MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

16 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Below 162.26 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 164.52 Low Sept 1 now resistance

*RES 3: 164.19 2018 High May 29

*RES 2: 163.32 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 163.22 High July 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.95

*SUP 1: 162.82 High July 12 now support

*SUP 2: 162.40 Low July 11

*SUP 3: 162.28 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 162.26 Low July 10

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 6-week highs to end the week add support to the case for a

test of the 164.19-54 region where 2018 highs and the weekly bear channel top

off 2016 highs is located. Bulls need a close above the bear channel top to

shift focus to 166.40 2017 highs. Bears now need a close below 162.82 to gain

breathing room and below 162.26 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift

initial focus to 161.26-75.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) Above 132.330 To Target 132.660-970

*RES 4: 132.660 High May 30 

*RES 3: 132.401 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 132.330 High July 2 

*RES 1: 132.260 Hourly support July 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.200

*SUP 1: 132.180 High July 11 now support

*SUP 2: 132.000 Low July 10

*SUP 3: 131.890 Low July 5

*SUP 4: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29

*COMMENTARY: The 132.330 resistance confirmed significance Friday capping the

rally and seeing immediate pressure back on 132.180. Bears now need a close

below 132.180 to ease pressure on 132.330 and below 132.000 to shift focus to

the key 131.770 support. Bulls continue to look for a close above 132.330 to

reconfirm a bullish bias and initially target 132.660-970. The Bollinger top is

now the key concern for bulls.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) 111.940-975 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 112.138 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 112.135 High June 21 

*RES 1: 112.085 Lows July 2 & 3 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.030

*SUP 1: 112.027 Rising daily TL off May low 

*SUP 2: 112.000 Low July 5 

*SUP 3: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 4: 111.940 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on past week's dips with support

emerging ahead of 111.975. 111.940 remains key support. Bears need a close below

111.975 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below 111.940 to shift

initial focus to 111.815-887 where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 112.085 to gain breathing room and above 112.155 to

confirm a shift in focus back to 112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) 123.64 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 3: 123.52 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 123.49 High July 3 

*RES 1: 123.38 Hourly support July 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.20

*SUP 1: 122.76 Low July 9 

*SUP 2: 122.55 Low June 22 

*SUP 3: 122.28 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: 122.15 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: U18 remains capped by 123.49-64 with dips supported at 122.76.

Bears need a close below 122.76 to confirm traction below the rising daily TL

off May lows and the 21-DMA (123.04) with immediate focus shifting to 122.15-28

where the 55-DMA is noted. Below the 55-DMA is needed to shift focus to

121.33-73 where the 100-DMA is situated. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 123.64 to reconfirm overall focus on 124.67.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) 55 & 100-DMAs Key

*RES 4: 99.220 High June 28

*RES 3: 99.211 Daily Bear channel top off May 30 high

*RES 2: 99.206 55-DMA

*RES 1: 99.193 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.165

*SUP 1: 99.150 Low July 5

*SUP 2: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*SUP 3: 99.139 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 99.138 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of the 21 & 55-DMAs with

immediate focus on the 100-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the

100-DMA to shift initial focus back to 99.060 and overall focus back to

98.990-000 where 2018 lows are noted. Bulls now need a close above 21 & 55-DMAs

to gain breathing room and above 99.230 to confirm a break of the bear channel

top and shift immediate focus back to 99.260.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100.300-305 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 3: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 2: 100.304 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15, Repeated highs July

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.291 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.286 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bears need a close

below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a break

of the 200-DMA (100.270), shifting immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall

focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 120-13/20 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 3: 120-20  High July 6

*RES 2: 120-18+ Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 120-13  Hourly resistance June 12

*PRICE: 120-11+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-02+ 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 119-30  Low July 3

*SUP 3: 119-26+ Low June 26

*SUP 4: 119-17+ 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

21-DMA (120-02+) last week. Bears need a close below 119-26+ to confirm traction

below the 21-DMA and pressure 119-13+/17+ where the 55-DMA is found. The

120-13/20 resistance region remains key. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 120-13 to gain breathing room and above 120-20 to confirm focus on the key

121-03/12 region.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 1: 2.875 - High July 10

*PRICE: 2.829 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.825 - Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 2: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are

noted with a close below 2.807 to add weight to their case. The Bollinger base

(2.803) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern for bears and limit follow

through. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room

and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key

3.014-050 resistance region.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3418.06 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 3501.89 55-WMA

*RES 3: 3482.25 55-DMA

*RES 2: 3480.44 High July 10

*RES 1: 3466.26 High July 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3454.54

*SUP 1: 3418.06 Low July 12 

*SUP 2: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 3342.46 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 3340.50 Low June 27

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from June lows stalled ahead of the 55-DMA with

correcting O/B studies increasing the risk of a correction back to the 200-WMA

(3323.08). Bears now need a close below 3418.06 to shift initial focus back to

3340.50 June lows. Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing

room and above the 200-DMA (3512.43) to hint at a move back to 2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]