MNI SNB WATCH: Rate Cut On Knife-Edge As Disinflation Stalls

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, June 18

MNI BRIEF: More Steps Needed On Integragted Finc'l Sevices-ECB

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY84 Bln Via OMO Tues; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY86 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS TUES

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1148 Tues; -1.35% Y/Y

MNI: US REDBOOK: JUN STORE SALES +5.7% V YR AGO MO

US MAY RETAIL SALES $703.1B VS APR $702.5B

MNI:US MAY RETAIL SALES +0.1%; EX-MOTOR VEH -0.1%

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis 

1 August 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On $1.1870
*RES 4: $1.2352 High Dec 18 2014 
*RES 3: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014 
*RES 2: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 2 
*RES 1: $1.1870 High Jan 12 2015
*PRICE: $1.1827 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1806 Hourly support July 31 
*SUP 2: $1.1763 Hourly resistance July 31 now support 
*SUP 3: $1.1723 Low July 31 
*SUP 4: $1.1704 Hourly support July 28
*COMMENTARY: Gains Monday see immediate focus on the $1.1870 resistance with the
Bollinger top ($1.1860) and O/B daily studies seen as concerns for bulls. The
pair closed above the 200-WMA ($1.1788) which adds support to the bullish case
with bulls now looking for a weekly close above this level. Bears now need a
close below $1.1763 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below $1.1704 to
shift focus back to $1.1611-48.
CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.5157
*RES 4: $1.3539 100-WMA 
*RES 3: $1.3445 Monthly High Sept 6 
*RES 2: $1.3278 High Sept 19 
*RES 1: $1.3223 2017 High July 31
*PRICE: $1.3212 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3191 Hourly support Aug 1 
*SUP 2: $1.3157 High July 27 Now support 
*SUP 3: $1.3135 Hourly resistance July 31 now support 
*SUP 4: $1.3094 Low July 31
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on $1.3157 took its toll with a break higher and bullish
close that sees bulls now initially focused on $1.3278 and then $1.3445-1.3539
where monthly highs and the 100-WMA are located. Layers of support are building
with bears now needing a close below $1.3157 to ease bullish pressure and below
$1.3094 to shift focus back to $1.3004-10 where the 21-DMA is located. The
Bollinger top ($1.3215) is the key concern for bulls.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y110.85 To Gain Breathing Room
*RES 4: Y111.70 Hourly support July 26 now resistance 
*RES 3: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27 
*RES 2: Y110.85 Hourly resistance July 28 
*RES 1: Y110.47 Hourly resistance July 31
*PRICE: Y110.16 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.83 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 2: Y109.70 55-WMA 
*SUP 3: Y109.25 Low June 15 
*SUP 4: Y108.69 Monthly Low June 14
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on Y110.34 took its toll with the pair remaining heavy and
bears focused on Y108.69-109.70 where the 55-WMA and monthly lows are situated.
Layers of resistance are building with bulls needing a close above Y110.85 to
gain breathing room and hint at a bounce back to layers of resistance
Y111.39-112.87 where DMAs are located. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base
remain key concerns for bears with potential to limit follow through.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of Y130.75
*RES 4: Y130.87 Bollinger band top 
*RES 3: Y130.75 2017 High July 11 
*RES 2: Y130.59 High July 31 
*RES 1: Y130.38 Hourly support Aug 1 now resistance
*PRICE: Y130.24 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.09 Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*SUP 2: Y129.62 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: Y128.76 Low July 20 
*SUP 4: Y128.48 Low July 13
*COMMENTARY: Yet another topside failure ahead of Y130.75 sees focus back on the
21-DMA that supported on dips last week. Bears look for a close below the 21-DMA
to see pressure back on the Y128.48 support and below this level to hint at a
move back to the 55-DMA (Y126.61). Initial resistance is now noted at Y130.38
with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and retain focus on
Y130.75. Above Y130.75 targets Y131.64-132.23.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8928
*RES 4: Gbp0.9068 High Oct 13
*RES 3: Gbp0.9025 High Nov 9
*RES 2: Gbp0.8994 2017 High July 21
*RES 1: Gbp0.8975 High July 31
*PRICE: Gbp0.8947 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8928 Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8890 Low July 27 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8876 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8867 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the lack of follow through on the break below
$0.8898 last week but now look for a close above $0.8975 to pressure 2017 highs
and then the Gbp0.9025-68 region above. The Gbp0.8928 support remains key with
bears needing a close below to shift focus back to Gbp0.8876-90 where the 21-DMA
is located. Daily studies looking to correct from O/B remain the key concern for
bulls.
AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7992
*RES 4: $0.8295 - 2015 High Jan 15 
*RES 3: $0.8163 - Monthly High May 14 2015 
*RES 2: $0.8144 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27
*PRICE: $0.8033 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.8005 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support 
*SUP 2: $0.7992 - Hourly resistance July 31 now support 
*SUP 3: $0.7934 - Low July 28 
*SUP 4: $0.7905 - Hourly support July 25
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have regained the upper hand with the break back above
$0.8018 that sees immediate pressure back on 2017 highs. The 200-WMA comes in at
$0.8002 with a weekly close above needed to add support to the bullish case for
a move back to $0.8163-0.8295. O/B studies remain the key concern for bulls.
Bears now need a close below $0.7992 to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7934
to shift focus back to $0.7838-74.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 200-WMA In The Sights
*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26 
*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27 
*RES 2: 93.650 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*RES 1: 93.161 - Hourly resistance July 31
*PRICE: 92.896 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 92.784 - 2017 Low July 31
*SUP 2: 92.568 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 92.330 - 200-WMA
*SUP 4: 91.919 - 2016 Low May 3 2016
*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Thursday's lack of downside follow
through with bears reasserting dominance and immediate pressure now on
91.919-92.330 where the 200-WMA is located. O/S daily studies remain the key
concern for bears. Bulls still need a close above 93.650 to ease bullish
pressure and above 94.602 to shift focus to 94.759-95.464 where the 21-DMA
(94.759) is noted.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.228-229 Support Key
*RES 4: 2.366 - High July 13
*RES 3: 2.354 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 2: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14
*RES 1: 2.313 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: 2.303 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.285 - Hourly support July 31 
*SUP 2: 2.273 - Low July 31 
*SUP 3: 2.249 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: 2.241 - Hourly support July 24
*COMMENTARY: The rejection around 2.337 last week left the yield looking heavy
and immediate focus on 2.228-229 where the 200-WMA is situated. Bears look for a
close below the 200-WMA (2.228) to confirm focus back on the 2.103 2017 low and
below 2.103 to target 1.879. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a
close above 2.337 to see pressure back on 2.354-396 where the bear channel top
and July highs are located.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U17) Bulls Focused On $50.70-51.30 
*RES 4: $51.30 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: $51.11 - Low May 23 now resistance 
*RES 2: $50.83 - Daily Bear channel top 
*RES 1: $50.70 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*PRICE: $50.27 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $50.10 - Hourly resistance July 31 now support 
*SUP 2: $49.18 - Low July 31 
*SUP 3: $48.88 - Low July 28 
*SUP 4: $48.64 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus is now on the $50.70-51.30 region where the daily
bear channel top and 200-DMA are located. Bulls look for a close above the
200-DMA to initially target $52.63 with overall focus on $54.76 Apr highs. O/B
studies and the Bollinger top ($50.43) remain concerns for bulls. Bears now need
a close below $50.10 to gain breathing room and below the 100-DMA to shift focus
back to $47.08-86 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Initial Focus On $1280.8
*RES 4: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9 
*RES 3: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 
*RES 2: $1280.8 - High June 14 
*RES 1: $1277.5 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: $1269.7 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1265.7 - Low July 31 
*SUP 2: $1262.2 - Hourly support July 28 
*SUP 3: $1257.0 - Low July 28 
*SUP 4: $1252.7 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the dip Wednesday with gold finding
support ahead of $1242.4, resulting in a close above the $1258.8 resistance that
shifted initial focus to $1280.8 and overall focus to tests of 2017 highs. The
Bollinger top & O/B studies remain key concerns. Bears now look for a close
below $1262.2 to gain breathing room and below $1252.7 to shift focus to the
$1242.4 support.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
Close
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
 of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        window.dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'logedout',
    'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut'
  });
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        (function appendPosts () {  
    var policyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('policy-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var policyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.policy-posts-span');
    policyPostsMenu.append(policyPosts);
    policyPosts.style.display = "block";
  
    var empolicyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('em-policy-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var empolicyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.em-policy-posts-span');
    empolicyPostsMenu.append(empolicyPosts);
    empolicyPosts.style.display = "block";

    var dataPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('data-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var dataPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.data-posts-span');
    dataPostsMenu.append(dataPosts);
    dataPosts.style.display = "block";
})();
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelectorAll(".my-mni").forEach(function(item){
  item.href="/core/users/email_login/";
  item.innerHTML="Log In";
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => {
  window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
  dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'submission_click',
    'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks",
     'event_label': "Posts" 
  });  
  
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){
  item.onsubmit=function(e){
    ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15});
    window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
    dataLayer.push({
      'event' : 'signup_click',
      'event_category': "Signup",
      'event_action': 'CompletedForm',
       'event_label': 'pageTitle',
      'event_value': 15
    });  
  }
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelectorAll("img").forEach(function (img) {
    img.addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) {
      return false;
    });
  });
  document
    .querySelector(".site-logo img")
    .addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) {
      return true;
    });
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => {
  window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
  dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'submission_click',
    'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks",
     'event_label': "Posts" 
  });  
  
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){
  item.onsubmit=function(e){
    ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15});
    window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
    dataLayer.push({
      'event' : 'signup_click',
      'event_category': "Signup",
      'event_action': 'CompletedForm',
       'event_label': 'pageTitle',
      'event_value': 15
    });  
  }
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        
  let posts = document.querySelectorAll(".all-content-wrapper .widget:not(.stream-story-processed)");
  window.check_story_posts(posts, "streamOfPosts");
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) {
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });

  let country_code =
    c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto";
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
}

const fetch = function (err, res) {
  var r = new XMLHttpRequest();
  r.open("GET", err, !0),
    (r.responseType = "json"),
    (r.onload = function () {
      var err = r.status;
      res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response);
    }),
    r.send();
};

function setupCountry() {
  if (window.preventDuplicateExec) {
    return;
  }
  window.preventDuplicateExec = true;

  window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({
    threshold: 0,
    firstOnly: true,
    oneTime: true,
    selector: ".signup-form",
    onIntersect: (entry) => {
      // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way:
      let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData");
      if (!ipapiData) {
        fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) {
          console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API ");
          localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData));
          populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData);
        });
      } else {
        console.log(
          "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage"
        );
        populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData));
      }
    },
  });
}

setupCountry();
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        /*
const sidebar = document.querySelector('.left-sidebar-container');
const stickyContent = document.querySelector('.sticky-content');
const siteContent = document.querySelector('.all-posts-stream');
if (sidebar && stickyContent && siteContent) {
  if (siteContent.clientHeight > sidebar.clientHeight) {
    console.log('grater -> ', siteContent.clientHeight + ' > ' + sidebar.clientHeight);
    stickyContent.style.height = (siteContent.clientHeight - sidebar.clientHeight) + 'px';
  }
}
*/
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) {
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });

  let country_code =
    c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto";
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
}

const fetch = function (err, res) {
  var r = new XMLHttpRequest();
  r.open("GET", err, !0),
    (r.responseType = "json"),
    (r.onload = function () {
      var err = r.status;
      res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response);
    }),
    r.send();
};

function setupCountry() {
  if (window.preventDuplicateExec) {
    return;
  }
  window.preventDuplicateExec = true;

  window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({
    threshold: 0,
    firstOnly: true,
    oneTime: true,
    selector: ".signup-form",
    onIntersect: (entry) => {
      // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way:
      let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData");
      if (!ipapiData) {
        fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) {
          console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API ");
          localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData));
          populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData);
        });
      } else {
        console.log(
          "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage"
        );
        populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData));
      }
    },
  });
}

setupCountry();
    

});