MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

26 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) 162.70 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 162.70 Low July 19 now resistance

*RES 3: 162.60 21-DMA

*RES 2: 162.47 High July 25

*RES 1: 162.21 Hourly support July 25 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.02

*SUP 1: 161.75 Low July 11

*SUP 2: 161.26 Low June 21

*SUP 3: 161.21 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 160.22 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 161.75 support confirmed significance with a bounce from ahead

of this level Tuesday. Bears continue to look for a close below 161.75 to shift

initial focus back to 161.21-26 where the 55-DMA is noted. Below the 55-DMA is

needed to target 159.37-160.22 with the 100-DMA at 159.88 The 162.70 resistance

remains key. Bulls still need a close above 162.70 to regain the upper hand and

shift focus back to 163.39-164.19.

BOBL TECHS: (U18) Above 21-DMA To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: 132.111 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 132.040 High July 23 

*RES 2: 132.000 High July 25 

*RES 1: 131.880 Hourly support July 25 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.790

*SUP 1: 131.740 Low July 25

*SUP 2: 131.627 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 131.500 Low June 15

*SUP 4: 131.191 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains heavy having broken 131.770 although follow

through has been lacking. Bears now focus on the break of 131.500 needed to

confirm traction below the 55-DMA and initially target 131.191. Initial

resistance is now noted at 131.880. Bulls need a close above this level to gain

breathing room and above the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 132.290-330. Above

132.330 remains needed to shift focus to 132.660-970.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 111.940

*RES 4: 112.085 Lows July 2 & 3 now resistance 

*RES 3: 112.038 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.010 High July 23 

*RES 1: 111.990 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.940

*SUP 1: 111.940 High June 13 now support 

*SUP 2: 111.886 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: 111.865 Monthly Low June 14 

*SUP 4: 111.815 Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the key 111.940 support with the pair remaining

capped around the 55-DMA Wednesday. Bulls continue to look for a close above

112.010 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to

112.038-085 where the 21-DMA is situated. Bears still need a close below 111.940

to shift initial focus to 111.865-886 where the 100-DMA is located.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 123.41

*RES 4: 124.67 High May 29 

*RES 3: 124.27 High July 20 

*RES 2: 123.84 Hourly support July 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: 123.41 Hourly resistance July 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.30

*SUP 1: 123.10 Hourly support July 24 

*SUP 2: 122.94 Low July 24 

*SUP 3: 122.76 Low July 9 

*SUP 4: 122.55 Low June 22

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on the break of the rising

TL off May lows with U18 recovering from its lows Tuesday. Layers of support

remain 122.28-94 with bears needing a close below 122.28 to end bullish hopes

and shift initial focus to 121.73-83 where the 100-DMA is noted. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 123.41 to gain breathing room and above 123.84 to

focus on 124.27-67.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: 99.207 55-DMA

*RES 3: 99.189 Daily Bear channel top off May 30 high

*RES 2: 99.167 200-DMA

*RES 1: 99.150 Lows July 5 & 23 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.140

*SUP 1: 99.130 Low July 24

*SUP 2: 99.090 High Apr 26 now support

*SUP 3: 99.060 Low Apr 24

*SUP 4: 99.030 Low Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: The break of 99.140 has lacked follow through although bears take

comfort in the marginal closes below the 100-DMA. Focus has now shifted to

99.060-090. Initial resistance is now noted at 99.150. Bulls now need a close

above this level to gain breathing room and above the 200-DMA to shift focus

back to the 55-DMA. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower before

O/S is an issue.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15, Repeated highs July

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows July

*SUP 2: 100.285 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls still need a close

above this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bears still need a

close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a

break of the 200-DMA (100.274), shifting immediate focus back to 100.245 and

overall focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bears Now Need Close Below 118-29+

*RES 4: 120-06+ Hourly support July 20 now resistance

*RES 3: 119-30  Hourly support July 23 now resistance

*RES 2: 119-26+ Alternating Daily support/resistance

*RES 1: 119-22  High July 25

*PRICE: 119-13 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-06  Low June 14

*SUP 2: 118-29+ Monthly Low June 13

*SUP 3: 118-19  High May 22 now support

*SUP 4: 118-09  Low May 21

*COMMENTARY: The marginal pop above the 55-DMA (119-20+) was rejected ahead of

the 119-26+/30 region and remains offered with immediate focus now on

118-29+/119-06. Bears look for a close below 118-29+ to add weight to the case

for a test of May lows (117-30). Bulls now need a close above 119-30 to shift

focus back to the key 120-13+/20 resistance region.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 55-DMA Confirms Significance

*RES 4: 3.084 - High May 21 

*RES 3: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 2: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 1: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13

*PRICE: 2.969 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.949 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.923 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.902 - Hourly resistance July 23 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.880 - Hourly support July 20

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA confirmed significance with an aggressive bounce from

ahead of this level Wednesday reconfirming bullish focus on 3.014-084. Bulls

need a close above 3.084 to confirm initial focus on 3.128-223 where 2018 highs

are noted. Bears still need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and

below 2.880 to shift initial focus back to 2.807.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 3: 3506.89 200-DMA

*RES 2: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance

*RES 1: 3502.31 55-WMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3468.45

*SUP 1: 3460.00 Low July 25 

*SUP 2: 3439.21 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3418.06 Low July 12 

*SUP 4: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalize on bounces from the 21-DMA

with the pair hesitating ahead of key MAs. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA

to add support to the case for a test of 2018 highs with immediate focus

shifting to 3540.03-3566.63 where the weekly bear channel top of 2018 highs are

noted. Bears now need a close below 3560.00 to gain breathing room and below

3418.06 to target June lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]