MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

27 July 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Initial Focus On Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014 

*RES 3: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1870 High Jan 12 2015 

*RES 1: $1.1792 Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: $1.1758 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1717 Hourly support July 27 

*SUP 2: $1.1701 Hourly support July 26 

*SUP 3: $1.1654 Hourly resistance July 26 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1611 Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: The dip back into the $1.1583-1.1617 region found support Wednesday

with the rally continuing to trade at fresh 2017 and 30mth highs and bulls

initially focused on the bull channel top and then the $1.1870 resistance above.

Layers of support are accumulating with bears now needing a close below $1.1701

to gain breathing room and below $1.1654 to shift focus back to the

$1.1583-1.1611 support region.

CABLE TECHS: Overall Focus On $1.3445-80

*RES 4: $1.3480 Monthly High July 15 2016 

*RES 3: $1.3445 Monthly High Sept 6 

*RES 2: $1.3278 High Sept 19 

*RES 1: $1.3188 Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: $1.3144 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3125 High July 18 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3090 Hourly support July 26 

*SUP 3: $1.3083 High July 25 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3030 Hourly support July 26

*COMMENTARY: The pair has continued to find support on dips back towards the

21-DMA ($1.2985) resulting in fresh 2017 and 10mth highs with immediate bullish

focus on the daily bull channel top and overall focus on the $1.3445-80 region.

O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top ($1.3145) are key concerns for bulls.

Bears now need a close below $1.3083 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus

back to the 21-DMA.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y110.34

*RES 4: Y112.52 21-DMA 

*RES 3: Y112.18 High July 26 

*RES 2: Y111.70 Hourly support July 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y111.32 Hourly resistance July 26

*PRICE: Y110.91 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.62 Low June 16 

*SUP 2: Y110.60 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y110.34 High June 14 now support 

*SUP 4: Y109.25 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: Focus has returned to Y110.34-62 following the rejection above the

200-DMA (Y112.10) Wednesday. The pair is again looking heavy with bears looking

for a close below Y110.34 to confirm a shift in focus to Y108.81-109.25. O/S

studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bears. In saying that,

bulls now need a close above Y111.32 to gain breathing room and above Y111.70 to

shift focus to Y112.18-87 where the 21-DMA is located.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.75 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y132.23 2016 High Jan 29 2016 

*RES 3: Y131.64 High Feb 4 2016 

*RES 2: Y130.75 2017 High July 11 

*RES 1: Y130.57 High July 25

*PRICE: Y130.45 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.90 Hourly resistance July 25 now support

*SUP 2: Y129.60 Hourly resistance July 25 now support A 

*SUP 3: Y129.40 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.76 Low July 20

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA continues to support on dips and pressure has returned

to 2017 highs with bulls needing a close above to reconfirm the bullish bias and

shift initial focus to Y131.64-132.23 where 2016 highs are located. Support

layers are again building with bears now needing a close below Y129.90 to shift

focus back to the 21-DMA and below Y128.48 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

shift immediate focus back to Y127.42-72 where the bull channel base is located.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8898 & Gbp0.8961 Levels Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.9068 High Oct 13

*RES 3: Gbp0.9025 High Nov 9

*RES 2: Gbp0.8994 2017 High July 21

*RES 1: Gbp0.8961 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8945 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8898 High July 18 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8867 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8852 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8826 Low July 19

*COMMENTARY: The break below Gbp0.8919 lacked follow through Wednesday with the

pair bouncing from ahead of the key Gbp0.8898 support. Pressure has returned to

the Gbp0.8961 resistance with bulls needing a close above to add support to

their case and initially target Gbp0.8994-0.9025, Bears continue to look for a

close below Gbp0.8898 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift focus

back to Gbp0.8826-52 where the 21-DMA is situated.

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Focused On $0.8163

*RES 4: $0.8375 - High Dec 11 2014 

*RES 3: $0.8295 - 2015 High Jan 15 

*RES 2: $0.8163 - Monthly High May 14 2015 

*RES 1: $0.8087 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $0.8060 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.8030 - Hourly support July 27 

*SUP 2: $0.8013 - High July 26 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7970 - High July 25 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7941 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: The $0.7874 support confirmed significance, supporting on the most

recent pullback from $0.7970 and providing the base for a move gaining traction

above the 200-WMA ($0.8009). Bulls now focus to $0.8163 with overall focus on

2015 highs following fresh 2017 and 26mth highs. Bears look for a close below

$0.8013 to gain breathing room and below $0.7970 to shift focus back to the key

$0.7874 support. Below $0.7838 remains needed to shift focus lower.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Overall Focus On 91.919-92.266

*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 3: 94.047 - Hourly support July 26 now resistance 

*RES 2: 93.669 - Hourly resistance July 26 

*RES 1: 93.373 - Hourly support July 27 now resistance

*PRICE: 93.284 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.019 - Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 2: 92.266 - 200-WMA

*SUP 3: 91.919 - 2016 Low May 3 2016

*SUP 4: 91.514 - Low Jan 15 2015

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to trouble the key 94.357-602 resistance region with

the sell-off reconfirming the bearish bias with fresh 2017 and 13mth lows. Bears

now focus on the 93.019 June 2016 low with overall focus now on 91.919-92.267

where the 200-WMA and 2016 lows are situated. Layers of resistance are building

with bulls now needing a close above 93.669 to gain breathing room and above

94.047 to shift focus back to 94.357-602.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.229 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.366 - High July 13

*RES 3: 2.363 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14

*RES 1: 2.312 - 100-DMA, Hourly support July 26 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.278 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.254 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.241 - Hourly support July 24 

*SUP 3: 2.229 - Low July 21, Low July 24 

*SUP 4: 2.177 - High June 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bounce from 2.229 with the

sell-off Wednesday leaving the yield looking heavy and focus back on the 2.229

support. Bears continue to look for a close below 2.229 to confirm focus on

tests of 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are again building with bulls needing a

close above 2.312 to gain breathing room and above 2.337 to see pressure back to

2.363-396.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U17) Flirting With 100-DMA 

*RES 4: $51.02 - High May 30 

*RES 3: $50.70 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: $49.55 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $48.87 - High July 26

*PRICE: $48.68 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $48.44 - Hourly support July 25 

*SUP 2: $47.86 - Low July 26 

*SUP 3: $47.43 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support A 

*SUP 4: $47.06 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from a dip below the 21-DMA ($46.50) to start the new

week now sees the contract flirting with the 100-DMA ($48.64). Bulls look for a

close above $48.87 to initially target the daily bull channel top with overall

focus on layers of resistance $50.70-51.32 where the 200-DMA and daily bear

channel top are located. bears now need a close below $47.86 to shift focus back

to the 55-DMA.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1242.4-1252.7 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 3: $1280.8 - High June 14 

*RES 2: $1266.5 - High June 15 

*RES 1: $1266.0 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1264.1 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1258.8 - High June 23 now support 

*SUP 2: $1252.7 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $1242.4 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: $1235.2 - Hourly support July 18

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the dip with the gold finding support

ahead of $1242.4 and resulting in a close above the $1258.8 resistance that sees

immediate focus ton $1280.8 and overall focus on tests of 2017 highs. The

Bollinger top is the key concern and currently caps. Layers of support are

building with bears now needing a close below $1252.7 to ease bullish pressure

and below $1242.4 to shift focus lower.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]