.60 High June 27
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3412.03
*SUP 1: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 2: 3340.50 Low June 27
*SUP 3: 3321.80 200-WMA
*SUP 4: 3300.50 Low Apr 4
*COMMENTARY: Bulls still need a close above 3424.60 to ease bearish pressure and
above 3469.94 to shift immediate focus back to 3490.41-3540.03 where 55 &
200-DMAs are noted. While 3469.94 caps bears retain the upper hand and focus on
3261.86-3320.97 where the 200-WMA is situated. The Bollinger base (3341.84) and
O/S studies remain concerns for bears and limit follow through.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.