MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

1 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On $1.1870

*RES 4: $1.2352 High Dec 18 2014 

*RES 3: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014 

*RES 2: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 2 

*RES 1: $1.1870 High Jan 12 2015

*PRICE: $1.1827 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1806 Hourly support July 31 

*SUP 2: $1.1763 Hourly resistance July 31 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1723 Low July 31 

*SUP 4: $1.1704 Hourly support July 28

*COMMENTARY: Gains Monday see immediate focus on the $1.1870 resistance with the

Bollinger top ($1.1860) and O/B daily studies seen as concerns for bulls. The

pair closed above the 200-WMA ($1.1788) which adds support to the bullish case

with bulls now looking for a weekly close above this level. Bears now need a

close below $1.1763 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below $1.1704 to

shift focus back to $1.1611-48.

CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.5157

*RES 4: $1.3539 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1.3445 Monthly High Sept 6 

*RES 2: $1.3278 High Sept 19 

*RES 1: $1.3223 2017 High July 31

*PRICE: $1.3212 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3191 Hourly support Aug 1 

*SUP 2: $1.3157 High July 27 Now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3135 Hourly resistance July 31 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3094 Low July 31

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on $1.3157 took its toll with a break higher and bullish

close that sees bulls now initially focused on $1.3278 and then $1.3445-1.3539

where monthly highs and the 100-WMA are located. Layers of support are building

with bears now needing a close below $1.3157 to ease bullish pressure and below

$1.3094 to shift focus back to $1.3004-10 where the 21-DMA is located. The

Bollinger top ($1.3215) is the key concern for bulls.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y110.85 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: Y111.70 Hourly support July 26 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27 

*RES 2: Y110.85 Hourly resistance July 28 

*RES 1: Y110.47 Hourly resistance July 31

*PRICE: Y110.16 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.83 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: Y109.70 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y109.25 Low June 15 

*SUP 4: Y108.69 Monthly Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on Y110.34 took its toll with the pair remaining heavy and

bears focused on Y108.69-109.70 where the 55-WMA and monthly lows are situated.

Layers of resistance are building with bulls needing a close above Y110.85 to

gain breathing room and hint at a bounce back to layers of resistance

Y111.39-112.87 where DMAs are located. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base

remain key concerns for bears with potential to limit follow through.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of Y130.75

*RES 4: Y130.87 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Y130.75 2017 High July 11 

*RES 2: Y130.59 High July 31 

*RES 1: Y130.38 Hourly support Aug 1 now resistance

*PRICE: Y130.24 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.09 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: Y129.62 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.76 Low July 20 

*SUP 4: Y128.48 Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Yet another topside failure ahead of Y130.75 sees focus back on the

21-DMA that supported on dips last week. Bears look for a close below the 21-DMA

to see pressure back on the Y128.48 support and below this level to hint at a

move back to the 55-DMA (Y126.61). Initial resistance is now noted at Y130.38

with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and retain focus on

Y130.75. Above Y130.75 targets Y131.64-132.23.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8928

*RES 4: Gbp0.9068 High Oct 13

*RES 3: Gbp0.9025 High Nov 9

*RES 2: Gbp0.8994 2017 High July 21

*RES 1: Gbp0.8975 High July 31

*PRICE: Gbp0.8947 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8928 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8890 Low July 27 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8876 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8867 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the lack of follow through on the break below

$0.8898 last week but now look for a close above $0.8975 to pressure 2017 highs

and then the Gbp0.9025-68 region above. The Gbp0.8928 support remains key with

bears needing a close below to shift focus back to Gbp0.8876-90 where the 21-DMA

is located. Daily studies looking to correct from O/B remain the key concern for

bulls.

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7992

*RES 4: $0.8295 - 2015 High Jan 15 

*RES 3: $0.8163 - Monthly High May 14 2015 

*RES 2: $0.8144 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27

*PRICE: $0.8033 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.8005 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7992 - Hourly resistance July 31 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7934 - Low July 28 

*SUP 4: $0.7905 - Hourly support July 25

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have regained the upper hand with the break back above

$0.8018 that sees immediate pressure back on 2017 highs. The 200-WMA comes in at

$0.8002 with a weekly close above needed to add support to the bullish case for

a move back to $0.8163-0.8295. O/B studies remain the key concern for bulls.

Bears now need a close below $0.7992 to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7934

to shift focus back to $0.7838-74.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 200-WMA In The Sights

*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27 

*RES 2: 93.650 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: 93.161 - Hourly resistance July 31

*PRICE: 92.896 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.784 - 2017 Low July 31

*SUP 2: 92.568 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 92.330 - 200-WMA

*SUP 4: 91.919 - 2016 Low May 3 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Thursday's lack of downside follow

through with bears reasserting dominance and immediate pressure now on

91.919-92.330 where the 200-WMA is located. O/S daily studies remain the key

concern for bears. Bulls still need a close above 93.650 to ease bullish

pressure and above 94.602 to shift focus to 94.759-95.464 where the 21-DMA

(94.759) is noted.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.228-229 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.366 - High July 13

*RES 3: 2.354 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14

*RES 1: 2.313 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 2.303 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.285 - Hourly support July 31 

*SUP 2: 2.273 - Low July 31 

*SUP 3: 2.249 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.241 - Hourly support July 24

*COMMENTARY: The rejection around 2.337 last week left the yield looking heavy

and immediate focus on 2.228-229 where the 200-WMA is situated. Bears look for a

close below the 200-WMA (2.228) to confirm focus back on the 2.103 2017 low and

below 2.103 to target 1.879. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a

close above 2.337 to see pressure back on 2.354-396 where the bear channel top

and July highs are located.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U17) Bulls Focused On $50.70-51.30 

*RES 4: $51.30 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $51.11 - Low May 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: $50.83 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: $50.70 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $50.27 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $50.10 - Hourly resistance July 31 now support 

*SUP 2: $49.18 - Low July 31 

*SUP 3: $48.88 - Low July 28 

*SUP 4: $48.64 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus is now on the $50.70-51.30 region where the daily

bear channel top and 200-DMA are located. Bulls look for a close above the

200-DMA to initially target $52.63 with overall focus on $54.76 Apr highs. O/B

studies and the Bollinger top ($50.43) remain concerns for bulls. Bears now need

a close below $50.10 to gain breathing room and below the 100-DMA to shift focus

back to $47.08-86 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Initial Focus On $1280.8

*RES 4: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9 

*RES 3: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 2: $1280.8 - High June 14 

*RES 1: $1277.5 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1269.7 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1265.7 - Low July 31 

*SUP 2: $1262.2 - Hourly support July 28 

*SUP 3: $1257.0 - Low July 28 

*SUP 4: $1252.7 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the dip Wednesday with gold finding

support ahead of $1242.4, resulting in a close above the $1258.8 resistance that

shifted initial focus to $1280.8 and overall focus to tests of 2017 highs. The

Bollinger top & O/B studies remain key concerns. Bears now look for a close

below $1262.2 to gain breathing room and below $1252.7 to shift focus to the

$1242.4 support.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]