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MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis 

26 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (U18) 162.70 Resistance Key
*RES 4: 162.70 Low July 19 now resistance
*RES 3: 162.60 21-DMA
*RES 2: 162.47 High July 25
*RES 1: 162.21 Hourly support July 25 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.02
*SUP 1: 161.75 Low July 11
*SUP 2: 161.26 Low June 21
*SUP 3: 161.21 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 160.22 High June 13 now support
*COMMENTARY: The 161.75 support confirmed significance with a bounce from ahead
of this level Tuesday. Bears continue to look for a close below 161.75 to shift
initial focus back to 161.21-26 where the 55-DMA is noted. Below the 55-DMA is
needed to target 159.37-160.22 with the 100-DMA at 159.88 The 162.70 resistance
remains key. Bulls still need a close above 162.70 to regain the upper hand and
shift focus back to 163.39-164.19.
BOBL TECHS: (U18) Above 21-DMA To Shift Focus Higher
*RES 4: 132.111 21-DMA 
*RES 3: 132.040 High July 23 
*RES 2: 132.000 High July 25 
*RES 1: 131.880 Hourly support July 25 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.790
*SUP 1: 131.740 Low July 25
*SUP 2: 131.627 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 131.500 Low June 15
*SUP 4: 131.191 High June 13 now support
*COMMENTARY: The contract remains heavy having broken 131.770 although follow
through has been lacking. Bears now focus on the break of 131.500 needed to
confirm traction below the 55-DMA and initially target 131.191. Initial
resistance is now noted at 131.880. Bulls need a close above this level to gain
breathing room and above the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 132.290-330. Above
132.330 remains needed to shift focus to 132.660-970.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 111.940
*RES 4: 112.085 Lows July 2 & 3 now resistance 
*RES 3: 112.038 21-DMA 
*RES 2: 112.010 High July 23 
*RES 1: 111.990 55-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.940
*SUP 1: 111.940 High June 13 now support 
*SUP 2: 111.886 100-DMA 
*SUP 3: 111.865 Monthly Low June 14 
*SUP 4: 111.815 Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the key 111.940 support with the pair remaining
capped around the 55-DMA Wednesday. Bulls continue to look for a close above
112.010 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to
112.038-085 where the 21-DMA is situated. Bears still need a close below 111.940
to shift initial focus to 111.865-886 where the 100-DMA is located.
     GILT TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 123.41
*RES 4: 124.67 High May 29 
*RES 3: 124.27 High July 20 
*RES 2: 123.84 Hourly support July 19 now resistance 
*RES 1: 123.41 Hourly resistance July 23
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.30
*SUP 1: 123.10 Hourly support July 24 
*SUP 2: 122.94 Low July 24 
*SUP 3: 122.76 Low July 9 
*SUP 4: 122.55 Low June 22
*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on the break of the rising
TL off May lows with U18 recovering from its lows Tuesday. Layers of support
remain 122.28-94 with bears needing a close below 122.28 to end bullish hopes
and shift initial focus to 121.73-83 where the 100-DMA is noted. Bulls continue
to look for a close above 123.41 to gain breathing room and above 123.84 to
focus on 124.27-67.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA
*RES 4: 99.207 55-DMA
*RES 3: 99.189 Daily Bear channel top off May 30 high
*RES 2: 99.167 200-DMA
*RES 1: 99.150 Lows July 5 & 23 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.140
*SUP 1: 99.130 Low July 24
*SUP 2: 99.090 High Apr 26 now support
*SUP 3: 99.060 Low Apr 24
*SUP 4: 99.030 Low Apr 18
*COMMENTARY: The break of 99.140 has lacked follow through although bears take
comfort in the marginal closes below the 100-DMA. Focus has now shifted to
99.060-090. Initial resistance is now noted at 99.150. Bulls now need a close
above this level to gain breathing room and above the 200-DMA to shift focus
back to the 55-DMA. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower before
O/S is an issue.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 
*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 
*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15, Repeated highs July
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300
*SUP 1: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows July
*SUP 2: 100.285 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25
*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support
*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls still need a close
above this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily
studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bears still need a
close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a
break of the 200-DMA (100.274), shifting immediate focus back to 100.245 and
overall focus back to 2018 lows.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bears Now Need Close Below 118-29+
*RES 4: 120-06+ Hourly support July 20 now resistance
*RES 3: 119-30  Hourly support July 23 now resistance
*RES 2: 119-26+ Alternating Daily support/resistance
*RES 1: 119-22  High July 25
*PRICE: 119-13 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 119-06  Low June 14
*SUP 2: 118-29+ Monthly Low June 13
*SUP 3: 118-19  High May 22 now support
*SUP 4: 118-09  Low May 21
*COMMENTARY: The marginal pop above the 55-DMA (119-20+) was rejected ahead of
the 119-26+/30 region and remains offered with immediate focus now on
118-29+/119-06. Bears look for a close below 118-29+ to add weight to the case
for a test of May lows (117-30). Bulls now need a close above 119-30 to shift
focus back to the key 120-13+/20 resistance region.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 55-DMA Confirms Significance
*RES 4: 3.084 - High May 21 
*RES 3: 3.050 - Low May 22 
*RES 2: 3.014 - High May 24 
*RES 1: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13
*PRICE: 2.969 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.949 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.923 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: 2.902 - Hourly resistance July 23 now support 
*SUP 4: 2.880 - Hourly support July 20
*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA confirmed significance with an aggressive bounce from
ahead of this level Wednesday reconfirming bullish focus on 3.014-084. Bulls
need a close above 3.084 to confirm initial focus on 3.128-223 where 2018 highs
are noted. Bears still need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and
below 2.880 to shift initial focus back to 2.807.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA
*RES 4: 3540.64 High June 15
*RES 3: 3506.89 200-DMA
*RES 2: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance
*RES 1: 3502.31 55-WMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3468.45
*SUP 1: 3460.00 Low July 25 
*SUP 2: 3439.21 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: 3418.06 Low July 12 
*SUP 4: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalize on bounces from the 21-DMA
with the pair hesitating ahead of key MAs. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA
to add support to the case for a test of 2018 highs with immediate focus
shifting to 3540.03-3566.63 where the weekly bear channel top of 2018 highs are
noted. Bears now need a close below 3560.00 to gain breathing room and below
3418.06 to target June lows.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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