MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

2 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Topside Hesitation Less Than Ideal

*RES 4: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014 

*RES 3: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 2 

*RES 2: $1.1870 High Jan 12 2015 

*RES 1: $1.1845 2017 High July 31

*PRICE: $1.1823 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1784 Low Aug 1 

*SUP 2: $1.1763 Hourly resistance July 31 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1723 Low July 31 

*SUP 4: $1.1704 Hourly support July 28

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 2017 high is a concern for bulls given

daily studies at O/B levels and looking to correct. The 200-WMA comes in around

$1.1788 with bulls looking for a weekly close above to target $1.2254. Bears

need a close below $1.1763 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below $1.1704

to shift focus back to $1.1611-48. Bulls now look a close above $1.1870 to

reconfirm a bullish bias.

CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3157

*RES 4: $1.3539 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1.3445 Monthly High Sept 6 

*RES 2: $1.3278 High Sept 19 

*RES 1: $1.3242 2017 High Aug 1

*PRICE: $1.3202 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3191 Hourly support Aug 1 

*SUP 2: $1.3157 High July 27 Now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3135 Hourly resistance July 31 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3094 Low July 31

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on $1.3157 took its toll with a break higher and bullish

close that sees bulls now initially focused on $1.3278 and then $1.3445-1.3539

where monthly highs and the 100-WMA are located. Layers of support are building

with bears now needing a close below $1.3157 to ease bullish pressure and below

$1.3094 to shift focus back to $1.3004-27 where the 21-DMA is located. The

Bollinger top ($1.3237) is the key concern for bulls.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y110.85

*RES 4: Y112.23 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y111.70 Hourly support July 26 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27 

*RES 1: Y110.85 Hourly resistance July 28

*PRICE: Y110.80 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.59 High Aug 1 now support 

*SUP 2: Y110.30 Hourly support Aug 2 

*SUP 3: Y109.91 Low Aug 1 

*SUP 4: Y109.70 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of Y110.34 is less than

ideal given daily studies looking to correct from modestly O/S. Layers of

resistance remain with bulls needing a close above Y110.85 to gain breathing

room and hint at a bounce back to Y111.39-112.23 where DMAs are located. Initial

support is noted at Y110.60 with bears needing a close below to ease pressure on

Y110.85 and below Y110.30 to retain focus on Y108.69-109.70.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y130.37

*RES 4: Y132.90 Weekly Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Y132.23 2016 High Jan 29 2016 

*RES 2: Y131.64 High Feb 4 2016 

*RES 1: Y131.02 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y130.92 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.59 High July 31 now support 

*SUP 2: Y130.37 Hourly support Aug 1 

*SUP 3: Y129.89 Low Aug 1 

*SUP 4: Y129.76 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA has supported the past 2 weeks and provided the base for

a break of Y130.75 that sees bullish focus shift to Y131.64-132.23. The 200-WMA

comes in around Y130.65 with bulls needing a close above to add support to their

case. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit

follow through. Bears now need a close below Y130.37 to ease bullish pressure

and shift focus back to the 21-DMA once again.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Finding Support On Dips

*RES 4: Gbp0.9025 High Nov 9

*RES 3: Gbp0.8994 2017 High July 21

*RES 2: Gbp0.8975 High July 31

*RES 1: Gbp0.8956 Hourly resistance Aug 1

*PRICE: Gbp0.8947 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8922 Low Aug 1 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8890 Low July 27 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8886 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8867 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the break of Gbp0.8928 with support

emerging and pressure now back on the Gbp0.8956 resistance. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 2017 highs to reconfirm the bullish bias and initially

focus on Gbp0.9025-68. Bears now need a close below Gbp0.8922 to shift focus

back to layers of support Gbp0.8798-0.8890 where the bull channel base, 21 &

55-DMAs are located.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7934 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27 

*RES 3: $0.8044 - High Aug 1 

*RES 2: $0.8015 - Hourly support Aug 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1

*PRICE: $0.7953 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7934 - Low July 28 

*SUP 2: $0.7905 - Hourly support July 25 

*SUP 3: $0.7874 - Low July 21 

*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of recent 2017 highs and a relatively bearish

close for the pair is less than ideal for bulls given daily studies correcting

from O/B. The $0.7934 support is now key. Bears look for a close below this

level to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and see initial focus back to

$0.7838-74. Bulls now need a close above $0.8015 to gain breathing room and a

close above $0.8065 to reconfirm the bullish bias and initially target $0.8163.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: O/S Daily Studies Key Concern

*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27 

*RES 2: 93.650 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: 93.161 - Hourly resistance July 31

*PRICE: 93.106 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.777 - 2017 Low Aug 1

*SUP 2: 92.440 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 92.331 - 200-WMA

*SUP 4: 91.919 - 2016 Low May 3 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Thursday's lack of downside follow

through with bears reasserting dominance and immediate focus now on

91.919-92.331 where the 200-WMA is located. O/S daily studies remain the key

concern for bears. Bulls still need a close above 93.650 to ease bullish

pressure and shift immediate focus back to 94.357-616 where the 21-DMA (94.616)

is located.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.228-229 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14

*RES 3: 2.321 - High Aug 1

*RES 2: 2.285 - Hourly support July 31 now resistance

*RES 1: 2.273 - Low July 31 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.266 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.251 - Low Aug 1 

*SUP 2: 2.247 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.241 - Hourly support July 24 

*SUP 4: 2.229 - Low July 21, Low July 24

*COMMENTARY: The pop above the 21-DMA (2.306) was rejected ahead of 2.337

resulting in pressure back on the 55-DMA and a bearish close. Layers of support

2.228-2.247 are now key. Bears need a close below the 200-WMA (2.228) to shift

immediate focus to tests of 2017 lows. Resistance layers are building with a

close above 2.285 needed to gain breathing room and above 2.337 to see pressure

back on 2.351-396 where the bear channel top and July highs are located.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U17) Resistance Layers Building 

*RES 4: $50.10 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 3: $49.70 - Hourly resistance July 1a 

*RES 2: $49.26 - Hourly resistance July 1 

*RES 1: $48.92 - Hourly resistance July 2

*PRICE: $48.71 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $48.25 - Low July 27 

*SUP 2: $47.86 - Low July 26 

*SUP 3: $47.43 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support 

*SUP 4: $47.08 - 55-DMA, 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: O/B studies appear to have impacted with the sell-off and bearish

close easing bullish pressure and shifting focus back to $47.08-86 where 21 &

55-DMAs are situated. Layers of resistance accumulating is weighing on U17 with

bulls now needing a close above $49.26 to gain breathing room and above $50.10

to shift focus back to layers of resistance $50.78-51.26 where the bear channel

top and 200-DMA ($51.26) are located.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1251.2-1262.2 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 3: $1280.8 - High June 14 

*RES 2: $1280.1 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1274.0 - High Aug 1

*PRICE: $1266.1 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1262.2 - Hourly support July 28 

*SUP 2: $1257.0 - Low July 28 

*SUP 3: $1252.7 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support 

*SUP 4: $1251.2 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls who are

initially focused on $1280.8 with overall focus on tests of 2017 highs. The

$1251.2-1262.2 support region remains key. Bears look for a close below $1262.2

to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to shift focus to the $1242.4

support. Bulls now need a close above $1280.8 to add support to their case for a

test of 2017 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]