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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
2 August 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Topside Hesitation Less Than Ideal
*RES 4: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014
*RES 3: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 2
*RES 2: $1.1870 High Jan 12 2015
*RES 1: $1.1845 2017 High July 31
*PRICE: $1.1823 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1784 Low Aug 1
*SUP 2: $1.1763 Hourly resistance July 31 now support
*SUP 3: $1.1723 Low July 31
*SUP 4: $1.1704 Hourly support July 28
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 2017 high is a concern for bulls given
daily studies at O/B levels and looking to correct. The 200-WMA comes in around
$1.1788 with bulls looking for a weekly close above to target $1.2254. Bears
need a close below $1.1763 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below $1.1704
to shift focus back to $1.1611-48. Bulls now look a close above $1.1870 to
reconfirm a bullish bias.
CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3157
*RES 4: $1.3539 100-WMA
*RES 3: $1.3445 Monthly High Sept 6
*RES 2: $1.3278 High Sept 19
*RES 1: $1.3242 2017 High Aug 1
*PRICE: $1.3202 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3191 Hourly support Aug 1
*SUP 2: $1.3157 High July 27 Now support
*SUP 3: $1.3135 Hourly resistance July 31 now support
*SUP 4: $1.3094 Low July 31
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on $1.3157 took its toll with a break higher and bullish
close that sees bulls now initially focused on $1.3278 and then $1.3445-1.3539
where monthly highs and the 100-WMA are located. Layers of support are building
with bears now needing a close below $1.3157 to ease bullish pressure and below
$1.3094 to shift focus back to $1.3004-27 where the 21-DMA is located. The
Bollinger top ($1.3237) is the key concern for bulls.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y110.85
*RES 4: Y112.23 200-DMA
*RES 3: Y111.70 Hourly support July 26 now resistance
*RES 2: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27
*RES 1: Y110.85 Hourly resistance July 28
*PRICE: Y110.80 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.59 High Aug 1 now support
*SUP 2: Y110.30 Hourly support Aug 2
*SUP 3: Y109.91 Low Aug 1
*SUP 4: Y109.70 55-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of Y110.34 is less than
ideal given daily studies looking to correct from modestly O/S. Layers of
resistance remain with bulls needing a close above Y110.85 to gain breathing
room and hint at a bounce back to Y111.39-112.23 where DMAs are located. Initial
support is noted at Y110.60 with bears needing a close below to ease pressure on
Y110.85 and below Y110.30 to retain focus on Y108.69-109.70.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y130.37
*RES 4: Y132.90 Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 3: Y132.23 2016 High Jan 29 2016
*RES 2: Y131.64 High Feb 4 2016
*RES 1: Y131.02 Bollinger band top
*PRICE: Y130.92 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.59 High July 31 now support
*SUP 2: Y130.37 Hourly support Aug 1
*SUP 3: Y129.89 Low Aug 1
*SUP 4: Y129.76 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA has supported the past 2 weeks and provided the base for
a break of Y130.75 that sees bullish focus shift to Y131.64-132.23. The 200-WMA
comes in around Y130.65 with bulls needing a close above to add support to their
case. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit
follow through. Bears now need a close below Y130.37 to ease bullish pressure
and shift focus back to the 21-DMA once again.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Finding Support On Dips
*RES 4: Gbp0.9025 High Nov 9
*RES 3: Gbp0.8994 2017 High July 21
*RES 2: Gbp0.8975 High July 31
*RES 1: Gbp0.8956 Hourly resistance Aug 1
*PRICE: Gbp0.8947 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8922 Low Aug 1
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8890 Low July 27
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8886 21-DMA
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8867 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the break of Gbp0.8928 with support
emerging and pressure now back on the Gbp0.8956 resistance. Bulls continue to
look for a close above 2017 highs to reconfirm the bullish bias and initially
focus on Gbp0.9025-68. Bears now need a close below Gbp0.8922 to shift focus
back to layers of support Gbp0.8798-0.8890 where the bull channel base, 21 &
55-DMAs are located.
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7934 Support Now Key
*RES 4: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27
*RES 3: $0.8044 - High Aug 1
*RES 2: $0.8015 - Hourly support Aug 1 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1
*PRICE: $0.7953 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7934 - Low July 28
*SUP 2: $0.7905 - Hourly support July 25
*SUP 3: $0.7874 - Low July 21
*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support
*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of recent 2017 highs and a relatively bearish
close for the pair is less than ideal for bulls given daily studies correcting
from O/B. The $0.7934 support is now key. Bears look for a close below this
level to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and see initial focus back to
$0.7838-74. Bulls now need a close above $0.8015 to gain breathing room and a
close above $0.8065 to reconfirm the bullish bias and initially target $0.8163.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: O/S Daily Studies Key Concern
*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26
*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27
*RES 2: 93.650 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 1: 93.161 - Hourly resistance July 31
*PRICE: 93.106 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 92.777 - 2017 Low Aug 1
*SUP 2: 92.440 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 92.331 - 200-WMA
*SUP 4: 91.919 - 2016 Low May 3 2016
*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Thursday's lack of downside follow
through with bears reasserting dominance and immediate focus now on
91.919-92.331 where the 200-WMA is located. O/S daily studies remain the key
concern for bears. Bulls still need a close above 93.650 to ease bullish
pressure and shift immediate focus back to 94.357-616 where the 21-DMA (94.616)
is located.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.228-229 Support Key
*RES 4: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14
*RES 3: 2.321 - High Aug 1
*RES 2: 2.285 - Hourly support July 31 now resistance
*RES 1: 2.273 - Low July 31 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.266 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.251 - Low Aug 1
*SUP 2: 2.247 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 2.241 - Hourly support July 24
*SUP 4: 2.229 - Low July 21, Low July 24
*COMMENTARY: The pop above the 21-DMA (2.306) was rejected ahead of 2.337
resulting in pressure back on the 55-DMA and a bearish close. Layers of support
2.228-2.247 are now key. Bears need a close below the 200-WMA (2.228) to shift
immediate focus to tests of 2017 lows. Resistance layers are building with a
close above 2.285 needed to gain breathing room and above 2.337 to see pressure
back on 2.351-396 where the bear channel top and July highs are located.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U17) Resistance Layers Building
*RES 4: $50.10 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 3: $49.70 - Hourly resistance July 1a
*RES 2: $49.26 - Hourly resistance July 1
*RES 1: $48.92 - Hourly resistance July 2
*PRICE: $48.71 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $48.25 - Low July 27
*SUP 2: $47.86 - Low July 26
*SUP 3: $47.43 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support
*SUP 4: $47.08 - 55-DMA, 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: O/B studies appear to have impacted with the sell-off and bearish
close easing bullish pressure and shifting focus back to $47.08-86 where 21 &
55-DMAs are situated. Layers of resistance accumulating is weighing on U17 with
bulls now needing a close above $49.26 to gain breathing room and above $50.10
to shift focus back to layers of resistance $50.78-51.26 where the bear channel
top and 200-DMA ($51.26) are located.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1251.2-1262.2 Support Region Key
*RES 4: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6
*RES 3: $1280.8 - High June 14
*RES 2: $1280.1 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: $1274.0 - High Aug 1
*PRICE: $1266.1 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1262.2 - Hourly support July 28
*SUP 2: $1257.0 - Low July 28
*SUP 3: $1252.7 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support
*SUP 4: $1251.2 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls who are
initially focused on $1280.8 with overall focus on tests of 2017 highs. The
$1251.2-1262.2 support region remains key. Bears look for a close below $1262.2
to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to shift focus to the $1242.4
support. Bulls now need a close above $1280.8 to add support to their case for a
test of 2017 highs.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.